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The machine is back. Stripped a lot fitter as Rich mentioned (15k lighter).
Champion hurdle winner.
Nigel seems determined to stick with the CH for TNO. He’s undoubtedly a much happier horse now he’s not hurting, but today showed that that his ailment was not the source of his lack of acceleration at crucial points.
Far too much was made of his misfortune when hampered by Our Conor in 2014. He lost that race because he could not quicken when the others did. He gets to top speed eventually, but needs to shift through three more gears than the top-notchers to do so.
I hope they relent and send him to the World Hurdle (which would be the best WH for many years if they did), but I suspect Cue Card’s win today will have Nigel saying something like, ‘If Cue Card can win at the 4th time of asking in the KG, why can’t TNO do it on his third in the Champion Hurdle?’
The one who will feel most satisfied today will be young Sam who has managed to keep his boss sweet, confirm that Old Guard is nowhere near Champion Hurdle class (even if he was a bit flat after a busy time), and retain the ride on TNO wherever he goes at the festival
Faugheen was really impressive today; dsepite not being most fluent hurdler, he has such an engine. Still would love to see him over fences, but won’t happen now
Thanks to the horse for getting my each way and “betting without” bets up today. But The New One just as well stay at home in March. Won’t be good enough at 2m or 3m around Cheltenham. It’s clear whatever ailed him last year (supposedly a kissing spine) is still there. When TNO was at his best he didn’t go out to the right anywhere near as much as he does consistently now. You can’t do that at Cheltenham. The form he showed today was in the same league as most of last year. Unless they can find something else wrong (trapped epiglottis?) – got to face it – the days of The Twister’s One bustling up the best hurdlers around look sadly over.
Value Is EverythingThat would put wb 5lbs higher than any previous run. Bit generous maybe and talking of top notch….the subsequent run?
He is erratic. Was awful at sandown last year and I don’t take handicapping at face value but clearly peace and co is not being rated on last run ? I don’t fancy him now either but it was an all over the place performance and there is a strong case for a line through that .
His subsequent run was poor, there is no denying that, but running in that race was an afterthought. WB is a very quirky and inconsistent horse, on a good day which by all accounts he was on in the morgiana he can put it up to most horses, on a bad day he can be pretty awful. Newcastle was also his 14th run without any significant couple of months rest. I’m no handicapper and I believe we can get too caught up in ratings but if I were to give ratings for the morgiana alone in terms of what they ran to I would rate NC at 163, faugheen at 162 and WB at 158. It’s actually ridiculous that Top Notch is only rated two pounds below Nichols Canyon as we speak and that peace and co is only one pound below him. If those three horses were running in a handicap with NC giving peace and co a pound and top notch two pounds, NC would destroy them. I know British and Irish ratings can be slightly different but that seems a nonsense to me.
Phil Smith the handicapper seems to agree with me. He rated Nichols canyon at 163 and Wicklow brave at 160. My estimates of NC 163 and WB at 158 weren’t too far off
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