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I don’t think Tartan Bearer is as good a horse as conduit over any trip or on any ground.
I think Sea The Stars will be very difficult to beat in the Eclipse. Rip Van Winkle is interesting back at ten furlongs, could run a big race.
One thing I noticed about Conduit albeit in the St Leger is he quickened up to take it up along way out and then when the second got within striking distance he quicked up again after looking like he was flat to the boards. It takes a very good horse to do that and I’m not so sure Sea the Stars will find that bit extra if Conduit can get him at it about a furlong and a half out. The last couple of hundreds yard can be very important at Sandown and that’s where i am hoping Conduit can find that little bit more.
Rip Van Winkle just kooks to lack that little bit of toe to trouble these two. He couldn’t catch Sea the Star whe there was no pressure on him, in the Guineas or Derby, If he is going to beat Conduit I would imagine he is likely to be flat to the boards to do it which would make me think RVW will be beaten ever further this time. That said 1m2f could be his ideal trip and that would help his cause if it is.
Personally am not even bringing RVW into the equation. No surprise to see him become the new Norse Dancer. Couldn’t trouble STS over a mile and couldn’t trouble him over 12f so I don’t see how on earth he’ll trouble him over what’ll probably be STS’ optimum trip, even though I accept this could be RVW’s optimum trip as well.
I don’t think Tartan Bearer is as good a horse as conduit over any trip or on any ground.
I think Sea The Stars will be very difficult to beat in the Eclipse. Rip Van Winkle is interesting back at ten furlongs, could run a big race.
One thing I noticed about Conduit albeit in the St Leger is he quickened up to take it up along way out and then when the second got within striking distance he quicked up again after looking like he was flat to the boards. It takes a very good horse to do that and I’m not so sure Sea the Stars will find that bit extra if Conduit can get him at it about a furlong and a half out. The last couple of hundreds yard can be very important at Sandown and that’s where i am hoping Conduit can find that little bit more.
Rip Van Winkle just kooks to lack that little bit of toe to trouble these two. He couldn’t catch Sea the Star whe there was no pressure on him, in the Guineas or Derby, If he is going to beat Conduit I would imagine he is likely to be flat to the boards to do it which would make me think RVW will be beaten ever further this time. That said 1m2f could be his ideal trip and that would help his cause if it is.
I think Conduit is a top class horse Fist. The problem is there are eight likely to run at this moment in time and no front runner among them it could be a race run at no early gallop rather like the Derby was and once again it could play to the strengths of Sea The Stars,
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A Definite worry but SMS may have already thought of that. Conduit has been working with Lang Shining at home and I believe the plan is to run him too.
Conduit is a top class horse but he doesn’t quite have the change of gear Sea the Stars has. The weight allowance helps as well and he has to be the most likely winner.
I expect Dettori will set out to make it a true test if Campanologist runs and Rip van Winkle, who has a very similar profile to Oratorio, should benefit from that. Murtagh will hopefully ride him a bit closer to the pace as well.
I think the 3yo’s will dominate.
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Conduit was beaten in the Brigadier Gerard by being only half-cooked and off a steady pace – neither of which SMS is likely to allow again for Saturday’s race.
Sea The Stars may be a bit special, I believe Conduit will prove even more so.Conduit is top class no doubt, but he needs a miracle here, only Rip Van Winkle can beat him with the weight allownace, Conduit couldn’t fend off Cima De Triomphe giving him 7lbs, I can see no way Conduit can give Sea The Stars 11lbs and win this.
Conduit is top class no doubt, but he needs a miracle here, only Rip Van Winkle can beat him with the weight allownace, Conduit couldn’t fend off Cima De Triomphe giving him 7lbs, I can see no way Conduit can give Sea The Stars 11lbs and win this.
Its not really giving weight though is it as its weight for age so effectively its level weights. If three year olds had to take on older horses off true levels at this time of the year they’d need a miracle. I wouldn’t even consider the weights in this equation.
The only slight negative I can come up with for Sea The Stars is, that since Mill Reef won the race back in 1971, of the few Derby winners to have contested the race in the same year, only Nashwan ( 1989 ) has succeeded in pulling off the double.
This year’s renewall should be quite interesting to say the least.
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Conduit is a top class horse but he doesn’t quite have the change of gear Sea the Stars has. The weight allowance helps as well and he has to be the most likely winner.
I expect Dettori will set out to make it a true test if Campanologist runs and Rip van Winkle, who has a very similar profile to Oratorio, should benefit from that. Murtagh will hopefully ride him a bit closer to the pace as well.
I think the 3yo’s will dominate.
"he doesn’t quite have the change of gear Sea the Stars has? Did you see the Breeders?. He gained 9 lengths on the leader over 300 mts.
In the Leger he quickened up twice!
