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Just gone through the field there and really cant see STS being beaten.
Would back him but the price isnt great 1.64 on BF.
Do people think he will drift tomorrow?
Those who fancy STS, who would be their ew bet?
Gillers
Why not do a forecast?
STS with the next 3 in the betting pays around 6/4 at current prices, throw in Twice Over and it’s still 5/4, and you only have the rags running against you.
(Assuming, of course, that STS wins, which I don’t think he will
).It would be nice to be able to say Sea The Stars is poor value at 1.64 on Betfair, but he isn’t.
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That’s a matter of opinion, Throwback, and everyone’s is different.
Whether to take the 4/6 a very good horse, who has yet to prove himself against older, or international, opposition, or the rock solid each way the proven class horse with some doubt about the distance, (Or something else, with even more doubt).
Whether your bag is to win big, or play safely, I can only really see one option that makes the best of both strategies.- Total Posts 17716
Having looked at this race upside down and inside out, I’ve come to the conclusion that if STS hacks up, fantastic he is some racehorse then, the true monster that was used to describe Conduit. At the prices however I could never bet him. Actually at the prices I have come around to Conduit, and whilst he is not yet the monster RH thinks he is, because he would have then given Cima de Triomphe a spanking in the Brigadier Gerard, that’s what monsters do in grp. 3 conditions regardless of the weight concession, he is a very solid betting proposition especially e/w which would negate almost all the risk as I have difficulty seeing him out of the first three.
Ten runners with essentially five no hopers and he should have the beating of Cima de T. on revised weight terms so that leaves four to fill the first three places. Pretty sure Twice Over is not better than Conduit which leaves three for the first three places. SMS will have brought him to peak condition and I’m confident Ryan Moore is chomping at the bit to taste some more grp.1 success, a definite plus the jockey at this track. The distance while a slight worry is mollified by the fact that he has course and distance experience so at 4/1 and better on the machine time to get the e/w betting boots on.
I think you are being rathe naive saying Reet’s desciption of Conduit is premature.
The monster as he calls him rose up through the ranks last season and din’t just win the Breeders and the St Leger he simply destroyed the opposoition.
You are basing what you are saying around his narrow defeat at Sandown last time which amazes me. Sure true monsters spank Group 2 horses but knowig SMS and how he trains his horses that was an awesome run.
Thi is no different than an unfit Kauto Star beating ED 1/2 length in build up to hs main traget and the beating him about 20 lengths when he’s fully fit.
If you look back to when SMS last won the Eclipse with Notnowcato he went into the race of the back of a defeat. That was in the POW at Ascot when unfancied he finished 3rd behind the French trained fav.
Pilsudski hadn’t won for 14 months and was beaten 2 weeks earlier over 1m4f at Ascot before beating Benny the Dip ans Bosra Sham in the Eclipse.
I’m not saying SMS sent them out to get deliderately beaten in their pre-Eclispe races far from it, but he does view the Eclipse as one of the most important races of the season and does like to win it.
Conduit, if anything, has been given a much better preperation for this. When he ran SMS made it clear he would run well but would need the race. He’s ran an absolute cracker despite the warning issued.
Unlike the above 2 Eclipse winners SMS decided not to go to Ascot but to train him specifically for this. I see Peter Reynolds has taken a back seat and said they never planned this it was SMS"s idea, stating he believes the horse is not a typical Leger horse and can win at various trips.
He most likely could have won the Hardwick 1m4f standing on his head but that is not what SMS wanted for the horse. He’s very shrewed and he knows if he wins this Conduit’s stud value will go through the roof.
He send him here with much more positive prepearation than Pilduski or Notnowcato ever had and that leads me to believe Sea the Stars will have his work cut out today against this fellow.
If course Sea the Stars has looked awesome in his races but we have no idea if he is just a good, ora great Derby winnner. He could win in a common canter but he could just as easily be out of the first 3, if they happen to be an ordinary crop of 3yo’s this season.
We’ll know soon.
Conduit – Bags of stamina and a nice turn of foot, likes to be produced off a strong gallop. Strong gallop unlikely today which makes 10f a worry…pass
Rip Van Winkle – Priced up on reputation but he is highly regarded by good judges (OBrien, Murtagh). Possible excuses for 2 runs this season, trys something new today, a day of reckoning for him…. interesting.
Cima De Triomphe – Cant see a probably steadily run affair over 10f suiting him at all. He could of course force it but his wins have come from off the pace. No bet.
Twice Over – Beaten just a length over 10f in top notch Group 1 company the last day, a slower pace should help him today. Cant see why he is 16/1 given that recent form?
Jukebox Jury – Obvious prep run the last day but hard to fancy given the way the Royal Lodge and Racing Post Trophy have worked out.
