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Neither are overrated in any way shape or form – TNO is a very good horse (dual G1 winner) that has simply been found out at the very highest level (i.e. the Champion Hurdle).
I think the Faugheen reversal was simply down to the trainer obviously leaving something to work on with him thinking his class would allow him get away with it but instead he was caught out by a fitter Nichols Canyon who being a 4 time G1 winner himself was a much classier opponent than those Faugheen faced at Ascot 1st time out last year.
Much has been said about him working all over NC in the build up to the race but both Mullins & Gosden (who trained NC on the flat) have stated he never does much on the gallops anyway. Connections may have been fooled by the fact that Faugheen may have just done nothing more than a nice piece of work against a horse that does nothing more than the bare minimum asked of him and saves his best for the track.
Kempton will tell us a lot more as to where Faugheen is, as an A1 TNO should give him a relatvely stiff test (which we would all expect Faugheen to pass without undue alarm). Old Guard needs to step up massively on all known form and I don’t think he will get a truly run race which seems to suit him ideally – was surprised that STD is riding him as I thought he had an agreement in place when he went to Nichols that he would always retain the ride on TNO (unless he knows something that we don’t about TNO).
Clive by overrated I mean people still believe the horse is capable of winning a good grade one race. Last season he won 4 out of five races, beating some very average horses by only a length or two. The race he didn’t win was the champion hurdle where he was beaten easily by 4 top class horses. There is no denying that the new one is a good horse but no more than a consistent grade two winner. He prepared for the champion hurdle by winning a couple of grade twos and a class two race. Faugheen and hurricane fly prepared by winning grade one races. Yet people were still stupid enough to believe that the new one would suddenly get another gear from somewhere. In relation to your nonsense about faugheen being overrated he won the champion hurdle eased down, he destroyed the Christmas hurdle field. Soundly beat arctic fire again in punchestoen, and in his one defeat he was only back from a break, ridden off the pace and was closing all the way to the line to within half a length of another outstanding grade one horse in Nichols Canyon.
absolutely spot on in regards to both horses IMO. good post.
On Sam’s decision, I suspect Graham Cunningham called it right; although Sam has the choice, had he gone for TNO and Old Guard finishes ahead of TNO on Saturday, he might lose the Champion Hurdle ride on Old Guard. TNO’s already had two cracks at the CH, and it would seem unlikely he’d be a hot contender in March, whereas if OG carries on improving, who knows? (I believe if there is an overrated horse in the field, it is Old Guard by some measure).
Anyway, it seems more of a political decision by Sam, which might also have been bolstered by him thinking that at Ditcheat his jacket, as we say in Scotland, might be on a shaky nail.
As to the race, you’d expect Faugheen to see them off with a minimum of fuss, but I certainly would not be backing him. Reportedly he returned after his defeat with a sore mouth; speculation was that it resulted from Ruby trying to correct his hanging. A horse who hangs that badly under pressure, especially if he has not done so before, should always be treated with caution until he shows it was a one-off, imo. He could have an undiagnosed problem causing him pain under pressure at race pace.
TNO knows all about that scenario – he has been wrong for the past two seasons imo. Never looked happy, carried his head awkwardly, consistently jumped off line, even more so under pressure (I’m not after-timing BTW: I said on here for some time the horse was not physically right). Anyway, he was treated for a kissing spine and, although he still jumped right a couple of times at Kempton, he looked an awful lot happier in his general demeanour, racing with relish and flying the last in the style of a horse really enjoying himself.
He still took a wee bit of time to put the race to bed and therein lies the weakness that will probably stop him ever winning a CH (he’s the same age as Faugheen) – he takes too long to hit top speed. But here too a caveat might be wise; how much of that tendency, if any, might have been down to his ailment? Has he had to get himself through a pain barrier in the past when asked to quicken? The most stark examples have been in the CH when the pace quickened down the hill and he’s been caught flat-footed.
So, two questions: is Faugheen physically okay? Could TNO’s spine problem have been affecting his ability to quicken?
The most likely outcome, I think, will be victory for Faugheen and TNO’s Cheltenham signpost will be twisted to point toward the World Hurdle.
A fascinating race in prospect, despite the small turnout.
