- This topic has 499 replies, 76 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 7 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
As part of my desperate search for value can anyone fill me in on the value of Othermix’s French form
Noel Meade seems quite confident that Jered will run a good race on good to soft ground.
All is not lost.
Just out of interest why would you fancy Jered ,when AP has the pick of 2 and goes for the Fav ?
Didnt AP have the choice last year and get it wrong?
As part of my desperate search for value can anyone fill me in on the value of Othermix’s French form
It doesnt look hugely impressive and Im sure tom george said that he wanted to target the other meeting with this one, but that the champ hurdle looked like a good race to introduce Othermix. I do these outsiders aswell tuffers and couldnt help but be drawn to Cybergenic, however the fact that he has had no money is a statement in itself and I cant help but think that the horse may be a bit too much of a bum to have any chance in this.
This race really is Binocular versus the very best that can challenge him, and everything is nicely priced enough to have a crack at him. The best Champ Hurdle in a while.
I didnt say I backed him Diceman, but every time I look at the card I keep being drawn to that horse for some reason, looking at his form and after his lay off I couldnt even consider backing him, especially with their being no money for it, just thinking about soft ground and on pedigree that one is Bering/Highest Honour, but that is probably the one positive next to a hundered negatives.
oh Tuffers..if you’re that desperate back Ebaziyan [like I have!!!]…
I learnt my lesson with him last year!
Very sad for Sizing Europe fans – maybe he’ll make Aintree?
I really see this race as a watching race now. I suppose if Binny were to drift to 2/1 or more I would then consider him a tempting price.
Zip
I didnt say I backed him Diceman, but every time I look at the card I keep being drawn to that horse for some reason, looking at his form and after his lay off I couldnt even consider backing him, especially with their being no money for it, just thinking about soft ground and on pedigree that one is Bering/Highest Honour, but that is probably the one positive next to a hundered negatives.
heh I thought you had lost your mind!
I’m struggling on this one. We’ve got binocular what exactly has he done? he’s only beat 8 horses this season, and 4 of them don’t count. Celestial halo was a 16/1 shot, which he had already stuffed at aintree. Sentry Duty had given the same horse a similar beating! You have to respect NH’s judgement i suppose, i just hate these one horse races where you can back the one? Stinks i dunno just have to wait and see, can’t see past these pair though.
I am on a few of these at good prices ante-post. Including Celestial Halo and Crack Away Jack. But if it is not heavy, surely Binocular is a good bet at around 2/1. I make him a 6/5 chance! He’s the only one I make value in my 100% book.
Celestial Halo ran a long way below form at Doncaster and all three horses, CH, SD and Binocular have improved since. So that is surely not a good form line.
Mark
Value Is EverythingI think this (and possibly the world hurdle too) is going to be an epic race, the cut in the ground ahs addressed the balance regarding binocular, and theres value galore if you want to take him on.
This is the only place where Binocular has ever been beaten (saying that he has opnly ever raced here, ascot, haydock kempton and aintree, and in every race bar cheltenahm and his debut it has been good ground on those flat tracks) but it was on gd-sft at an average pace last year that he was outstayed. This year its looking closer to soft, the pace should be well above average and anyone that takes less than 5-1 on him, against this sort of opposition + on these terms is stark raving mad IMO.
If Binocular wins then I’ll be happy enough with my 20-1 but I really dont see that happening, I’d say that there is actually a fair enough chance that he might not place.
Henderson has already stated that he doesnt think Punjabi will get up the hill this year and that he thinks that they will try to gallop Binocular out of it.
Nicholls has said "Binocular has beaten us twice but this is a different track".
I fully expect they are going to try to run him ragged and if he manages to come out of this with a win, despite having next to nothing in his favour in terms of pace and ground against what looks like some very good opposition then he’ll be an absolute great, but I think that is less likely than likely to happen, and I’m surprised that virtually no emphasis has been placed on why he has been kept to flat tracks on good ground this season.
If this race isnt the race of the festival Im going to be disappointed.
- Total Posts 17716
I always said that Inglis Drever could have won a Champion Hurdle, in his younger days at least, and I’m wondering whether this year’s race would have been tailor-made for the likes of Kasbah Bliss. It’s all conjecture of course (and never likely to happen, given Francois Doumen’s ties to the World Hurdle), but a horse who travels, jumps and stays much further would have been a huge danger to Binocular in the likely conditions.
Still, I wouldn’t be feeling too confident if I were on Binocular to any appreciable degree (much like Harry Findlay or our own FOF/Aristo) anyway. I’m happy with my ante-post interests in Jered and Osana, and will likely sit back and enjoy what should be a sensational contest.
- Total Posts 17716
I am on a few of these at good prices ante-post. Including Celestial Halo and Crack Away Jack. But if it is not heavy, surely Binocular is a good bet at around 2/1. I make him a 6/5 chance! He’s the only one I make value in my 100% book.
Celestial Halo ran a long way below form at Doncaster and all three horses, CH, SD and Binocular have improved since. So that is surely not a good form line.
Mark
Celestial Halo "ran a long way below form" only if you ignore that he was held up in a race run at a crawl, and that he was always going to be disadvantaged against a speed horse such as Sentry Duty. Barring accidents, SD hasn’t a snowball in hell’s chance of upholding that form today.
It is also worth noting that Celestial Halo’s 2 subsequent defeats against Binocular came once around the sharp Aintree 2m, and at Ascot in a race – according to Nick Mordin’s sectionals – that was run almost 5 seconds slower for the first half of the race than Sentry Duty’s on the same day, yet the former was still run in a faster time. Make no mistake, CH is a force to be reckoned with, and his whole season (Much like Binocular’s and Osana’s) has been geared towards winning this one race.
As I said some months ago, CH looks a cast-iron bet to make the first 3, but Ruby, without the aid of the pacemaker that was originally the stable’s intention, faces a Herculean task in ensuring he doesn’t overdo the pace in his efforts to blunt Binocular’s speed. Osana still comes into the mix, and if Andrew McNamara can ride a better-judged race than Tom Scudamore did last year, then Binocular’s stamina will be tested as it never has before.
Binocular has reportedly improved and strengthened since last year, but he will need to have, to achieve something he couldn’t against lesser horses in the Supreme. Personally, I hope he does it, but would regard a win and place bet on Celestial Halo as a much safer vehicle for any sizeable investment.If it is genuinely soft ground (which it looks like this morning) I just hope Celestial Halo doesn’t go too soon. This could be frantic and even the real stayers cannot commit too early.
Just have a funny feeling about Katchit – I know hes out of form etc etc but it takes a decent 5 yo to win and when the do usually they are very good horses. This horses record at chelt is second to none – thinking about the other horses that have won/done well at races in the festival and move to the champion hurdle this year – its easy to forget this horse has been there and done it the last 2 yrs. If it develops into a battle up the hill which it may do given the rain that just woke me up (no mean feat
) and he can get his head in front I wouldnt want to be on anything trying to get past. Thats a big if but I know who I will be cheering home – will bring the house down if he can do it 
This is the race I have been looking forward to the most. Today we will find out if Bin is the all-terrain champ or the sort to win the trials but not the champion hurdle itself. He is hard to knock and I have an interest in him. I am hoping Katchit returns to his best and gives him a run for his money. At the forecast SP Punjabi doesn’t look bad value.
Good luck everyone!
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.