- This topic has 72 replies, 23 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 9 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Ginge thanks for efforts to elucidate alas I fear I am beyond help.
Ie.
"So a punter should only back a 3/1 shot if he believes it has a better than 25% chance of winning.Yes, only back a 3/1 shot if he believes it to have a better than 25% chance.
How can it be established that your 3/1 selection has a better than 25% chance of winning. How do you establish the difference in merit from the other three quarters of your selections also calculated at 3/1 with a supposedly equal chance.
If a punter believes a horse has a 25% chance of winning, he should take the best price, provided it is better than 3/1. Although I would not take 100/30 as I like a margin for error.
You can only establish what you believe to be a 3/1 shot by studying form. If you take a look at my example. D is thought to have a quarter the chance of A, a third of B, half of C. The only way those figures work out to 100% are 10%, 20% 30% and 40%. 10 + 20 + 30 + 40 = 100. Of course in practice there will not be many times a race works out to such round figures.
If there is a four horse race where you believe they all have an equal (25% chance). Then the price to beat for all the horses is 3/1 (or with my margin for error 100/30).
Value Is EverythingWhy is it called a tissue??
I thought the term ’tissue’ originated from the odds compliers carbon-copying their forecasts onto a tissue like paper (thin) before giving them to each of the on-course bookies – back in the day (as the kids say)
I don’t know why I think that mind.
Ginger
I can’t speak for Rob, but my percentages are very similar to his and I can find ‘value’ bets in every race I study. Well, 9 times out of 10 I can.
I look at the information and I form my tissue. I don’t look for ‘help’ from anyone else’s analysis, or ‘check’ my prices against early Betfair markets, RP forecasts, Sporting Life tissues or Paddy Power first shows. I’m not trying to predict the market, that’s not my objective.
Also, I keep records of my tissues. I put my prices in broad groups. For example, I look at all the horses I’ve ascribed a percentage of 0-3% to and see if indeed the number of winners from that group is between 0 and 3. I do the same with the rest. That way you can keep an account of whether your own tissue is accurate or not.
I’m sure Rob will come on and defend himself, but I think there’s more than a hint of disbelief, ridicule or even contempt in your post and that’s most unlike you.
Ginger
I’m sure Rob will come on and defend himself, but I think there’s more than a hint of disbelief, ridicule or even contempt in your post and that’s most unlike you.
No need for Rob to defend himself mate. Sorry, I see how you could take it that way, should have expanded on my 5 word question. Believe me there is no contempt in what I tried to say, came out wrong.
If I did my books to 80%, I’d have very few bets. That’s NOT to say I am right in my assessments and you are wrong. It’s just a fact and rare that any of my 100% book prices are more than 6% different to bookmakers best prices. My record recently has been pretty poor, so it may well mean I am doing something wrong. Genuinely interested in how others do things and learn from people like yourself and Rob.
Once again, my apologies to both of you.
Mark
Value Is EverythingGinger
I can’t speak for Rob, but my percentages are very similar to his and I can find ‘value’ bets in every race I study. Well, 9 times out of 10 I can.
I look at the information and I form my tissue. I don’t look for ‘help’ from anyone else’s analysis, or ‘check’ my prices against early Betfair markets, RP forecasts, Sporting Life tissues or Paddy Power first shows. I’m not trying to predict the market, that’s not my objective.
Also, I keep records of my tissues. I put my prices in broad groups. For example, I look at all the horses I’ve ascribed a percentage of 0-3% to and see if indeed the number of winners from that group is between 0 and 3. I do the same with the rest. That way you can keep an account of whether your own tissue is accurate or not.
Yes, I aagree it is what we think the market should be and not what it will be that matters. Do like to do my tissues before looking at betting forecasts, as it can influence me. If there is a very big difference with one horse, my tissue against the bookies; will go back and see if I’ve missed anything. Don’t often change it, and if I do it’s only by one or two percent.
Good idea to keep a record of groups ROF, might try that.
What do you and Rob use in your form study? What sites and form books? What do you take in to account?
Value Is EverythingMy tuppence worth on all of this is that really a tissue is only an opinion. Fair enough it may be the opinion of an expert (if you believe that to be the case) but its still based on heresay, form factors etc etc.
As we all know there is nothing that will ever accurately be able to evaluate every single aspect and come out with the winner. Instead machines or individuals use logic to create their forecast.
A value bet can really only be judged when the creator of that tissue price/forecast (or someone who really believes in its worth) is comparing it to the actual price available.
So yes if your getting 2/1 on what you believe is an Evens money shot then over the course of time you shall come out on top. But the most important thing here is are you sure the horse really does have an Even money chance??
I can barely believe what I have read here this morning, I almost went into the kitchen and started to make my porridge again.
- Total Posts 17716
There’ll be many more who aren’t at all surprised, ETW.
It’s like going to church and hearing a sermon on morality, then finding the Vicar with his pants down half-an-hour later – every bloody Sunday.
- Total Posts 17716
What I don’t get about tissues and value is why make it so complicated?
I’ve read a lot of posts where people say they think horse "A" will win but he’s no value so they are backing horse "B".
As no more than 1 horse, except in the case of dead heats, can win a race the all I can say is they are stone mad. There can be no value if you think a horse can’t win only pure luck if it does.
My own system is much simpler:- example. I looked at the overnight declarations the other day and strongly fancied a horse of Nicky Henderson’s. At a glance I thought he would start around 5/4-1/1 as it turned out he was available at 15/8 and returned at 7/4.
So for me he was value but the point is I would have still backed him at 4/5 because I thought he would win. What I wouldn’t do is back something else because I thought my selection was too short.
I leave the tissues to the bookie who needs to attract my money to continue in business. I have no complaints about what is available out there and I couldn’t care less what price a horse is if I think he’s a good thing I’ll back him.
