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Looking back through all 3 of SYT’s runs this prep I’m not sure he’s going as well as when Bart had him. Campanologist stuck on pretty well behind him and that’s the 2nd time they’ve met remember in the Cup he couldn’t get within a bulls roar.
Also, SYT is a gun horse, but even in Australia it was only the hype merchants comparing him to the likes of Kingston Town. He’s not THAT good.
Will be a great race and I will have eyes glued cheering him on from down under!
Workforce drift is very worrying.
Stoutey hasn’t had a winner since the day of his five-timer on 11th June. Though several have run well in defeat, it is not up to his usual strike rate. Might there be a minor virus in the yard?
A similar run of poor form preceded Workforce’s poor effort in the King George last year. Although three year olds are more susceptible to minor viruses than older horses, Workforce now being a year older.
Probability is Workforce will run and will run well on Saturday. But it would not be a surprise if he doesn’t turn up or doesn’t run well. And that has to be taken account of in calculations.
An unwritten rule in punting is not to make excuses prior to the race! It is also not being very respectful to Sir Michael,do you actually think that he would run Workforce if he had a virus? That is why you get blood counts,to ensure all is well.He hasn’t had a winner for 19 days,well what a drought it is! I suspect you may be on Workforce and an avalanche of money has come for the favourite,why? Well Workforce was too short to start with on his one run this time in,and the favourite was a bit generous with that taken into account.In summary a convenient excuse if the horse isn’t up to it.
Initially ( i.e. a couple of weeks ago ) I slightly favoured Workforce; on the grounds that he has beaten better class animals than So You Think and has a course and distance win under his belt.
However, the big negative is that Sir Michael Stoute’s stable is out of form/under performing/ not firing, call it what you like – and that for me is very telling – especially when his top horse is about to compete in a Group One race over a distance short of his ideal trip.
On the other hand, Aidan O’Brien’s yard is on fire at the right time and the vibes emanating from Coolmore remain very positive over So You Think’s chances of winning.
The trip is perfect, the horse has the necessary speed and the stable is in top form.
winner – So You Think !
easy game this, isn’t it ?
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
@ reet hard, probably worth noting when he won in australia from the front that the races weren’t run at any great pace, so obviously it’s tough (for any horse) to catch him in that situation when he leads a moderately run race, his turn of foot + the slight lead is too much.
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Workforce DERBY/ARC winner! wins, the horse destroyed a field on his debut despite being about 30% fit.
So You Think, the Emerald dog, yet again will come up short at World Class level.
Ladbrokes "we took a £40k bet" Oh yeah mate, I’m sure you did, how can people not get £40 on with you then? this is just an excuse for you to get mug punters who think So You Think is the next Mill Reef, Sea Bird, Dancing Brave by going on odds on against Workforce.
Workforce is trainned by a better trainer
Workforce is faster
Workforce is classier
Workforce has more stamina
Workforce has had the perfect preperation
Workforce WINS"The absoulute garbage spouted about So You Think from critics is unbelievable. The tactics and jockey’s on the Coolmore team lost one of Britain’s Best races. You swear to god he was stuffed half a furlong in the Harwicke.
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The absoulute garbage spouted about So You Think from critics is unbelievable. The tactics and jockey’s on the Coolmore team lost one of Britain’s Best races. You swear to god he was stuffed half a furlong in the Harwicke.
The horse lost to Rewilding who needs an extra 2 furlongs and if that was a race with an extra 2 furlongs then he would have lost 8-10 lengths. He beat Sri Putra 6l tieng up at the finish? hardly the greatest horse to ever touch this planet like some are saying.
Even ATR have made a montage on this horse, what a pathetic little company they are.
Rewilding is a very good horse if raced properly would you not say Mr. Wilson??. Where is the evidence that 2f suits him more that a strongly run 10f race on a decent stiff track. He didn’t stay a yard past 1m4f last season in the Leger on a proper stiff track.
All his best efforts are below 12f
2nd to planteur
1st in Goodwood
1st in Prince of WalesYou could argue that he is a fine horse over 12f winning the leger trial and that donkey race out in Dubai but he has beaten proper horses between 10f-11f and not average horses like Midas Touch and Redwood over the longer trip.
People vastly underate Rewilding IMO. He is a top class horse if prepared to race properly.
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Rewilding is a very good horse if raced properly would you not say Mr. Wilson??. Where is the evidence that 2f suits him more that a strongly run 10f race on a decent stiff track. He didn’t stay a yard past 1m4f last season in the Leger on a proper stiff track.
All his best efforts are below 12f
2nd to planteur
1st in Goodwood
1st in Prince of WalesYou could argue that he is a fine horse over 12f winning the leger trial and that donkey race out in Dubai but he has beaten proper horses between 10f-11f and not average horses like Midas Touch and Redwood over the longer trip.
People vastly underate Rewilding IMO. He is a top class horse if prepared to race properly.
If you read last years Great Voltiguer thread you’ll see I clearly rate Rewilding as one of the top 1m4f horses in the world and he went on to frank my theory in Dubai and toppple the hyperbole off So You Think this year.
I agree with what you’re saying about who he beat over 12f but he can only beat who turns up? that’s what’s so great about times is you don’t need the field to turn up to be able to get a handle on the effort of a horses performance.
A strong run race is what Rewilding needs and he got one in the Prince of Wales, but who says that pace wasn’t to suit So You Think anyway?
Workforce drift is very worrying.
Stoutey hasn’t had a winner since the day of his five-timer on 11th June. Though several have run well in defeat, it is not up to his usual strike rate. Might there be a minor virus in the yard?
