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I’m surprised you have bought into the Rip Van Winkle hype CH.
He has never been placed in a Group 1 or 2, and has no excuses for his runs to date. Added to the fact you’ll have a 3 pound penalty (Heffernan riding in UK) and Sea the Stars who has easily beaten him twice, not to mention Conduit, Twice Over & Cima de Triomphe, who have all put in superior performances to RVW. He would be 10 or 12/1 if trained by anyone else.
What are the chances or picking up tickets (touts or otherwise) on the day?
Reported in today’s paper unlikely to be sold out but only packages available on course website.Quote – "It’s not at all uncommon for him to run his future stars in handicaps "
And who could forget Shareef Dancer.
I very much hope Heffernan does NOT ride Rip van Winkle.
Rip would have to be much the best horse for Heffernan to win on him.
A mile and quarter on fast ground is probably ideal for Rip but I don’t rate Heffernan at all.
Please Aidan get somebody else.
I very much hope Heffernan does NOT ride Rip van Winkle.
Rip would have to be much the best horse for Heffernan to win on him.
A mile and quarter on fast ground is probably ideal for Rip but I don’t rate Heffernan at all.
Please Aidan get somebody else.
Confirmed today that Jimmy Fortune will take the ride on Rip Van Winkle.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Based purely on value I’m gonna opt for Archipenko EW currently 25 on BF
2.5 lengths behind Presvis lto is good enough form to warrant a lower price and 10f being his best distance is more likely to run a good race than some of the others who aren’t proven winners over 10Well, according to the bookie’s and everyone else this is a three horse race. Which one is the better will be interesting to see. My own take on it as it stands at the moment, bearing in mind the likely going on the day and the forecast rain, is to play the waiting game. If the rains arrive it wouldn’t be the greatest shock for STS not to run. It possibly would play into Conduits hands. As I said interesting.
Mike.I’m surprised you have bought into the Rip Van Winkle hype CH.
He has never been placed in a Group 1 or 2, and has no excuses for his runs to date. Added to the fact you’ll have a 3 pound penalty (Heffernan riding in UK) and Sea the Stars who has easily beaten him twice, not to mention Conduit, Twice Over & Cima de Triomphe, who have all put in superior performances to RVW. He would be 10 or 12/1 if trained by anyone else.
I’m the last one taken in by any hype about the horse Andrew- in fact I laid him in the Derby. My reasons for backing him now include the excellent each-way shape to this race, the poor recent record of Derby winners (Motivator, Authorised anybody?) and the fact that he fits the profile of several recent winners. He reminds me a bit of Hawk Wing in that they kept banging on about how brilliant he was but he kept underperforming on the track. He did however have some good days, the Eclipse being one of them. I don’t think it’s out of the question that RVW could do the same and I’ll be very surprised (and a lot poorer) if he doesn’t hit the frame in a very uncompetitive looking race. I can’t see Conduit having the speed for a Group 1 at this trip.
They have put Lang Shining in there to resolve the speed issue, think it will be a strongly run 1m2f, although it wont hinder Rip or STS.
Carvills – Benny The Dip too, not to mention Sakhee and Tobougg were both placed in the Derby and were beaten as short-price favourites.
The problem is that none of those showed anywhere near the amount of speed that Sea The Stars showed at Newmarket and all the 3-year-old winners since 1995 had run in the 2000 Guineas en route.
I’ll be extremely surprised if Sea The Stars is beaten, but Cima De Triomphe EW will be my major bet, but only if we don’t get rain.
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Carv
Neither Motivator or Authorized won a Guineas, nor were they considered even fast enough to run in one. While 10f would probably be RVW’s best trip, nothing in his 2 defeats behind STS suggests he has much chance of turning the tables, at any distance.
Re Conduit; he ran half-cooked, off an ordinary pace, on his seasonal debut; I’d be highly surprised if SMS can’t find at least 10lbs improvement on that form.Anyone who saw sts win the beresford stakes last oct would never in a million yrs had him down has a guineas winner he didnt look quick enough then, moviator and erhabb would imo been quick enough to have run in the their guineas both had a lot of speed that would of seen them there at the finish.
Carv
Neither Motivator or Authorized won a Guineas, nor were they considered even fast enough to run in one. While 10f would probably be RVW’s best trip, nothing in his 2 defeats behind STS suggests he has much chance of turning the tables, at any distance.
Re Conduit; he ran half-cooked, off an ordinary pace, on his seasonal debut; I’d be highly surprised if SMS can’t find at least 10lbs improvement on that form.I wouldn’t agree with that entirely Reet. I reckon RVW showed a glimps of what’s to come in the Derby when he eventually got going.
When the race eventually got started in earnest and everone was at it RVW was in front of Masterofthehorse but he passed him and went a few lengths clear of him.
I think it was then we saw what Johnny Murtagh see’s in this horse.
All too late RVW got himself together and it took him only 8 to 10 strides to all but make up the ground he had lost on Masterofthehorse.Sometimes horses can fool you at home into thinking they are more developed than they actually are. This could be the reason RVW hits this flat spot.
If the reason is he was still slightly undeveloped in the Guineas and the Derby, he could still turn out to be a very special horse.
You could just dismiss him and say he’s not good enough but personally I’d say he’s going to improve a lot with time.
It could come on Saturday or it might not come until next saeson but I believe he will turn out to be a top class horse before te end of the day.
One point is, horses that hit flat spots don’t often win when races turn into a sprint so the Derby pace probably never suited him as some people think.
The early pace of the Derby was so slow I think Radiohead would have got the trip
. Even coming down the hill they were very slow so it gave us very little idea how Sea the Stars or RVW will react to a very strong pace over this 1m2f. You would think they would both get the trip easy enough but there’s no gaurantee.As far as Conduit not having the speed at this trip Carv I’d dispute that big time. SMS has had this race in mind for him for a long time because he believe he has more than enough speed. He’s not a normal horse IMO and has a bit of the Kauto Star’s about him.I think too many people are falling into the trap and think because he won the St Leger he neeed an extreme distance to produce his turn of foot.
Having won the race 5 times I thnk SMS knows what’s required and has the right horse for the race.
I’m not concerned at all with him being 5 at Betfair We got an AOB horse and a dual classic winner there and those who knew Conduit was going for this backed him weeks ago.
I’m off to Hua Hin to do some design work on the house tomorrow for the next two weeks so I’ll only be dropping in from time to time. Staying on a deserted beach but no internet
I guess I’ll download the racing at an internet shop and burn to disc and watch on the Sunday.So good luck all
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I agree with everything Aristo said
Sorry about that I am reinstalling Windows on my other computer and this one logged me on automatically under my old handle.
The Eclipse was not Conduits long term target.
Tartan Bearer was going to be the runner (Stoute said this) but his path was completely re-routed when he failed to make the Curragh so they sent TB to Royal Ascot and decided to use Conduit here instead.
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Who told you that pile of Shyte? TAPK? I was suprised myself when I was told but really it made a lot of sense when I thought about it. I knew weeks ago and was told it was always the plan………I don’t put the money I have on him on a whim mate.
If SMS said that he’s telling someone porkies as I read only yesterday on the net somewhere that his targets from the start of the season were to run at Sandown, return for the Eclipse, then go for the KG and the Arc.
Was also something along the lines that the most important race was the Eclipse as it will add zillions to his stud value.
He would also be the first horse to do the ES KG double since Nashwan something Tartan Bearer wouldn’t have the class to do
To my knowledge SMS hasn’t said a thing about TD ever running in the Eclipse.
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