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Just to round out my Day 1 Cheltenham study…
The longlist: Art Of Payroll, Ballyhill, Barney Dwan, Brelade, De Plotting Shed, Divine Spear, Drumcliff, Goose Man, Mister Whitaker, Movewiththetimes, Patricks Park, Peregrine Run, Rather Be, Rocklander
Remove Mister Whitaker, De Plotting Shed & Ballyhill as all look to be rated too high or too low to get in.
Reduced list: Art Of Payroll, Barney Dwan, Brelade, Divine Spear, Drumcliff, Goose Man, Movewiththetimes, Patricks Park, Peregrine Run, Rather Be, Rocklander
Reluctantly removing Brelade (entered in hurdles, has had a worrying absence), Drumcliff (attitude, field size) and Rather Be (no value at the price)
Further reduced to: Art Of Payroll, Barney Dwan, Divine Spear, Goose Man, Movewiththetimes, Patricks Park, Peregrine Run, Rocklander
ART OF PAYROLL
One of many ex-Sandra Hughes horses to improve with a capable trainer, Art Of Payroll was backed off the boards and value for much further than the result when beating Hammsersly Lake (just about the best older summer jumper who was operating over here) at Southwell. He flopped at 3m next time (wasn’t a guaranteed stayer) and has been saved for a spring campaign since. He’d need to improve even further in a deeper race here.
BARNEY DWAN
There is just no escaping how well handicapped Barney Dwan is on 143. I was hoping he’d run in the Ultima as he certainly stays 3m and might even be most effective at that trip. He represents the Presenting Percy Pertemps Final form that has been such an endless source of winners this season. His jumping can be a bit messy and you do wonder whether he’ll be found out by the test of his jumping at speed, but I’m terrified of overcomplicating things and talking myself out of a winner. He’s so so well-in.
MOVEWITHTHETIMES
Hardly a subtle plan from connections this season with Movewiththetimes quite obviously targeted at this. I actually bet him for the Supreme last season (missed out with a last minute injury) on the back of his Betfair Hurdle run, where he should have beaten Ballyandy but for Barry Geraghty using the whip in the wrong hand. He has gained plenty of Cheltenham experience this season, proving his stamina for 2m 4f in the process despite not looking suited by small-field affairs. He is extremely well-handicapped on 142 and must be going close with a clear round. Movewiththetimes is more of a natural 2m 4f horse than Barney Dwan. Assuming both are similarly well-treated, you’d lean towards this one.
DIVINE SPEAR
My long-range idea of the Topham Chase winner. He was so impressive in blitzing Exitas at Ascot earlier in the season, with his jumping proving a real weapon. You can probably forgive his shock Musselburgh defeat given that he may have needed the run after a short break and was not ridden to best effect. He doesn’t quite have as much in hand as the two above but is certainly going to win more handicaps.
GOOSE MAN
Tom Taafe won the fist renewal of this race with Fingeronthepulse and has had this in mind with Goose Man for a long time. He is on a good Irish rating to qualify and should do better on quicker ground (by Gold Well). Still, he does need to take his form much much higher to match the Movewiththetimes and Barney Dwan. I feel like I’ll bet him for small stakes on the day if the price is right.
PATRICKS PARK
This horse was backed off the boards before winning a valuable 2m 1f handicap chase on his second start for Willie Mullins. It’ll be touch and go as to whether he will make it into the race but he demands respect if squeezing in.
ROCKLANDER
Where are they going to run him? He is actually on a higher chase mark than his hurdles rating, but his physique suggests that will be OK. He doesn’t quite have such a sexy profile as the two above but it has always been my view that a really well-run good ground 2m 4f chase would be his optimal conditions.
PEREGRINE RUN
I fell for this horse in the Coral Cup last year, where he enjoyed a dream run around the inside but just wasn’t able to quicken once the leaders got away. He enjoyed a few nice spins over fences in the summer and is still on a fair enough mark. I’m a little wary though – his win over Wholestone may be fruity form as he was best placed (held up off a strong pace, challenged on the best of the ground) that day. I also generally don’t like horses coming back from a break who were previously on the go for a long time (Peregrine Run had previously been active since late 2015 without a long break). I’d be happy to see him win but I think I’ll let it happen without any of my money here. Roger Loughran is obviously a handicap burden in himself, too.
Conclusion
I’m betting Movewiththetimes now @ 10/1, expecting him to SP shorter and viewing him as the best-handicapped 2m 4f horse in the race. I might have tiny plays on Art Of Payroll and/or Goose Man at big prices on the day once the extra place offers come into play.
Interesting, i took the view that he might be better over 2miles in a big handicap….Thought his change of gear 2 out to take the lead was very good. Before being outstayed again….but you might be right actually about just needing a big field over the 2m4 trip!