A similar run of poor form preceded Workforce’s poor effort in the King George last year. Although three year olds are more susceptible to minor viruses than older horses, Workforce now being a year older.
Probability is Workforce will run and will run well on Saturday. But it would not be a surprise if he doesn’t turn up or doesn’t run well. And that has to be taken account of in calculations.
An unwritten rule in punting is not to make excuses prior to the race!
Rubbish.
If I’d waited until after the race you’d say I should’ve said something before.
Every horse has reasons for it to run well and run poorly which can be clearly seen before the race. This race might come too soon after So you Think’s hard race at Ascot. Although he’s run well after only days off before, rarely has it been when all out after a strongly run race.
It’s part of the punter’s job to predict the chance of each individual ocurrence.It is also not being very respectful to Sir Michael,do you actually think that he would run Workforce if he had a virus? That is why you get blood counts,to ensure all is well. He hasn’t had a winner for 19 days,well what a drought it is!
Sir Michael Stoute is one of the best trainers we’ve ever seen. Of course he wouldn’t run the horse if knowing it had a virus. But no matter how many blood counts are done, they can’t be 100% accurate. I did say a "minor virus". These are more difficult to pinpoint in an individual horse. Just means it is not quite capable of producing its best. Often there is no way of recognising the general welfare of a yard other than strike rates and /or shiny and dappled coats. I would not describe the 19 days as a "drought" either. There have been some good placed efforts and could be a lot worse. But does need to be considered in the price any punter is willing to take. I grade every trainer’s form on the day before / day of race, have nothing against Sir Michael, indeed made the same type of comments about several others in the past including Mr O’Brien. In this case though, the Irishman is in very good form.
I suspect you may be on Workforce and an avalanche of money has come for the favourite,why? Well Workforce was too short to start with on his one run this time in,and the favourite was a bit generous with that taken into account.In summary a convenient excuse if the horse isn’t up to it.
Sorry to disappoint you JGreen, but I have yet to back anything in the Eclipse. Beginning to think 2/1 is worth the risk. Even with trainer form worries, probably has a better than 33% chance. I am a punter who backs price, not the horse; so it is absolutely essential for me to consider every eventuality BEFORE the race. Sorry if that might read like making excuses. However, if that is what they are, then I make excuses for every horse in the race.
Value Is EverythingSo You Think was without doubt the top Group 1 middle distance horse in Australia in recent years, but and it’s a big but: the horses he defeated in Oz were not of a high standard, and as trainer John Berry rightly pointed out in an interview with Sean Boyce on ATR today, nearly all of those So You Think has beaten when winning the Cox Plate etc would not be competitive in races such as our Eclipse Stakes – in fact, they’d be long odds against.
So from that perspective alone, Workforce’s form is much superior.
However, So You Think is a class act and was only just beaten at Ascot ( albeit by a stayer ) and all things considered, as I outlined earlier, he certainly has the beating of Workforce over this trip.
Over a mile and half, the odds would considerably favour Workforce.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Either,
(A) So You Think is a certainty or,
(B) Seamie Heffernan is on a suicide mission.
I like Heffernan if that means anything.I suspect you may be on Workforce and an avalanche of money has come for the favourite,why? Well Workforce was too short to start with on his one run this time in,and the favourite was a bit generous with that taken into account.In summary a convenient excuse if the horse isn’t up to it.
I wasn’t on Workforce, but I am now.
With both trainers in the same form I’d have made the big two around the same price.
With the "out of form" Stoutey, I now believe So You Think has the better chance of winning and should be favourite. However, the prices are now too far apart (imo).
There is no way So You Think has a 22% better chance than Workforce. (4/5 = 55.5%, 2/1 = 33.3%)
Trainer form worth taking the chance on @ 2/1 nrnb.
JGreen,
If So You Think wins, I can say I was right "I now believe So You Think has the better chance of winning".
If Workforce wins, I can say I was right "worth taking the chance on @ 2/1 nrnb".
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
@ reet hard, probably worth noting when he won in australia from the front that the races weren’t run at any great pace, so obviously it’s tough (for any horse) to catch him in that situation when he leads a moderately run race, his turn of foot + the slight lead is too much.
There’s the rub, RL, SYT still has to prove he stays a strongly run UK 10f against top class opposition and, given his Australian form and there’ll be no hiding place on Saturday, I seriously doubt he will.
Those banking on the Stoute stable being out of form might like to cast their minds back to last July, when some on here were singing the same tune, prior to Harbinger’s KG stroll in the park.
A similar run of poor form preceded Workforce’s poor effort in the King George last year. Although three year olds are more susceptible to minor viruses than older horses, Workforce now being a year older.
Probability is Workforce will run and will run well on Saturday. But it would not be a surprise if he doesn’t turn up or doesn’t run well. And that has to be taken account of in calculations.
With trainers in poor (or not so good) form some will run well and some won’t. Harbinger did run so well in the King George Reet,
when Workforce ran so lamentably
. I know with you everything is black or white Reet, but things are seldom so straight-forward. You like to pick a horse to be with, price matters less etc. which is fine. But I don’t.
Am not saying Workforce won’t win, I’ve backed him myself, just something to take in to consideration.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
As I recall, Ginger, SMS was quite clear about the reason for Workforce’s "lamentable run", and it had nothing to do with his other horses.
Hi fellas
Price differential looks too big to me too- SYT looks priced more on hype than the substance of his Northern Hemisphere form. Races down under are not as strongly run which may suit him better than Saturday where Workforce will keep tabs on Confront, who will surely keep them honest. If SYT gets beat on Saturday he may be on a plane to Oz in time for their breeding season….
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