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I came on here to give my impression of the Eclipse, but TheTinMan87 has said it all for me.
Great review, TTM.
Value Is EverythingFast ground, shorter trip, 85% fit……..easy as she liked
Fred went 5/4 in the morning – free money
Well done mom, what a day for you
As so often is the case with first time outers; this thing about 85% fit is crazy.
Enable is supposedly as good as ever, and yet is still described as 85% fit. Impossible to be both. Then they say she had really come to herself (“the old Enable”) in the last 10 days; well then she can’t be “85% fit”. If 85% she would not have looked in exceptional condition and would not have been 4/6 fav (how a horse like this is at home vast majority of times comes out in the price). For all Enable is obviously a wonderful racehorse – her record tells us that. But forget the press eulogies, what the trainer and jockey say etc and concentrate on what happened on the track. Enable beat Magical 3/4 length; exactly the same as in the Breeders Cup last year – she ran to form, which strongly suggests she was 100% fit.Value Is EverythingMagical was getting 4lb in the breeders cup and level weights yesterday
So not worth the same winning distance as the breeders cup
Magical was getting 4lb in the breeders cup and level weights yesterday
So not worth the same winning distance as the breeders cup
No, FF. You’ve made a mistake that many punters make. Understandable given the likes of Matt Chapman and others putting punters away.
At the time of the Breeders Cup (Early November) 4 lbs was the weight for age. ie For the time of life Enable and magical were – to be fair to all horses – Enable being the established 4yo racehorse gave 4 lb to the still physically weaker younger Magical. Where as yesterday they were at level weights because 4 year olds are thought to be fully established.
There is a reason why a four year old gives less and less weight for age to the maturing 3yo the later you get through the season. Giving less weight in June than March, August will be lesser still, early November again lesser – down to 4 lbs. Once it gets in to the following year it’s zero lbs.
In other words: The 4yo Enable beating the 3yo Magical 3/4 length giving her 4 lbs in Early November is worth in ratings terms exactly the same as the 5yo Enable beating the 4yo Magical 3/4 length at level weights in Early July the following year.
Value Is EverythingApproaching it mathematically maybe
But it’s too early to say at this stage whether that is the case
Horses dont always train on and enable couldve improved again over the winter too
We wont know if it was 100% enable as you suggested until she runs again
I’d question whether enable was 100% in any of her races last season anyway given the troubled prep
She certainly wasnt as visually impressive at the end of her races, but maybe that’s because she wasnt getting the weight for age allowance
Guess we will find out throughout the course of the year
True, the rating both horses ran to at Churchill Downs and Sandown may not neccesarily be exactly the same. But they’d have to be both the same amount below form or both the same amount better… Which in turn makes it less likely they ran differently to last year… Particularly so when form of the field behind them is understandable given their form too. So until/unless subsequent events show the Sandown form to be any different to Churchill Downs, percentage call is surely to rate the form equal or pretty much equal?
Value Is EverythingI’d expect it’ll be similar to how they rated the Prince Of Wales Stakes also over 10F – Crystal Ocean’s 127 performance minus 3lbs for her filly allowance, possibly another pound off given Crystal Ocean actually beat Magical by half a length further, comes to 123. Racing Post Ratings have Enable running to the same mark on their scale as she did in America (124). They gave Crystal Ocean 128 for Ascot so it all links in nicely. She was given 125 officially as her highest last year but I’m not sure which race that was for it might have been for more than one of them, either way she’s probably run very close to that level first time up which is some doing on Mr Gosden’s part. For anyone interested she was rated 128 at the end of her 3 year old season. I think she’d have been much closer to 100% fit than they let on but that’s just a hunch. What I do know is the Eclipse is still a prestigious race to get on the CV, particularly for a filly given the history of the race which was well documented in the media in the buildup.
Ratings aside watching the race back today Ballydoyle probably had a clear plan to get Magical behind/in close to Hunting Horn and probably try and make use of her fitness edge. Trouble was and the beauty of Enable is she travels so comfortably at pace behind the leaders and she was always going that yard quicker than Magical from the get go, a lack of fitness late on was the only thing that would get Magical past her but she never really looked like she’d be headed to me, but then to me Magical never looked like catching/heading Crystal Ocean either, make of that what you will. I think Sea Of Class was very unlucky in the Arc, the first to genuinely look like beating Enable and today’s news about her colic is desperately sad. All the best to connections, hopefully she pulls through.
It really was a proper feelgood result yesterday, I for one was happy to have a losing bet.
A very big well done to the loads of you who got on Regal Reality early on, especially Kris at a whopping 50-1.
Bloody helll Kris, didn’t realise you had him up at 50s. Lovely!
On Telecaster, when pushed came to shove i thought he looked to carry his head to the left a fair bit. No expert!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Smashing 50’s Kris, played.
Well done everyone else who collected as well.
MoM, I’ll just say well done on this thread, save me repeating myself in the other races lol
I’m not just against Telecaster for some reason but it just seems now entirely probably rather than possible that the Dante form is rubbish and his win there flattered him greatly. He even got the run of the race there as well. TDH won yesterday but they ran him over 10F unfit in the Dante and he was still second.
Thanks all. A day I won’t forget in a hurry.
As for the big race itself having watched it back today, she won it by travelling like she did through the race before even needing to show a turn of foot in my view. At the 2f pole, she was on the only one still on the bridle and yet upsides for the lead. As a filly who has shown she’s capable of a turn of foot even on that ground and was a guaranteed stayer, she had the race won at that point in my opinion.
She’s just a superstar plain and simple.
Her tactical speed at the start and cruising speed during the race make her very hard to beat
Moore was niggling magical at the start to try to get the position in behind hunting horn but enable was simply much too fast at that stage of the race and cruised past magical to sit in behind
For me the race was over at that point as none of them were going to pass her over this trip if she got that prominent position
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