Defo been kept for the festival as you say. Will need to sharpen his jumping too.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I like 2 here with nrnb and best odds, hard for Jameson to sneak in but the nrnb helps. Both 33-1 each way
Jameson
Le RocherNot got an opinion on this yet but just wanted to say great write up Lost soldier.
I notice you’ve done a few Cheltenham write up on some different threads lately and they are always a decent read.
Any Second Now and De Plotting Shed both surprisingly get into this race after a show of lenience from Phil Smith.
Love this race, and usually a lot better than it gets credit for. Looking forward to it, and have plenty in the long term notebook for it, but it’s turning into a really difficult race to have an early go, as the five main shortlist horses all got an entry, and all with solid looking chances. NRNB doesn’t really appeal here with any of them, and I can see them all make it.
Peregrine Run
Divine Spear
Any Second Now
Jett
De Plotting ShedIn the end, there will be only one horse I’m betting Ante-Post in this, and it’s another long term notebook horse, and it’s Western Miller. I didn’t necessarily have this race in mind for him, and he certainly has other possible engagements, but I’m going to take a chance early doors with Western Miller. Very happy with him at Sandown, where he really should have won, and he ran with credit up against Yanworth and Willoughby Court at Newbury. He needs eight to come out, and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t sneak in, should this be the plan. This race doesn’t always go to the bigger yards, and I think he has an outside chance of breaking Longsdons duck at The Festival. Weather forecast isn’t the best, he might just prefer a sounder surface, but at these odds, I wouldn’t be too fussed. If he doesn’t go here, NRNB will take care of that, and would still be interested in him later in the week…………and later in the season.
Western Miller 40’s Each Way NRNB BOG
Had a 2pt e/w bet on Kalondra yesterday for this at 16s.
Cheltenham form earlier in the season with Coo Star Sivola and Movewiththetimes in behind, travelling well out the back and coming through with a pile to spare has him easily above 145 for me and getting the 2lb drop after a poor run in the Scilly Isles looks very generous.
Better ground should suit, travelled well in the Coral Cup before just not quite picking up like like a proper hurdler needs to and Neil Mulholland was praising his chances at the press do also.
Other one I like if he sneaks in is Mister Whitaker, but I’ll wait and see if he gets in come declarations before backing him.
I have so far just backed the one in this
JETT 25/1
Jessie has ran this against some top class animals and this race could be a drop in class for this horse and could be a huge price for one of hers!!
Don’t normally post on these threads but I am very keen on TESTIFY in this @ 20-1. Got 5 entries at the festival but Donald seemed to indicate on Friday that this was his most likely target.Jumped beauifully in his last two races and certainly wouldn’t be inconvienienced by soft or even heavy ground.
Interesting shout Nenni, and looks to have a proper chance here.
I won’t jinx him for you though, as I’m still trying to sort out that shortlist of mine, and I’ve got more than enough to deal with.
I’m only going down to no.30 in the list and have removed a few unlikely runners but I think there are a few groups of horses here:
Exposed and/or played their hand early in the season: Kalondra, Testify, Le Rocher, Conrad Hastings, Born Survivor, Western Miller, Midnight Shot, Jameson, De Dollar Man
Well-treated (5lbs+ in hand): Brelade, Rather Be, Art Of Payroll, Rocklander, Divine Spear, Drumcliff, Report To Base, Livelovelaugh
Chucked-in (10lbs+ in hand): Any Second Now, Barney Dwan, De Plotting Shed, Movewiththetimes
Who knows?: Tycoon Prince, Ozzie The Oscar, The Unit, Callino D’Airy, Vosne Romanee
Talk about a competitive race! I thought you could have the best part of a stone in hand and still be out of the first five here.
Market moves now strongly suggest Any Second Now will run rather than Movewiththetimes. I like to bet in every Cheltenham Festival race but I’m really struggling to find anything in this one at this point. Those prices look pretty damn solid.
What is the point of this race? We have one of the worst JLT fields likely to assemble for a long time and only a handful of runners in the arkle. Surely if this race didn’t exist the grade 1 novice chases would be more competitive? Cheltenham is supposed to be the pinnacle but this race encourages dishonest and over careful campaigning of horses. I’d much rather watch the likes of Any Second now, the plotting shed, testify, tycoon prince. Barney dwan, rather be and other similar horse contributing to the JLT, arkle or RSA.
This race should be a 0-135 race at uttoxeter or somewhere
Just the one bet for me here and that’s on Testify at 25/1. Glad to see he’s pretty much nailed on to run and the more rain the better for him. It would be nice to see McCain grab another Festival win, he’s done well this season with what he has but still lacks that quality at the top end. Hopefully Testify will be one for him.
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