- This topic has 3,121 replies, 103 voices, and was last updated 1 month, 1 week ago by
.
- Posts
Imagine if Henderson had trained desert orchid , he,d have won 1 KG and eff all else
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
Did the novice Desert Orchid ever take on the best of the best established hurdlers / chasers?
Golden Sygnet and Gloria Vectis did and died trying.
Value Is Everything“That and (a reason Henderson did give) the similarity between Constitution Hill’s Supreme and Golden Cygnet’s before the latter’s sad end taking on established hurdlers in the Scottish Champion Hurdle.”
That is just superstition. Hendo needs to get those negative, regressive thoughts out of his head. I’ve always been a fan of Henderson but his decision this time leaves me cold.
From a different perspective, let’s say that if Jonbon would’ve beaten Constitution Hill in the Supreme, would the former have been put in cotton wool leaving CH to definitely take his chance at Punchestown”?
——————————
Partly superstition, yes Ghost; partly not. The part that is superstition certainly exaggerates the part that is not superstition.
Obviously Constitution Hill’s jumping is a great asset, but that’s all relative. Even a particularly good jumping novice can be less consistent at jumping than a good jumping established hurdler (eg over-jumping). After all, Constitution Hill only has three races to his name under rules. So however well his jumping seems to us, we do only have three races to judge Constitution Hill’s jumping on.
Established good jumpers are (with their own good jumping) more likely to put pressure on a good jumping novice’s jumping.
When a good jumping novice takes on poorer jumping novices the pressure is on the poorer jumping novice.
When a good jumping novice takes on good jumping established hurdlers the pressure is on the novice’s jumping. ie His jumping may be less consistent against established good jumpers.
You’re not comparing like with like. Of course the situation would’ve been different had Jonbon won the Supreme. Constitution Hill would not now be the best novice of 2022, let alone the best novice we have ever seen… Henderson knows Constitution Hill is the best hurdler he is ever likely to train… And with an excellent chance of becoming the best hurdler anyone has ever trained… So of course the trainer knows there is more at risk than would’ve been the case had Constitution Hill come in to the Irish race having been beaten by Jonbon in the Supreme. Truth to tell TRFers should know that too.
Value Is EverythingIt’s not about Henderson fearing losing a race. That’s a naive opinion.
It’s the fear of losing Constitution Hill full stop.
Of CH picking up an injury or dying and / or subsequently not being able to fulfil his great potential.Value Is EverythingJust imagine for a moment Constitution Hill wasn’t even there at Cheltenham.
Jonbon beats Kilcruit by a couple of lengths in a slightly faster time than Honeysuckle, then follows up at Aintree and the well-beaten third then goes and wins off his mark of 133 at Plumpton.
I think a fair few would be saying Jonbon could at least give Honeysuckle a race.
Then remember “The Hill” was there and annihilated Jonbon by 22 lengths.
“The Hill” (annoying, isn’t it? Best get used to it, though) is clearly the Second Coming in equine form, far too precious for mid-season races.
Forget the Holy Grail, there’s Davies’s and CAS’s Holy 3/1 ante-post betting vouchers to think of here.
“The Hill” (alright, I’ll stop now – temporarily!) should actually go on holiday with Henderson this summer – a villa in Tuscany would be nice – and then settle down for winter, with the aim to run in that dead easy race at Sandown before his March 2023 date with destiny.
Who could possibly object to any of THAT?
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“I remain baffled as to why the percieved wisdom is that not running in a 2 mile hurdle race is somehow a major positive for running in another 2m hurdle race in 11 months time”.
——————-
A living horse has a much greater chance of winning the Champiion Hurdle in March than a dead one, TTC.
Value Is EverythingGT just pushes that sarcastic/condescending/patronising bar higher every week – it’s hard not to be impressed, tbf.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Just more difficult to find what this forum is supposedly all about, Ian…”intelligent horse racing discussion”.
If TRFers want to give derisory opinions about someone, they should expect forceful criticism back when someone disagrees.
Value Is EverythingI think it’s giving the impression you consider yourself the sole arbiter of what intelligent discussion actually is that possibly raises the odd eyebrow.
Getting back to the actual discussion, Henderson has trained in excess of 70 Cheltenham Festival winners.
I wonder what that tally would be had he ever bowed to public and media pressure?
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“A living horse has a much greater chance of winning the Champiion Hurdle in March than a dead one, TTC.”
Constitution Hill has already run in his most dangerous race this season, Ginger’. There were two heavy falls (one fatal) in the Supreme and two horses pulled up after big race ending blunders. All 10 runners completed the champion hurdle. It’s not long since Asterion Forlonge was skittling opponents in the Supreme. Of course accidents can happen in open races too- like Buveur bringing down Sharjah- but if safety was #1 concern I’d rather run my precious star against good jumpers than snooker tables and feckin idiots like Dysart Dynamo.