Steele Tango – Looks a 115-116 horse at best, difficult to see where 8-9lbs of improvement can come from.
Cant see Rip Van Winkle wanting an all out gallop so the 2 "pacemakers" might well be there to ensure it stays steady at the front.
Sea The Stars – Well we know all about him, class horse and everything including the ground should be ideal for him today. As usual the market has it sussed.
Rip Van Winkle will start to run out of excuses after today. Although the formbook says no, its very hard to ignore the opinions of his connections at 11/2. Also cant see why Twice Over is 16/1 given his form from the Prince Of Wales. On a point of value will select those 2, granted the favourite deserves to be the short price that he is.
Once again, Fist, I am amazed from your progression from an absolute novice in matters of the flat, by your own admission, earlier this year(or was it last year, I’m getting old and the days and years merge into one), to what now appears expert.
I wish I was such a quick learner.
Colin
There is little doubt, that today, Sea The Stars will face his sternest test to date.
However, I remember when Mill Reef won the Derby, the merit of his win was also brought into question – and just like Sea The Stars, there were also doubts beforehand whether he’d get the mile and a half trip or not – and of course whether he’d be able to beat the older horses at Sandown. As it happens, he romped home at the generous odds of 5/4.
I am not for one moment suggesting that John Oxx’s colt is anything like Mill Reef but, oh, if only I could get my hands on some 5/4 about Sea The Stars winning today.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
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Once again, Fist, I am amazed from your progression from an absolute novice in matters of the flat, by your own admission, earlier this year(or was it last year, I’m getting old and the days and years merge into one), to what now appears expert.
I wish I was such a quick learner.
Colin
I just close my eyes and imagine there’s 8 flights of hurdles to jump and hope for the best Colin
VERY impressive by Sea The Stars. I fancied RVW to beat him today – I reckoned he got going too late in the Derby. But no questioning STS ability now Speed, versatilty, looks, pedigree and temperment – this horse has it all doesn’t he. Round 1 to the 3 year olds.
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Well, there’s no arguing with a performance like that.
Lang Shining and Set Sail ensured a decent pace throughout and they still looked as if they weren’t going quick enough for Sea The Stars. He travelled well, hit the front too soon (arguably), quickened away from Conduit without any problem and went on again when Rip Van Winkle tried to challenge.
Great stuff (and I’d suggest unequivocal proof that he’s more than a speed miler).
Have to admit that was incredible and not just from Sea The Stars but Rip Van Winkle also.
Its hard to rate this race in a way because if you rate around Cima De Triomphe, Steel Tango, Jukebox Dury and even Conduit (at his peak) you have to rate the front two well into the 130’s which is way, way higher than any previous rating and they are ratings that put the front two up along the alltime greats. Thats not easy to believe of Rip Van Winkle given his previous form BUT we all know of the reputation he’s held coming from Ballydoyle right the way throughout his career. Johnny Murtagh clearly prefered him to Fame and Glory in the Derby to much derision but maybe now we can see why. Whilst Fame And Glory has a good group one rating of around 124 Rip Van Winkle looks clearly to have surpassed that today.
Sea The Stars I didn’t think was anything like as good as he proved he was today fair play to him he looks like a genuine great horse.
134 Sea The Stars
132 Rip Van Winkle.Anyone else get similar ratings or am I being stupid?
I’d say Sea The Stars had a small bit more in hand on Rip Van Winkle than the distance suggested. Sea The Stars was in front plenty soon enough and Mick said afterwards that the horse will only ever do enough when sent to the front. Rip Van Winkle got the run of the race but he just wasn’t good enough to go by Sea The Stars.
Hopefully we’ll be seeing them clash again at Leopardstown in September.
Sea The Stars – what a performance !
I did think at one stage my old friend, Rip Van Winkle was going to get to him, but he quickened again for Mick Kinane when danger loomed.
Sheer class.
Best Derby winner since Nashwan, in my opinion.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Wouldn’t go overboard about Rip either. Thought he had the run of the race and just didn’t want it badly enough when Murtagh delivered his challenge. Seemed to want to drift in behind Sea The Stars if anything, he certainly never looked liked getting past. Rip looks a bit lacking in the tenacity department, a trait in abundance in real champion racehorses.
Once again the price spoke volumes about the Ballydoyle horse. No problems with internet connectivity in County Tipp it seems.
Well done to John Oxx and his horse though, a fully deserved success.
Sandown is not a course that favours those that slightly idle in front….at all. This was going to be a challenge. But class told….
He is really really special. Was a priviledge to be there today and what a wonderful looking animal he is too. There was a real buzz around the pre parade ring
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