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Churchill Stakes 2017

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  • #1327155
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1874

    Away from the jumping tomorrow, there are a couple of good TV races at Lingfield.

    One of those is the Churchill (Listed).

    I think this is quite a good betting race because none of the front four in the market inspire much confidence at the prices. Victory Bond is prone to throwing in a total stinker, Boynton looks either pig ignorant or doggy, Battalion’s fitness must be a question mark and I feel Ayrad has been a little flat this season.

    I’ve already had an ante-post go on the French raider In The Lope. Pia Brandt has already had plenty of success in this country. The form of In The Lope’s lastest win is nothing special (2nd subsequently down the field in a Listed race) but the visual impression is quite striking.

    Spot the yellow cap in midfield:

    I might also play Lingfield specialist Petite Jack as a saver.

    #1327168
    Avatar photobotchy1
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    • Total Posts 6563

    Very nice that one LS, cheers :good:

    Gone for an E/W @ 25’s

    #1327175
    BrixtonBoy
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    • Total Posts 79

    Thanks LS3 – video’s enough to convince me for a small EW!

    #1327181
    Avatar photoChivers1987
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    • Total Posts 2431

    Looks a bit of a disappointing race to be honest. I’m sure we will see a much stronger line up come finals day next year.
    Good luck with In The Lope, tidy price for an unknown quantity in a race of this quality.
    The 1m class 2 handicap and 6f listed race have piqued my interest more but I will watch this with vested interest in the future trials.

    #1327208
    Avatar photoraymo61
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    • Total Posts 6945

    I fancy AYRAD for this. It is its ideal trip IMO and the trainers form is still very good but it seems to be win or bust!! Am on at 11/2 and a saver on Petite Jack at 14/1

    #1327227
    Avatar photostevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8241

    I am struggling to recall many Pia Brandt winners.

    Like any good sceptic I thought I would check it out.

    The Racing Post have the last five years as throwing up ONE winner for Pia Brandt from 17 runners in the UK. At The Races have exactly the same stats for the trainer “All Time” in the UK.

    The horse is rated lowest on RPR in the race on 82 and his official rating is 89.

    If this race were a Handicap In The Lope would be getting 20 lbs from Boynton, as things stand here, they clash on level weights.

    All 8 horses who have run from In The Lope’s previous race have been beaten since.

    All in all, I think he’s got a ton on. The final mystery is why they gelded the horse two weeks ago? Maybe that will do the trick but I feel overall that it will need to have made a huge difference.

    Not sure I will play but if so it will probably be Petite Jack. Anywhere else I wouldn’t be thinking about it but he’s 5/7 at Lingfield and his only other win was one at Chelmsford. At 14/1 I strongly suggest, like Bargain Hunt, that you go with your Bonus Buy LS3 :yes:

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1327230
    Avatar photoTriptych
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    Hoping that Boynton will win this one. He is a Group 2 winner (Superlative Stakes) and proven on the All Weather.
    The main danger will be Victory Bond, but if Boynton can get out of the stalls and quickly away this time he will gain a victory over the William Haggas trained gelding who beat him by half a length at Chelmsford last time out.

    Boynton _WIN

    Boynton
    Victory Bond
    Rev. Forecast

    Jac
    :good:

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #1327380
    Avatar photoCharlesOlney
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    • Total Posts 2031

    Being in jumps mode it’s difficult to switch tack and try and find something to poke at in a Listed event round Lingfield but I’ve had a nibble on Master The World at 11/1. 3rd in this last year when running a cracker and has been kept fit from his recent excursions on the turf over further than ideal trips.

    #1327381
    Avatar photoCharlesOlney
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    • Total Posts 2031

    Being in jumps mode it’s difficult to switch tack and try and find something to poke at in a Listed event round Lingfield but I’ve had a nibble on Master The World at 11/1. 3rd in this last year when running a cracker and has been kept fit from his recent excursions on the turf over further than ideal trips.

    Each-way 1/4 odds 3 places with Bet365.

    #1327383
    Avatar photoMiddle_Of_March
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    • Total Posts 2833

    Backed the two favourites in a multiple for the two ITV races.

    Boynton in this and Spring Loaded in the other. Think both are frankly the two class horses.

    #1327422
    Avatar photoCharlesOlney
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    • Total Posts 2031

    Being in jumps mode it’s difficult to switch tack and try and find something to poke at in a Listed event round Lingfield but I’ve had a nibble on Master The World at 11/1. 3rd in this last year when running a cracker and has been kept fit from his recent excursions on the turf over further than ideal trips.

    I’m getting embarrassed now.

    #1327423
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1874

    What a day for you, Charles! Any tips for the lottery numbers?

    #1327424
    Avatar photoChivers1987
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    • Total Posts 2431

    Nice work Charles. The hardest part was getting him in the stalls.
    Didn’t fancy this race, two main market principles were poor value and it was clear early on Boynton wasn’t going to last home.

    #1327427
    Avatar photobotchy1
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    • Total Posts 6563

    Great stuff Charles, what a day for you. :good:

    #1327429
    BrixtonBoy
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    • Total Posts 79

    Thought the french raider was a tad unlucky, was bumped several times between horses after leaving the stalls, jockey had to settle him slightly deeper than he wanted. Had to take him very wide coming off the final turn and he did finish very strongly, making up a lot of ground and narrowly missing out on a place. Was a decent EW bet in my book.

    #1327567
    Avatar photoTriptych
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    • Total Posts 18730

    Well plotted with Master The World Charles :good:

    Feel like he’s an old friend the amount of times he turns out at Newmarket, more often than the opening of a tin of beans, and he always looks the part. Really pleased that he turned in such a good run yesterday and perhaps he has now found his distance and a liking for the All Weather.

    Know now that Boynton’s ideal is no further than 1 mile so won’t rule him out just yet. Jac :rose:

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
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