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My own feeling is that they
won’t
turn up.
That’s my feeling anyway and I’d put money on it if I could get Evens
And the Evens is landed as The New One won’t be lining up at Kempton.
Nigel Twiston-Davies said:-
"I just think it’s better spacing for us. It gives him more time after his last run and he doesn’t have so long to wait for the Champion Hurdle."
Perhaps that’s the truth of it but a large belch of intestinal gas followed by the sound of liquid running just after he had finished talking perhaps betrayed another agenda at work
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
William Hill are the only firm quoting odds on this race at the moment. They go 8/11 Faugheen and Evens for The New One, which is way different from the original Paddy Power odds.
With The New One now out Faugheen is now 4/9 with Paddy Power and Hills.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
William Hill are the only firm quoting odds on this race at the moment. They go 8/11 Faugheen and Evens for The New One, which is way different from the original Paddy Power odds.
With The New One now out Faugheen is now 4/9 with Paddy Power and Hills.
I think those earlier WH odds were for a match between Faugheen and The New One, and presumably both had to run.
I suppose they want to keep the dream alive until March.
I think those earlier WH odds were for a match between Faugheen and The New One, and presumably both had to run.
I suppose they want to keep the dream alive until March.
Could well have been Tommy, I just had a quick look.
Interesting though that Faugheen was 4/9 with The New One in the list and now still 4/9 with him out of the picture. If he can’t win this now, there will be no point in lining up in The Champion Hurdle.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think those earlier WH odds were for a match between Faugheen and The New One, and presumably both had to run.
I suppose they want to keep the dream alive until March.
Could well have been Tommy, I just had a quick look.
Interesting though that Faugheen was 4/9 with The New One in the list and now still 4/9 with him out of the picture. If he can’t win this now, there will be no point in lining up in The Champion Hurdle.
True enough, although outside the big three, Irving is probably next best, and at a track that should play to his strengths. I have ultimate faith in Faugheen though, expecting something special on St. Stephen’s Day.
Back aboard the Purple Bay dream train, the view looks skewed. His Elite win seems solid, with 3 of the 6 who’ve run since from that race winning. I’m pretty confident he’d have beaten Irving that day, yet Irving is 9/2 to PB’s 20s. I know there’s a weight difference, but bot that much.
Pity there are just 7 runners.
Back aboard the Purple Bay dream train, the view looks skewed. His Elite win seems solid, with 3 of the 6 who’ve run since from that race winning. I’m pretty confident he’d have beaten Irving that day, yet Irving is 9/2 to PB’s 20s. I know there’s a weight difference, but bot that much.
Pity there are just 7 runners.
Purple Bay probably had quite a massive fitness advantage given his activity in the summer and the way the Nicholls horses were running FTO at the time too.
As founding member of the Purple Bay Fan Club do you think he might suit blinkers? He’s dogged a few finishes in the past and hits his flat spots in most races, so I get the impression they might eke out some improvement.
TYF, fair comment on the fitness side. As to temperament, well, connections must have had some doubts, as they put a hood on at Taunton, but his age is one of the key reasons I’m attracted to him. I think he’s still learning and growing physically.
Things that concern me are how he got outpaced at Wincanton having travelled well (I don’t think that was temperament), and I believe there’s a strong chance he prefers going right-handed, and, perhaps soft ground.
Ferguson, via twitter, reports him ‘on course for Kempton’, where we will finally find out how good he is. He’s young, well bred, well made, and bar his close up 7th in the Galway Hurdle, has been out of the first 2 just once over hurdles (4th, beaten under 5L by Zamdy Man).
As I’ve said, I’m not claiming he’s a champion in waiting, but I think the Irving fall took a lot of the focus from the style in which he won the Elite, and that he’s excellent value at the moment for future engagements.
Assuming Ruby sets a strong but even pace at Kempton, that should help PB, and I expect him to finish ahead of Irving, a horse I think is more than decent.
