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Anyone with an interest in this, rather than getting bored to tears by gingertipster (just kidding mate!), might want to check out the RUK Kempton replay loop currently showing. Eddie Fremantle and Richard Hoiles going through it in detail and rather just theorising actually trying to put it in to a practical example.
I’m sure for plenty of you it will be like teaching granny to suck eggs, but someone might find it of interest.
(boring, moi, surely not. 
).
And I am away from my TV. Can’t see it. Is it anything I’d learn from David?About time the media did something about it.
(Don’t worry I’m not going to go on about it).
Value Is EverythingI don’t know tbh honest. I found it interesting even if I can’t say I learn’t something I didn’t already know.
One thing I would have liked them to have hammered home that they didn’t, is that compiling tissues isn’t the holy grail to making money, if you haven’t got a clue what price each particular horse should be.
Why is it called a tissue??
Because if you ain’t got a clue how to do it, you will (as the rhyme says) eventually "all fall down".
Value Is EverythingI don’t know tbh honest. I found it interesting even if I can’t say I learn’t something I didn’t already know.
One thing I would have liked them to have hammered home that they didn’t, is that compiling tissues isn’t the holy grail to making money, if you haven’t got a clue what price each particular horse should be.
Very true David, although if you do know how to do do it, then it is the Holy Grail. Judging by my results, I used to know the Holy Grail.
Value Is EverythingI have never been able to comprehend how anyone can back or lay a horse just because the price is different from what they think it should be.
Any summary please? I don’t subscribe to RUK but would have liked to see this. It’s something I need to learn.
O.K. just for Expect To Win and Kopwas. The rest of you can look away now.
Here is something I prepared earlier which explains the principles.Logic in simple terms to explain the way of value betting:
Every punter knows for each £ he / she stakes on a 3/1 winner, he gets £4 returned (winning £3 plus £1 stake back).
For every 100 bets of level stakes at 3/1 a punter must win 25 to break even (25 X 4 = 100). Staking 100 points and getting 100 back. If he wins more than 25 he will make a profit, less than 25 will result in a loss. Therefore, 25% = true odds of 3/1. So a punter should only back a 3/1 shot if he believes it has a better than 25% chance of winning.Gamblers want to know “who’s going to win”? But they should not necessarily back the horse with “the best chance of winning”. The important question is “in your opinion, who is VALUE to win”?
Bookmakers stay in business by betting to an over-round figure. In a four horse race with a competitive market he may offer:
A 11/8 (you need a 42.1% strike rate at 11/8 to break even), B 15/8 (34.8%), C 100/30 (23.1%), D 12/1 (7.7%).
42.1 + 34.8 + 23.1 + 7.7 = 107.7.2%
Working to 107.7% for an over-round of 7.7%.Yet betting is all about opinions, bookmakers prices might not be right. If after studying form of the race above a punter believes:
A has a 40% 6/4 chance of winning.
B 30% almost 9/4
C 20% 4/1
D 10% 9/1
All four adding up to 100%.Comparing the punters prices to bookmakers; the only horse at a better price (value) with bookmakers is D at 12/1. D is the only possible bet, despite in the punters own opinion having the worst chance of winning. Quarter of A’s chance, a third of B’s and half of C. With a 10% strike rate at 12/1 showing a profit. Where as a 40% strike rate at 11/8, 30% at 15/8 and 20% at 100/30 all resulting in a loss.
In some races like novices or maidens it is difficult to work out a 100% book. But being able to see a price as a percentage and vice versa makes it easier to make an informed opinion if something is value or not.
To calculate the percentage each price is worth, add a point and divide by 100.
So 3/1 = 3 + 1 = 4, 100 ‘/, 4 = 25%.
100/30 = 3.33/1 + 1 = 4.33, 100 ‘/, 4.33 = 23.1%
And so on.
For odds in decimals (what you see on betfair or tote) there is no need to add the 1; just divide 100 by the figure. 4.0 is the same as 3/1. So 100 ‘/, 4 = 0.25 = 25%Here are the prices and their percentages.
Evens 50, 21/20 48.8, 11/10 47.6, 6/5 45.5, 5/4 44.4, 11/8 42.1, 6/4 40, 13/8 38.1, 7/4 36.4, 15/8 34.8, 2/1 33.3, 85/40 32, 9/4 30.8, 5/2 28.6, 11/4 26.7, 3/1 25, 100/30 23.1, 7/2 22.2, 4/1 20, 9/2 18.2, 5/1 16.7, 11/2 15.4, 6/1 14.3, 13/2 13.3, 7/1 12.5, 15/2 11.7, 8/1 11.1, 17/2 10.5, 9/1 10, 10/1 9.1, 11/1 8.3, 12/1 7.7, 13/1 7.1, 14/1 6.7, 15/1 6.2, 16/1 5.9, 18/1 5.3, 20/1 4.8, 22/1 4.3, 25/1 3.8, 28/1 3.4, 33/1 3, 40/1 2.4, 50/1 2, 66/1 1.5, 80/1 1.2, 100/1 1, 132/1 0.75, 150/1 0.66, 200/1 0.5, 250/1 0.4, 300/1 0.33, 400/1 0.25, 500/1 0.2, 800/1 0.125, 1000/1 0.1, 2000/1 0.05For odds-on percentages, subtract the odds-against equivalent from 100.
So for 4/6, 6/4 = 40% , 100 – 40 = 60, therefore 4/6 = 60%For an Evens shot to be a good bet you must obviously believe it to have a better than 50% chance of winning, 21/20 48.8%, 11/10 47.6% and so on. Though a margin for error should be factored in. Few gamblers are 100% accurate, so it may be best not to back what you consider a true 4/1 shot at 9/2 but to do so at 5/1 or more. Alternatively, work out a race to smaller than 100%, (say 95%) which gives a built in margin for error
You did ask!
Value Is EverythingWhy is it called a tissue??
It may be that it’s because it’s a ‘cold start’ go at estimating the market. The start of a cold, so either a corrpution of ‘atishoo’ or requiring a tissue. Only my guess at the derivation I hasten to add.
My own tissue is calculated to 80% thus giving me an accurate indication of anything well on the right side from my point of view.
(Don’t worry I’m not going to go on about it).
You lying B*****d! half a page later!
Thanks for the nudge, David.
A typically no-nonsense half hour from RH and EF, and I’m sure plenty of viewers will have found it useful.
I thought you would have seen it gumshield. I know you don’t like to miss a Kempton AW meeting!
As you know, David, my penthouse flat overlooks the back straight, but as usual I’d drawn the curtains.
Why is it called a tissue??
It may be that it’s because it’s a ‘cold start’ go at estimating the market. The start of a cold, so either a corrpution of ‘atishoo’ or requiring a tissue. Only my guess at the derivation I hasten to add.
My own tissue is calculated to 80% thus giving me an accurate indication of anything well on the right side from my point of view.
How many bets do you have with an 80% book Rob?
One or two a month?
Value Is EverythingGinge thanks for efforts to elucidate alas I fear I am beyond help.
Ie.
"So a punter should only back a 3/1 shot if he believes it has a better than 25% chance of winning."How can it be established that your 3/1 selection has a better than 25% chance of winning. How do you establish the difference in merit from the other three quarters of your selections also calculated at 3/1 with a supposedly equal chance.
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