- This topic has 210 replies, 40 voices, and was last updated 12 years, 2 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I think you can use Sri Putra as a yard stick So You Think has now beaten Sri Putra by 5.5l twice at the same distance and it probably means he was actually beaten fair and square by Rewilding just like Workforce was beaten far and square.
So You Think still doesnt deserve freak horse status, like Sea The Stars imo.
Himself – that is fair enough. The Arc would be a new test for So You Think, one he has not faced before. But I disagree. I think, based on what I’ve seen, stamina would not be an issue.
The key factor in this race was speed. Although both exhibit a high cruising speed, Workforce does not possess the same level of speed as So You Think; i.e. the requisite speed to see off a high class 10f horse.
Aidan O’Brien said after the race that So You Think essentially has a miler’s speed which he put to good use over the trip. When listing SYT’s potential targets for the rest of the season, it was very telling that he did not mention the Arc – and for good reason. The very reason I cited, I would venture.
Over ten furlongs, So You Think will prove a tough nut to crack. But should the Coolmore team chance their arm and send him to Longchamps, then here’s one old(ish) punter who’ll be laying the antipodean wonder all day long.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Is it not possible that both improved on their Ascot running? Aidan O’Brien seemed certain he had So You Think in better form today than at Ascot. I think he did give a better performance today than at Ascot, as Jonibake has said he seemed to finish his race with more ease and to better effect. Plain and simply questioned were raised about his ability to stay 10f after the Prince Of Wales, now 12f doesn’t seem out of the question.
Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore always have one eye on the stallion fee. Do you expect them to say "So You Think isn’t as good as the Godolphin horse"? Of course they’re going to make an excuse. To think both 5 year olds (SYT and Sri Putra) improved at almost exact same rate seems very unlikely to me.
So You think "seemed to finish with more ease and to better effect" because there was one next to him (Workforce) going slower. Where as in the POW Rewilding was going faster, making So You think look slower. If Rewilding was a non-runner, you would have seen SYT go 6 lengths clear of the field and thought how well he finished.
I don’t think many people questioned whether SYT stayed 10f. They just questioned tactics. For although the Irish trained horse is just as effective in a strong or slower run race; Rewilding probably needs a truly run 10f to be seen at best. ie Had the pace of the POW been slow Rewilding would not have been able to show his form.
Value Is EverythingHimself – that is fair enough. The Arc would be a new test for So You Think, one he has not faced before. But I disagree. I think, based on what I’ve seen, stamina would not be an issue.
The key factor in this race was speed. Although both exhibit a high cruising speed, Workforce does not possess the same level of speed as So You Think; i.e. the requisite speed to see off a high class 10f horse.
Aidan O’Brien said after the race that So You Think essentially has a miler’s speed which he put to good use over the trip. When listing SYT’s potential targets for the rest of the season, it was very telling that he did not mention the Arc – and for good reason. The very reason I cited, I would venture.
Over ten furlongs, So You Think will prove a tough nut to crack. But should the Coolmore team chance their arm and send him to Longchamps, then here’s one old(ish) punter who’ll be laying the antipodean wonder all day long.
I would venture otherwise. Ballydoyle have Treasure Beach, St. Nicholas Abbey and Await The Dawn for the Arc. Add in Seville and Recital if you want. Coolmore also have Pour Moi. That is probably why he won’t run, not because they are convinved he won’t stay.
So You Think has a lot of speed and Aidan will emphasise that because it suits his post-racing career too. However, he has enough class and stamina to get involved in an Arc as well.
I think he has improved too but not by much. Maybe 2lbs.
The Sri Putra argument is a bit of a fallacy. I would bear it in my mind but at the same time, wouldn’t read so much into it.
And I think he will improve again, and will continue to do so until he’s had his lot for the season, which may be in 2/3 races time.
I would venture otherwise. Ballydoyle have Treasure Beach, St. Nicholas Abbey and Await The Dawn for the Arc. Add in Seville and Recital if you want. Coolmore also have Pour Moi. That is probably why he won’t run, not because they are convinved he won’t stay.
So You Think has a lot of speed and Aidan will emphasise that because it suits his post-racing career too. However, he has enough class and stamina to get involved in an Arc as well.
Another key point must be mentioned: many Aus/NZ born runner drop back from their optimum distance in southern hemisphere. e.g. Starcraft and Elvstroem. Although So You Think may not follow their footstep, he would not go further than 10F to put his stallion value on risk. Aidan wording for his speed , ummm—Aus and NZ horses are born speed. From my observation in HK, drop back in distance for them is very adoptable.
"Gingertipster" wrote:
Is it not possible that both improved on their Ascot running? Aidan O’Brien seemed certain he had So You Think in better form today than at Ascot. I think he did give a better performance today than at Ascot, as Jonibake has said he seemed to finish his race with more ease and to better effect. Plain and simply questioned were raised about his ability to stay 10f after the Prince Of Wales, now 12f doesn’t seem out of the question.
Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore always have one eye on the stallion fee. Do you expect them to say "So You Think isn’t as good as the Godolphin horse"? Of course they’re going to make an excuse. To think both 5 year olds (SYT and Sri Putra) improved at almost exact same rate seems very unlikely to me.
So You think "seemed to finish with more ease and to better effect" because there was one next to him (Workforce) going slower. Where as in the POW Rewilding was going faster, making So You think look slower. If Rewilding was a non-runner, you would have seen SYT go 6 lengths clear of the field and thought how well he finished.
I don’t think many people questioned whether SYT stayed 10f. They just questioned tactics. For although the Irish trained horse is just as effective in a strong or slower run race; Rewilding probably needs a truly run 10f to be seen at best. ie Had the pace of the POW been slow Rewilding would not have been able to show his form.
I know Ballydoyle hype their horses for stud purposes. However, I think they thought the Prince of Wales would be a walk in the park. AOB stated before today’s race that So You Think was exactly where he wanted him. If he lost today’s race it was game over, ball burst, as far as the ‘wonder horse’ status goes. there would have been absolutely no excuses. (Personally I don’t see him as a wonder horse, but a top class animal nonetheless. He has yet to do anything on these shores to be elevated to the level of Zarkava or Sea The Stars.)
I don’t think it’s a case of So You Think and Sri Putra improving ability-wise Ginger, rather put in improved performances. If Wayne Rooney scores no goals today and 4 tomorrow, it doesn’t mean he’s improved as a football. I think it’s plausible that both horses gave better performances today than at Ascot.
AOB gave an interesting interview in an Aussie newspaper before Ascot (I think someone put the link on this somewhere), where he said he hadn’t stepped up his work since the Tattersalls Gold Cup, so I think it’s possible, likely even, that So You Think has given an improved performance.
In my opinion Sri Putra was gaining (albeit slowly) on So You Think at the finish of the Prince Of Wales. If they had gone further that day I believe Sri Putra would have closed further on So You Think. Today, there is little doubt that So You Think was putting distance between himself and Sri Putra at the line, and if the had another furlong there would more than likely have been more than 5.5 lengths between them Of course this is all just my opinion. That is why I believe So You Think finished his race better today.
A few on here said that a strongly run 10f stretched So You Think’s stamina, and that a drop in trip would suit on these shores.
Has he an entry in next week’s July Cup?
PS: I havn’t a clue why I can’t quote properly!?
Agreed THM – he’s no wonderhorse but he’s seriously good and proved it today with a performance that will almost certainly receive a higher rating than Ascot – not massively higher, but higher.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I think he has improved too but not by much. Maybe 2lbs.
The Sri Putra argument is a bit of a fallacy. I would bear it in my mind but at the same time, wouldn’t read so much into it.
And I think he will improve again, and will continue to do so until he’s had his lot for the season, which may be in 2/3 races time.
Timeform has him up one at 134. Second best Eclipse performance in recent years.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I think he has improved too but not by much. Maybe 2lbs.
The Sri Putra argument is a bit of a fallacy. I would bear it in my mind but at the same time, wouldn’t read so much into it.
And I think he will improve again, and will continue to do so until he’s had his lot for the season, which may be in 2/3 races time.
Timeform has him up one at 134. Second best Eclipse performance in recent years.
O.K. I am not familiar with Timeform’s ratings but think they usually rate horses maybe 3-4 higher than the official handicapper.
What did Timeform give him for the Prince of Wales’ Stakes?
And just as a general opinion. I think people get too caught in looking at a specific other horse to spin their point of view. In the POW everyone ignored planteur and just said sri putra was releveant.
There are several different ways to judge the form of a race. None of them are perfect because we are dealing with animals, humans and mother nature – who are all variable and never the same from one day to the next.
One of the ways I use is to calculate the WORST rating I can sensibly give the winner of a race. There is no point in calculating the BEST rating I could give because they are always unrealistic. In the POW at Ascot Rewilding gave Twice Over a beating of 25 pounds; if Twice Over ran to his best, then Rewilding is a 5 length better horse than both Brigadier Gerard or Sea Bird.
In the POW you could argue that Rewilding and SYT are both six lengths better than Planteur. But then you would have to accept that Sri Putra, by beating Planteur by half a length, had improved by 7 pounds above his best ever rating. He is a 5yo who has had 18 races, 8 of them of G1 or G2 and his best rating is fairly well accepted by most rational judges of form. I choose to believe that he ran up to his very best previous form in the POW but not any better than that, and therefore rate Rewilding and SYT accordingly.
It is subjective, but you have to make judgements about which choices are realistic and which choices are just wishful thinking. I really like Twice Over; he beat Sri Putra 8 lengths in last year’s Champion Stakes, and beat Fame And Glory by 4 lengths the previous year. But it is just wishful thinking on my part to hope that he is that good. I choose to accept the lines of form that are more realistic that tell me he is not that good.
