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I’m surprised you have bought into the Rip Van Winkle hype CH.
I wouldn’t touch RVW with a bargepole at 9-2 and could easily see him out of the frame here – Conduit, Twice Over, Archipenko and CIma DT could all be good enough to finish ahead of him
Why won’t your firm give us more than 4/1 then!?
Well – he has been 9-2 with us all week and is (by far) our worst result in the race – we went 4-1 with Archipenko out.
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10 declared, including Lang Shining.
With him, 2 AoB horses as pacemakers and Twice Over in the line-up, it looks bound to be a proper test.
For the life of me, I still can’t see why RVW (Gp3 winnner, and unplaced in each of his last 3 starts) is the same price as Conduit (Dual gp1 winner, and only once out of the first 3 in his career) ?
Is AoB some kind of magician?
10 declared, including Lang Shining.
With him, 2 AoB horses as pacemakers and Twice Over in the line-up, it looks bound to be a proper test.
For the life of me, I still can’t see why RVW (Gp3 winnner, and unplaced in each of his last 3 starts) is the same price as Conduit (Dual gp1 winner, and only once out of the first 3 in his career) ?
Is AoB some kind of magician?It simply is the O’Brien factor (remember Oratorio) and the reputation the horse has through Johhny Murtagh’s comments.
In terms of value he’s absolutely shocking.
Wht price would you lay RVW at Ian ????
I wouldn’t as I don’t lay horses. However if you asked me what price I’d consider to be his true price Id say 8/1 or 9/1.
my points system
145 sea the stars
143 conduit
136 cima de triomphe
134 twice over
122 steele tango
122 rip van winkle
116 jukebox jury
108 malibu bay
107 lang shining
101 set sailwill back sea the stars
In the guineas rvw was only beaten 2/3 lengths by sts,if you watch the race again you will hes following sts then for some reason johnny m switches left he looses at least a length,then hes knocked side ways by the bolger horse and again looses his montenum, in the derby he was beaten a over a length coming from further back then sts did if he was only a length behind sts when he had started his run then i reckon he would of beaten him.So at his price i think hes great value.
I think Sea The Stars should win but it is Twice Over who’s slowly but surely got my attention and looks a cracking each-way bet. He’s had a couple of near misses of late and might just keep up the gallop this time
Totally agree with Graeme there….good post
Newyork For me that is a massive leap of the imagination. STS was cantering all over RVW in both races. A bit of this there and that here would have made no difference imo.
My only tiny doubt about STS is the possibility he idles slightly in front which can be fatal at Sandown. Otherwise he should be head and shoulders above these
Also why on earth shouldnt a fast pace over 10f (surely his optimum distance) suit STS best of all? He pulled away at the beggining of the derby and no doubt the usual energy was expended, but still had it at the end.
Having looked at this race upside down and inside out, I’ve come to the conclusion that if STS hacks up, fantastic he is some racehorse then, the true monster that was used to describe Conduit. At the prices however I could never bet him. Actually at the prices I have come around to Conduit, and whilst he is not yet the monster RH thinks he is, because he would have then given Cima de Triomphe a spanking in the Brigadier Gerard, that’s what monsters do in grp. 3 conditions regardless of the weight concession, he is a very solid betting proposition especially e/w which would negate almost all the risk as I have difficulty seeing him out of the first three.
Ten runners with essentially five no hopers and he should have the beating of Cima de T. on revised weight terms so that leaves four to fill the first three places. Pretty sure Twice Over is not better than Conduit which leaves three for the first three places. SMS will have brought him to peak condition and I’m confident Ryan Moore is chomping at the bit to taste some more grp.1 success, a definite plus the jockey at this track. The distance while a slight worry is mollified by the fact that he has course and distance experience so at 4/1 and better on the machine time to get the e/w betting boots on.
Off on holiday to deepest, darkest Wales this afternoon so will be unable to view the race live in all probability.
1. Sea The Stars
2. Rip Van Winkle
3. ConduitBet: Straight forecast SMS to beat RVP
Rationale: When the really good three year olds run here they usually winGood luck and enjoy
There was 10-15mm of overnight rain. Oxx dosen’t think it will be a problem as it should dry out sufficently enough to make the ground a similar going to Epsom. Let’s just hope there isn’t another downfall.
He pulled away at the beggining of the derby and no doubt the usual energy was expended, but still had it at the end.
It is most unlikely that STS expended excessive amounts of energy during the first part of the Derby because the early furlongs of the race were run at little more than a canter – which explains why STS "had it at the end" . Certainly Mick Kinane , unlike a few other jockeys , Fame & Glory’s in particular , had his mount perfectly positioned for when the sprint for home – which is exactly what happened – started.
I suppose we can only guess at what would have happened had the field been taken through more searching fractions – different tactics from Kinane isn’t hard to envisage ,imho.
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