What’s the evidence base to suggest that a novice hurdler running against open hurdlers has a statistically greater chance of dying anyway? A 3 mile novice chaser who jumped markedly out to his right dying in the gold cup 22 years ago? A novice hurdler dying in a top class handicap 44 years ago? For balance, Noble Yeats was running in bumpers just over a year ago. And that’s the reason why Emmet Mullins won the Grand National with his first ever runner in it, and Nicky hasn’t in over 40 years of (not really) trying.
“I think it’s giving the impression you consider yourself the sole arbiter of what intelligent discussion actually is that possibly raises the odd eyebrow”.
———————————————–
If that is the case then I apologise, Ian, never my intention.
However, TRFers should not think they can give derisory opinions about non-TRFers without forceful reply from a TRFer who does not share that view.Value Is EverythingAgain Green’, Constitution Hill did not go into the Supreme with the record / ability shown after it. So the risks are different.
Neither is what happened in the Grand National of much relevance, because with Noble Yeats there was no fear of losing a horse with real potential to be the best hurdler / chaser we have ever seen. It is also a well known fact that novices do well against established handicappers because the novice is more likely to improve past its handicap mark. So the risk again is more acceptable.
Scottish Champion Hurdle was not a handicap in Golden Cygnet’s time.
Your point on whether – for novices – open races are statistically more dangerous than those restricted to novices is a fair one. If there are no statistics then it can only be done by opinion.
Real top novices don’t take on the established best hurdlers or chasers that often. So is not such a big sample than it is for handicappers. Fact the two horses mentioned are so long ago is still therefore imo relevant… Especially as Nicky Henderson’s memory goes back a long way which is where the part that is or may be superstition comes in. Could well be it’s the disasters that stick in the mind rather than victories like Danoli’s in the Aintree Hurdle. But the fact remains, last time the best ever novice took on open company Grade 1 performers he died… And that is bound to play on Henderson’s mind.
Value Is EverythingGinger, Desert Orchid took part in Dawn Run’s Champion Hurdle while he was still a novice.
Am I the only one getting thoroughly bored with this debate. Yes constitutional Hill looks an outstanding prospect. He’s far ahead of his peer group. Nobody doubts that. What he will be like nobody knows. The likes of vauban could well improve tremdously in the upcoming 11 months and be challenging the so called top two.
The hype surrounding the horse is ridiculous and given how fragile horses are taking it as a given he will turn up and thrash everything next march is presumtious and insulting to the others horses who are up and coting through the ranks.
Just look at how much flooring porter has improved.
Honeysuckle is a very good ch winner but not a top top horse IMHO so ch should be well up to winning it. Too many on here could be very deflated coming next march.
I wouldn’t wager that all the current market leaders will line up next march never mind back any now.
By all means dream about how any horse could be but a few are losing a sense of perspective IMHO. An opinion like anybody else’s.“But the fact remains, last time the best ever novice took on open company Grade 1 performers he died… And that is bound to play on Henderson’s mind.”
If Hendo is gonna have that kind of mindset or be haunted by tragic events from the past, he ought to retire! OK, CH is now put away until next year but, let’s say, what if the horse died on his comeback run in the Autumn? What would Hendo think then?
Instead, he ought to take a leaf out of the book of Mr Haggas … Baaeed went from winning a Class 4 Maiden to claiming the crown of top miler in 5 months. This is the contrast between the two trainers … Haggas was fearless, Hendo is fearful.
Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
“Am I the only one getting thoroughly bored with this debate.”
In fairness, anyone who is bored has the option to stop reading the thread.
This option applies to all threads.
I see quite a few that don’t interest me personally, but I don’t feel the need to say so.
I personally can’t see how a horse can be said to be “hyped” when its actual racecourse form is there for all to see.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“Alternative is that the JC take a harder line and state that the horse has to run or it will be shot.”
Many a true word, clive. Shooting sound horses in training is not an original idea.
Introducing James Carr-Boyle, 5th Earl of Glasgow (1792-1869) who…
“…proved obstinately devoted to several bloodlines “of proved uselessness”, and his notoriously vile temper hindered plans for the long-term development of the few promising animals he did possess. It was not unknown for him to order that horses that had failed to live up to expectations on the daily gallops be shot on the spot. His record, one despairing trainer noted, was six summary executions in a single morning.”
Carr-Boyle was described by a contemporary as one of the nastiest brutes to sully the history of the turf, a category in which there truly is much fierce competition.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.