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I think the drift possibly has something to do will the good to firm ground description and the forecast of a blistering hot day, will it be too quick for a horse targeting the Arc over 12f?
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Has there ever been a poorer line up for this race? Looks awful.
Anyway, Al Kazeem to win
Has there ever been a poorer line up for this race? Looks awful.
Anyway, Al Kazeem to win
Queen Anne winner, Prince of Wales winner, crack filly. Perhaps lacking a bit of quality from the classic generation, but looks a solid enough race to me.
I see that some firms were offering 3/1 Al Kazeem this morning, albeit to limited stakes. That looks too good to believe and I keep wondering if the horse has lost a leg during the week. He did take a long time to wear down the front runner at Ascot and that must surely be the achilles heel if there is one. I’m wading in anyway and am taking him at 9/1 for the Arc as well, in the belief that Intello is plenty short enough in favourite for that race based on the literal form, although he is obviously open to plenty of improvement.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
My 100% book:
Al Kazeem 11/4,The Fugue 4/1
, Declaration Of War 5/1, Mars 11/2,
Mukhadram 11/2
, Pastorius 16/1, Miblish 800/1
Al kazeem
is one of my favourite horses this year, 3/1 was good value this morning, but (imo) 9/4 is too short on "form". Doesn’t have much over the Haggas horse.
Mukhadram
had the run of the race at Ascot and with rank outsider Miblish seemingly the only other prominent runner – may again get the run of the race again. For sure a chance he’s a bit flattered by the Prince Of Wales, but no doubt improving fast and had everthing in trouble. Trainer is in good form too. 8/1 is too big to ignore. 9/1 now with Corals!
Third at Ascot was
The Fugue
, by all accounts looked awful in the paddock; needed the race. Anchored well out the back in a slowly run race and trainer in much better form now. If they go a reasonable test we know she goes well under these conditions. Should be a lot closer today.
I’d have been keen on
Mars
, but the fact they’re running Declaration Of War suggests Coolmore don’t have confidence in him. Dropped out in a comparitively slowly run Derby; then not the pace in St James’s. This may be his trip, has more improvement in him and still over all "lightly raced"; although this is a third run in quick succession.
Stablemate
Declaration Of War
probably even better than winning distances suggest last time after trouble in running. However, that was not a good quality race and needs to improve again here, good looking big horse who may do so. Test of speed at this trip should suit, (has won at 10f but not in this grade). Should not take too much notice he’s "first string", as Joseph can not do weight of 3 year old.
Pastorious
has each way possibilities, but ran poorly last time in Hong Kong. Reportedly did not handle the heat. Can see him placed if returning to form, but others seem far more unexposed.
Miblish
is totally outclassed, only way he can win is if allowed a long lead.
Value Is EverythingAgain British racing rules proves a joke. Badly hampered the third horse but so what he would not have won so the heck with him. But would he have been second? Who cares? Get home first at all costs and then fight it out in stewards room.
A five year mission to find a race he can win?
http://i73.photobucket.com/albums/i237/scorrie57/4cd7ab79-bb42-4413-b5ab-4c0a422e8171_zps6ccb4c62.jpg
"Money for Mars again? Most illogical Captain"
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Silence or diversion greets the winner. Was it Captain Kirk or Spock? What did they decide?
The rules were in place before the race was run and, like it or not, they are framed to let the horse who would probably have won anyway keep the race. It is not about other horses in the race, just the relative positions of the those involved in any interference. Under the old rules Al Kazeem would have been placed behind Mukhadram into third if it were deemed he had cost that horse second place. That would have meant that the best horse on the day was third and the third best horse on the day was first. If that is somehow more satisfactory in your mind then good luck.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It seemed to me that both horses rolled towards the rail at the same time; had Al Kazeems jockey still been whipping him he might have kept straight but he’d stopped because the horse had gained the upper hand at that point [or so it looked to me, anyway].
It is not about the best horse it is about the best horse and jockey.How often has the best horse been beaten because of jockey error? Misjudging the place of the winning post is an example of the best horse suffering the error of the jockey.
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