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Formerly The Racing Post Chase….
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/28/kempton/2021-02-27/775756
The race has obviously declined a bit the last few years, but this years entries give hope for a decent field. Definitely the strongest entry for years.
I’ve already bet one here, and that’s Jerrysback. He’s market leader, but I think he deserves to be. I really liked him two years back, but he’s been seen once since then, and that was his comeback last time, and it was a cracker behind Dashel Drasher. He’ll surely build on that at some point this year, and I fancy him to go really well. Don’t necessarily buy into the “bounce” factor, but I do once I’ve bet one like him.
One who looks really big is the Tizzard trained Sizing at Midnight. He’d have won The Badger Ales but for tipping up close home, and on that evidence, he still looks well treated. I’ve followed him since his early days, but he was mainly average. This year though, he’s looked a different animal, and this is perfect for him. Signs of a yard revival recently, and at 20’s, I’ll almost certainly back him Antepost.
Erick Le Rouge is harder to make a case for. I bet him here last time, and I was very confident, but he was easily swept aside, a big disappointment. I just think though, that he’s worth another chance, and at a track he likes, I’d give him some sort of chance.
Former “Whitbread” winner, Talkischeap, is probably high enough in the weights, but he looked great in a jumpers bumper last week, and I think he’s primed for a big run somewhere. I think he’s a decent outsider for Aintree, but before then, I can see him running well here, or possibly The Ultima at Cheltenham. One to note.
That’s the four who jump out right now, but it really is a strong entry, and there’s plenty of good animals in there.
I’ve took 10’s for Jerrysback, but even though a fortnight away, I’m seriously considering adding Sizing at Midnight as an Antepost as well.
Jerrysback 10’s
Two outsiders for me at this. Ibis Du Rheu at 25-1, and Gold Present at 33-1, but I’ll have another look before I actually have a bet.
Jerrysback heading to Ascot instead, but still very interested in the other trio.
I wouldn’t be put off one of them at the five day stage, and happy to have another Antepost then.
It’ll almost certainly be Talkischeap, but I’ll hold off until then, which is annoying as he looks as if he’s getting a few quid his way just now at the 16’s.
I quite fancy Slate House for this but think it would need to cut up drastically for me to bet him – not sure he likes big fields
He’d be my pick Frankie if neither of my pair makes it, but I suppose if both of these fail to trap, it would maybe make more sense to sit it out.
After the early bet on Jerrysback, it’s as planned, and going with Talkischeap and Erick Le Rouge.
I’m fairly confident about this pair, though in hindsight I thought Jerrysback would be perfect for it, and he was brutal on Saturday.
Talkischeap just looked in good heart the other week, and I’d imagine that’s put him spot on. The Williams yard are reasonable at laying one out, and this looks like it could be a plan. I bet him last time, and he wasn’t very good, but that runs got 3lbs shaved off him. I’m confident he can reverse that.
Erick Le Rouge 25’s
Talkischeap 14’sI’ve long been a fan of Slate House and always thought there was a big
one in him. Nearly broke my heart when coming down in the Betvictor Gold
Cup over a year back when looking like he had the race at his mercy. He did
get some consolation a month later over c/d in the Kauto Star Nov Ch but
followed it up with a couple of shockers at Cheltenham last year.
He had his wind done in November, and looked like his old self at Wincanton
last month. He travelled really well but looked like he was tiring when he
made a complete mess at the last and lost any chance. Nonetheless it was
an encouraging run and he should be the better for it. I think the 12s is
decent value and I could see him going off at half those odds on Saturday.Slate House 12/1 Skybet
Both of mine made it so far, but I’m really looking to lay off Talkischeap, as I’ve cooled on him a bit for this, and he’ll be a saver only now. Can see him maybe being better for Cheltenham. I won’t complain if he wins though, and I’ll stick with the small Antepost on him.
Main reason for this is that I’m very keen on Black Corton now, and I can see him getting very competitive with this lot, off of top weight. If back to his best, he’s good enough to carry it. Was coming round to this way of thinking last night, and I’d assumed he’d shorten fairly quickly if declared, but he’s holding ok. I’ll take the 12’s just now, but I’d be happy to have more on if he went bigger.
I haven’t cooled on Erick Le Rouge, and I still think he’s a very interesting outsider if you ignore his last run. I’m definitely having a bigger bet on him too, now that he’s declared. I’m hoping he doesn’t go bigger than 25’s, but I’ll probably take the bigger odds of I see them.
Black Corton 12’s
Erick Le Rouge 25’s
Talkischeap (saver 14’s)Really pleased to see such a good turnout for this. Some quality in there too. I’m another one for Slate House and I can’t resist another go on Aso. I’m still convinced he can see this out and he’s capable off this mark.
Don’t forget folks that this will be the quickest ground they will have potentially raced on all season. Hence my pick is what it is. And something to be aware of when picking yours.
Very wary of this contest with question marks against many and a good few stepping up from 2m 4f or thereabouts.
Top four on my ratings are:
Mellow Ben 180
Al Dancer 167
Mister Malarky 165
Aso 165Mellow Ben gains his rating by a combination of his last run here behind Royale Pagaille, which establishes the level (perhaps dubiously) and a decent run behind Cap Du Nord. Tore off like a scalded cat last time and would have to be less headstrong.
Al Dancer and Aso have it to prove over the trip.
Tentative selection is MISTER MALARKY whose form does tend to show a ‘one on, one off’ pattern, but goes well round here, stays and comes off a wind operation which one would hope might help him. There will be worse 25/1 chances this season.
Slate House for me at 14-1. He’s a horse that I’ve always liked, and although he hasn’t fulfilled his early promise, I think that he can run a big race. There’s still that niggling doubt over the stable though.
I was going to stick with 1 selection here, but I cannot resist the 13-2 for Cap Du Nord, as I know that at the very least the track will suit him.
Clondaw Castle for me. Backed him for both the Peterborough Chase and Silviniano Conti Chase and on both occasions he was hampered by a faller, but still ran a decent race. Hopefully a bit more luck tomorrow and he can run a big race. Also added Also added Delire D’Estruval at a big price. He won here almost a year ago over 2m5f, always doing enough. Might be tough ask, but I think his price is too big.
Clondaw Castle 10/1
Delire D’Estruval 50/1Cracking competitive hcap , could easily see 5 or 6 of these winning it , like a few I really like slate house , yard still isn’t flying yet but they are getting winners , I’ll also play al dancer , another yard that hasn’t had a great year and to be honest he,s getting a bit frustrating , however the step up may suit and I believe he could still be a 160 horse
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
I agree with Mike about the ground and so I’m joining HDLG on Al Dancer. He has run 6 times on ground with good in the description, winning 5. The loss was a length second last season to Mister Fisher over 2 miles, that one now rated 162. I’m going to ignore his Capsian Caviar run- he was too far back, the ground was too soft, he got badly hampered and by the time he worked his way back into it he was tired and Chatham Street Lad was long gone. I hope he’s ridden reasonbly close to the pace today using his jumping rather than creeping along at the back “ridden to get the trip” (which IMO is a load of rubbish unless the front runners go mental and there is a pace collapse- either they get it or they don’t). His pedigree isn’t exactly stamina laden although he does have a half sib who ran creditably in the Grand Steep. He has a good record fresh too.
My other selection is an EW on Young Wolf who should also appreciate the ground. Good luck all.
The Butcher Said e/w for me. Has his ground and the track will suit. He’s been finishing a bit meekly of late but a wind op since his last run has hopefully sorted that and he has a nice racing weight. Hood removed is an interesting move but not necessarily a negative as i don’t think he needs it anymore. Should be a good race, this.
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