Incidently, this is the same sort of reasoning that makes me not able to accept Dream Ahead as official joint champion two-year-old last year. Yes, he beat Approve and Strong Suit by 10 lengths in the Middle Park. But in that race he also beat Foghorn Leghorn By 10.5 lengths. You have to believe that Foghorn Leghorn improved by 15 to 20 pounds in the two weeks between his eighth and ninth races of the season, to justify saying Approve and Strong Suit ran to form, and that Dream Ahead was as good as the BHA official handicappers said. I do not think that is realistic.
There is more to a horses legacy than lbs given and lengths beaten…there is longevity, ambition and brilliance.
Zarkava and Sea The Stars have been mentioned as superior to So You Think.Zarkava made the wonderful Goldikova look an inferior horse, she was unbeaten and a champion at two and three but she only ever ran at Chantilly(1) and Longchamp(6). She never travelled more than 20 miles from her stable and ran only 7 times (4 of which were course & distance wins) and took on open company just once. So high on brilliance, no particular longevity and frankly not an ambitious program for a top French mare. Still…she really was something.
Sea The Stars was very good at two then went across Ireland, England and France beating everything in Europe and had more bouts than Sugar Ray Robinson in his three year old career. A race every month and with the possible exception of the Irish Derby he ducked nothing. No 4yo career though … but he really was something.
So You Think has won two Cox Plates, thats the equivalent of two Arc’s for a Southern hemisphere horse (think Alleged) he then gets shipped all the way across the world and with one blip has added two more G1s beating a trained on Derby and Arc winner in the best of them.
So he has raced for 3 seasons in the highest company available to date, has ducked nothing including taking on his country’s most prestigous race despite it being a significantly unsuitable distance and he has then went to the Northern hemisphere and proved himself a top notcher at 10f with more opportunities to come.He may not be a ‘wonderhorse’ but he really is something.
Having watched the race it was an above average renewal, Workforce has clearly improved from 3 to 4 as you would expect from his trainer. The Winner is a decent horse who took a little while to find top gear and was a comfortable winner in the end, already pulling himself up before the lollipop. Seamie Heffernan rode the winner with the confidence that he was on the best horse in the race, and deserves credit as he would no doubt have been castigated had things gone awry.
From a commercial point of view, connexions of Workforce must be desperate to get a 10f Group One out of him as he looks destined for a career as a jumping stallion. As for the winner, a meeting with Frankel would be interesting, over a mile you would fancy Frankel, 10f So You Think.The over-riding fact from today’s race, neither animal is anywhere near Sea the Stars, a genuine Superstar.
I think he has improved too but not by much. Maybe 2lbs.
The Sri Putra argument is a bit of a fallacy. I would bear it in my mind but at the same time, wouldn’t read so much into it.
And I think he will improve again, and will continue to do so until he’s had his lot for the season, which may be in 2/3 races time.
Timeform has him up one at 134. Second best Eclipse performance in recent years.
O.K. I am not familiar with Timeform’s ratings but think they usually rate horses maybe 3-4 higher than the official handicapper.
What did Timeform give him for the Prince of Wales’ Stakes?
They gave him 133 so up 1 lb today. Fascinating debates but my wife just said "you’ve spent all ******* day WATCHING the horseracing – are you now going to spend all ******* night with your geeky friends WRITING about it?!!!"
That’s my cue to leave. Good night Geeky Friends!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
So You Think beat Sri Putra 6 lengths at Ascot.
So You Think beat Sri Putra 5 1/2 lengths at Sandown.
Sri Putra is a totally exposed 5 year old. I am willing to believe he ran a pound below form at Ascot but no more.
So You think is a top class genuine and consistent horse, but his form is also now exposed. I don’t see any evidence to suggest So You Think improved on Prince Of Wales form.Just some basic form-reading sense: The pace probably wasn’t as quick here as it was at Ascot. That would constrict the margins of defeat. Ground was also faster than at Ascot, which would do the same.
I’m not willing to say anything about whether or not SYT has improved just yet. Workforce was no wonderhorse at 3 but off that performance I think he’s improved from last year a bit. I’m glad people are recognizing Rewilding as a very good horse now.
Like I’ve said before, saying that Planteur ran to form in the Prince of Wales’ is crazy. You’d then have to downgrade Cirrus Des Aigles who has been remarkably consistent, and by proxy Sarafina and Goldikova. The French form is too solid to dismiss Planteur as that bad.
Being a southern hemisphere horse, is So You Think technically older than the other horses? Seem to remember something about that when it was the fashion to buy New Zealand breds over the jumps. [no; he’s a 5 year old, isn’t he, does that make him a lot younger than other 5 year olds, then? sorry; get confused about such things…]
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.