Value punters think they can beat the book with the theory if I back 1 pound @ 60 x 10/1 shots in a season 12 are sure to win I’m in profit to the tune of 24 quid.
That’s the mentality of them simplified but if they woke up and smelled the roses they would wait for a eg Hurricane Fly going day and have their 60 quid on him at 1/2 and make 30 quid and have plenty spare time on their hands to study for the next Hurricane Fly.
My advice to anyone going this way is don’t! Spend some cash on the fastest internet connection you can afford and get on to racing replays and start searching for your own Hurricane Fly.
Video replays are the greatest tool a punter’s ever had and will kick a calculators ass any day of the week.
Why is it called a tissue??
It may be that it’s because it’s a ‘cold start’ go at estimating the market. The start of a cold, so either a corrpution of ‘atishoo’ or requiring a tissue. Only my guess at the derivation I hasten to add.
My own tissue is calculated to 80% thus giving me an accurate indication of anything well on the right side from my point of view.
How many bets do you have with an 80% book Rob?
One or two a month?
Betting in Class 3 and better races I average 2 or 3 bets per race. Some races at the festivals I’ll have 7 or 8 running for me. I ask for odds on the exchanges which gives me a chance to pick up the upward tick of the market as well as automatically backing any already at value odds.
I use two sets of ratings, one readily available and a second slightly left field method of my own calculation. For local races I tweak from my own knowledge, but on the face of it bare figures are slightly better than tweaked. I keep a careful record of all race analysed.
Rob
- Total Posts 17716
My tuppence worth on all of this is that really a tissue is only an opinion. Fair enough it may be the opinion of an expert (if you believe that to be the case) but its still based on heresay, form factors etc etc.
As we all know there is nothing that will ever accurately be able to evaluate every single aspect and come out with the winner. Instead machines or individuals use logic to create their forecast.
A value bet can really only be judged when the creator of that tissue price/forecast (or someone who really believes in its worth) is comparing it to the actual price available.
So yes if your getting 2/1 on what you believe is an Evens money shot then over the course of time you shall come out on top. But the most important thing here is are you sure the horse really does have an Even money chance??
Ask Ruby Walsh or AP………they’d give up riding and take up gambling if you offered them 1/1 money about some of the horses they’ve ridden.
Apologies if this thread has brought up a tired old debate. It wasn’t my intention.
What I don’t get about tissues and value is why make it so complicated?
My method, although giving a regular source of selections, isn’t very complicated. It normally takes me 15 minutes tops to do the calculations for a race plus time spent seeking out the prices. some would be a little of sceptical of how quickly I can form my ’tissue’ but the method works fine for me.
- Total Posts 17716
The Corm can go for a drive in your Merc instead of waiting for me then
Why is it called a tissue??
Because if you ain’t got a clue how to do it, you will (as the rhyme says) eventually "all fall down".
The day i need to do a bloody "Tissue" is the day i give up betting horses! I could think of a dozen more important factors in governing what i am going to bet in a race than creating my own price list and the day i believe a horse has only a 10% chance of winning a race because its 10/1 i will donate my Crown to the "Discalcular" Society! I backed Somersby at 25/1 e/w to win the Arkle months ago,not because i think he has a 4% chance of winning,because i think he has 100% chance of running a place at least and the reasons for that are he has all the attributes of your typical Arkle horse,the bonus is he was 25/1!He"s not that now because he is beginning to show all those who lack the Foresight/skill to know he was going to that anyway given a set of circumstances!Tissues are for wiping your Ar*e on and thats all they are fit for!IMHO of course!
TAPK
You basically have the same aim, you just have a different way of approaching it. If you are as happy with your method as I am with mine then all power to you!
I’ll stick to the Kleenex!
Rob
What I don’t get about tissues and value is why make it so complicated?
I’ve read a lot of posts where people say they think horse "A" will win but he’s no value so they are backing horse "B".
As no more than 1 horse, except in the case of dead heats, can win a race the all I can say is they are stone mad. There can be no value if you think a horse can’t win only pure luck if it does.
My own system is much simpler:- example. I looked at the overnight declarations the other day and strongly fancied a horse of Nicky Henderson’s. At a glance I thought he would start around 5/4-1/1 as it turned out he was available at 15/8 and returned at 7/4.
So for me he was value but the point is I would have still backed him at 4/5 because I thought he would win. What I wouldn’t do is back something else because I thought my selection was too short.
I leave the tissues to the bookie who needs to attract my money to continue in business. I have no complaints about what is available out there and I couldn’t care less what price a horse is if I think he’s a good thing I’ll back him.
Value punters think they can beat the book with the theory if I back 1 pound @ 60 x 10/1 shots in a season 12 are sure to win I’m in profit to the tune of 24 quid.
That’s the mentality of them simplified but if they woke up and smelled the roses they would wait for a eg Hurricane Fly going day and have their 60 quid on him at 1/2 and make 30 quid and have plenty spare time on their hands to study for the next Hurricane Fly.
My advice to anyone going this way is don’t! Spend some cash on the fastest internet connection you can afford and get on to racing replays and start searching for your own Hurricane Fly.
Video replays are the greatest tool a punter’s ever had and will kick a calculators ass any day of the week.
I completely agree with most of your sentiments Fist. Those that bet simply because of a price on their tissue are relying on mathematics to earn them a profit rather than on their skill / knowledge of a horse.
The only way I differ to you is I wouldn’t back a horse I think should be even money at 4/5 or evens even if I think it can’t get beat I would only bet if I consider the price to be better than I think it should be whereas you’d bet regardless.
Backing a horse to win simply because its a bigger price than a its percentage chance but I do not expect to win is not for me at all.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.