Not a race for having a bet on for me and it’s quite tricky to say who the horse for the forecast would be if you believe Faugheen is a good thing here.
Willie Mullins has said:-
"Faugheen has made "extraordinary" progress ahead of his latest big-race assignment in the williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle at Kempton"
The inference is that he was nowhere near straight for his seasonal debut and that has to be a concern for his rivals on Boxing Day.
Looking at the other contenders Sign Of A Victory seems weak in the market and needs to take his form to another level here. Easy race winners can be a beguiling sight and this fellow did it with a lot in hand when beating subsequent winner Dawalan, but it was only a handicap race and I just wonder if he’s truly good enough to ultimately be a live Champion Hurdle horse.
The same comments apply to Irving in a way but he has landed a Grade 1 race, albeit one with a weakish field for its status. Just the one bad run in the Supreme Novices but it wasn’t a great meeting for Nicholls full stop at the Cheltenham Festival. I feel Irving has a touch more class than Sign Of A Victory and he was impressive the last time he ran at Kempton, when winning the Gd 2 Dovecote Hurdle.
I know Joe’s a big Purple Bay fan but win, lose or draw (had Irving not fallen when they met at Wincanton), I felt the Nicholls horse was the one to take going forward from The Elite Hurdle. I expect Irving to hold Purple Bay fairly comfortably on this occasion but there is a huge difference in their odds and I can see Joe’s thinking on that score.
Ultimately it’s about what’s likely to happen though and Irving looks a solid bet to give Faugheen most to do.
I am hoping for a good show from Faugheen and to see him sitting at 6/4 for the Champion Hurdle in the aftermath.
There could be further waves in the market for that race when Jezki and Hurricane Fly clash on the 29th in The Ryanair Hurdle. The old boy is a shade of odds on for that one with Jezki 11/8 and the 40/1 for The Fly in March will look mighty big in retrospect if he can swat the younger reigning champ again.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Joe, just noticed that Purple Bay to win this and the Champion is 100/1 with Hills.
Personally I think Irving will win the match bet v Purple Bay tomorrow. He was slicker at Newcastle then he was as Wincanton and a big possibility fitter too. The way Purple Bay finished the race was impressive but I reckon his trainer had him spot on for that race and viewed it as the horses best chance to win a big-ish one(grade 2). I’d be surprised if he has more to come but Joe’s a great judge so I wouldn’t completely write him off.Blackbeard to conquer the World
So tempted to take a gamble on Sign Of A Victory. He strikes me as the horse who might give Faugheen a scare.
Irving is a bit ‘hit ‘n’ miss’ with me because his jumping leaves me on edge … tends to make the odd dive at a hurdle that reminds me of Oscar Whisky. If he’s on song, there’s a chance he’ll run a fine race but he slightly lacks the reliability factor for me.
While Faugheen is clearly a very talented animal and could easily make anyone look a fool who backs against him, there’s a hunch I have that Ruby Walsh may have to get serious with him today.
Does anyone think The New One would of gone with that?
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Purple Bay did really well considering he was under pressure before some of the more fancied rivals.
I don’t know what happened to Irving today, that was too bad to be true and his earlier form with today’s runner up should have put him right into the mix for the places.
Sign Of A Victory looked to travel well enough but as soon as the going got tough the only Sign we saw was the white flag which was run to the top of the mast in record time. His limitations looked well exposed today and connections must surely be thinking of a Cheltenham target other than the Champion Hurdle.
Ladbrokes go 7/4 Faugheen for The Champion and that’s a little bigger than I expected. He’s generally shorter than that now and as low as Evens with some firms.
He looks the one they all have to beat in March.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Faugheen looks a monster. Purple Bay cannot jump. He was awkward and flat footed at every flight bar the 4th, not that it made much difference.
If they can teach him to jump before March, which I doubt, he could grab a place in the big one as the hill should suit and he probably has more improvement in him. He could be raised to 165 after this.
Irving was found to have pus in his foot this morning. Perhaps that explains his poor showing yesterday.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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