The difference between the two horses is Conduit can sustain a long burst of acceleration all the way to the line. All we have seen from Sea the Stars is a short burst in the Guineas when Delegator challenged him and the same short burst at Epsom where he ran on well once in front.
Sea the Stars hasn’t shown a Nijinsky style burst of speed but he travels remakarbly well and can change gear to beat off his riivals. What we don’t know is can he do it if another horses get to him and he has to really fight.
The nearest we seen to it was Delegator but he never went through with his run.
Anyway he has to turn up first and I think if Oxx finds the grass is growing the wrong way he will make an excuse and bottle it.
SMS won’t that’s for sure (fingers crossed) He will become joint winning trainer with 6 wins in this race if Conduit does the business.
He comes, he doesn’t come, won’t make any difference Conduit will murder him for toe. Give him a fast pace and he’ll hit he front 1f out and Sea the Stars won’t see the way he went.
Now! is there anything else you wish to say apart from "you are prejudice Fist?
I would tend to agree with you Fist IF there is a good strong pace. I’d fancy Conduit to turn Sea The Stars over in that scenario. However if the pace isn’t furious I think Sea The Stars eight furlong speed may be decisive.
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I can almost guarantee that it won’t be a case of ‘Sea The Stars won’t see which way he went’ no matter how the race is run.
Having watched his Newmarket and Epsom performances numerous times the overriding feeling is that ten furlongs will be absolutely perfect for him, and given how strongly he travels I’ll be extremely surprised if Conduit beats him at all, let alone leaves him for dead.
The myth that Sea The Stars doesn’t get twelve furlongs is stull just that, a myth – his pedigree says he gets it and racecourse evidence does little to detract from that – and I don’t see any sort of pace troubling him. He’ll run as quickly as he has to to maintain a position and I doubt there are many 8-12 furlong horses with quite as potent a turn of foot.
And it has to be remembered that he’s still raced only five times – there could be plenty we haven’t seen yet (relative to Conduit at least).
I can almost guarantee that it won’t be a case of ‘Sea The Stars won’t see which way he went’ no matter how the race is run.
Having watched his Newmarket and Epsom performances numerous times the overriding feeling is that ten furlongs will be absolutely perfect for him, and given how strongly he travels I’ll be extremely surprised if Conduit beats him at all, let alone leaves him for dead.
The myth that Sea The Stars doesn’t get twelve furlongs is stull just that, a myth – his pedigree says he gets it and racecourse evidence does little to detract from that – and I don’t see any sort of pace troubling him. He’ll run as quickly as he has to to maintain a position and I doubt there are many 8-12 furlong horses with quite as potent a turn of foot.
And it has to be remembered that he’s still raced only five times – there could be plenty we haven’t seen yet (relative to Conduit at least).
I can’t help feeling that Sea The Stars is a bit overhyped at the moment though. Ratings wise he’s not as good a horse as Conduit (at the moment) infact ratings wise he’s not the greatest Guineas or Derby winner. I have a suspicion that this years horses in general are a notch below the last couple of years and that includes the 3yo colts. It may be the 3yo fillies that excel this year – Stacelita, Ghanaati.
Conduit reminds me a lot of Red Rocks, i can’t see him ever producing a performance anyhere near that.
In my opinion it wasn’t speed he showed that night, but the stamina of a Leger winner coming in to play past horses who were tiring off a strong pace. Bit like Red Rocks, 2nd in the Leger outstaying them all in the States.
Must wonder if John Oxx is being too careful with running STS in the Eclipse. The going looked good at the Curragh today and if he(STS) is beaten or the ground turns yielding at Sandown he (OXX) will have egg on his face.Maybe he wont run if there is rain? Many think it is too early for 3ys to take on their elders.
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Without exageration if Sea of Stars was mine, strictly from a financial point of view (Furure Stud Value) the last horse in the world I would want to take on is Conduit.
However from a sporting point of view it should be a fascinating race to watch and great for racing.
Sea the Stars fans will point to the performance of Fame and Glory with gaping eyes today and say "Look at what he did"
It was an excellent performance but it was as I suspected the soft ground turned it into a 3 horse race. A very good 3 horse race I may add.
I just feel Conduit has a lot more acceleration than Sea the Stars and I can’t see how he is going to cope with him. I really think it’s a foregone conclusion that Conduit will be way too good for him. I just can’t imagine Sea the Stars in a fight ovr the last furlong and a half and finding what it takes to win what I regard as his toughest task to date.
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It would be his toughest task to date, Fist, of that there is little doubt, but he showed plenty of tenacity when winning the Beresford on supposedly unsuitable ground, travelled all over (and quickened past) the pacey Delegator at Newmarket, reeled in Golden Sword with the minimum of fuss at Epsom, is obviously still improving and promises to be suited by the ten furlong trip.
No way is Conduit banker material.
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