Clive by overrated I mean people still believe the horse is capable of winning a good grade one race. Last season he won 4 out of five races, beating some very average horses by only a length or two. The race he didn’t win was the champion hurdle where he was beaten easily by 4 top class horses. There is no denying that the new one is a good horse but no more than a consistent grade two winner. He prepared for the champion hurdle by winning a couple of grade twos and a class two race. Faugheen and hurricane fly prepared by winning grade one races. Yet people were still stupid enough to believe that the new one would suddenly get another gear from somewhere. In relation to your nonsense about faugheen being overrated he won the champion hurdle eased down, he destroyed the Christmas hurdle field. Soundly beat arctic fire again in punchestoen, and in his one defeat he was only back from a break, ridden off the pace and was closing all the way to the line to within half a length of another outstanding grade one horse in Nichols Canyon.
Suddenly nc is outstanding but that’s not the form of the race which stands out is it? It’s the proximity of the third, who has done nothing. Of course he wasn’t 100% but there is no doubt at all he disappointed connections.
I would correct myself and say that he certainly wasn’t overrated last season. I thought he was going to be pretty unbeatable for some time to come and may stil,be
But It was not a good run and as superb as he was last year there might well be a doubt now. I also didn’t like the way he pulled around a bit under pressure. As highlighted in above good post.
Nichols Canyon is outstanding. Last season he won 4 grade ones out of the 6 he participated in. Of the two he didn’t win one was an unseated rider and the other was a terrible tactical ride by dropping him in. This season he wins the morgiana. NC is an outstanding horse and it took an outstanding horse to beat an unfit faugheen who hung left and who was ridden off the pace, yet with all those things against faugheen he only lost by half a length closing all the time. In relation to Wicklow brave, your right Clive he has done nothing before the morgiana, of course, other than win the county hurdle by 8 lengths, come 4th in the Queen Alexandra stakes in Royal Ascot, come second in the Ebor at York by 1.5 lengths, come 3rd in the Irish St Ledger, and come third in the Group 2 long distance cup in Ascot by two lengths, many would argue however that this certainly amounts to more than “done nothing”.
And his subsequent run? I’m really not interested in his handicap flat form
Faugheen is rated 174 and wb 152. On the face of it running 20 odd lbs below rating is more than just a fitness worry perhaps?
His subsequent run was poor, there is no denying that, but running in that race was an afterthought. WB is a very quirky and inconsistent horse, on a good day which by all accounts he was on in the morgiana he can put it up to most horses, on a bad day he can be pretty awful. Newcastle was also his 14th run without any significant couple of months rest. I’m no handicapper and I believe we can get too caught up in ratings but if I were to give ratings for the morgiana alone in terms of what they ran to I would rate NC at 163, faugheen at 162 and WB at 158. It’s actually ridiculous that Top Notch is only rated two pounds below Nichols Canyon as we speak and that peace and co is only one pound below him. If those three horses were running in a handicap with NC giving peace and co a pound and top notch two pounds, NC would destroy them. I know British and Irish ratings can be slightly different but that seems a nonsense to me.
That would put wb 5lbs higher than any previous run. Bit generous maybe and talking of top notch….the subsequent run?
He is erratic. Was awful at sandown last year and I don’t take handicapping at face value but clearly peace and co is not being rated on last run ? I don’t fancy him now either but it was an all over the place performance and there is a strong case for a line through that .
Yes Clive I don’t believe it is unrealistic to suggest that WB improved to 5 pounds better than he ever ran before over hurdles, the horse is improving all the time, he is still just a six year old with limited exposure over hurdles so i dont believe its that controversial to suggest that WB ran to a rating 5 lb higher than ever before, after all he did come a close third in a grade one, 158 doesn’t seem ridiculous. And the form between top notch and Irving from haydock to Newcastle, coupled with the view that WB was on a lazy day renders the form of the fighting fifth pretty insignificant.
the trouble with rating that race is that there were effectively only three runners and no realistic fourth yardstick. Also one clearly ran well below form but we don’t know how much precisely so putting th other two up around 5 to 8 lbs each is pure guesswork.
Its why, like you, I don’t obsess over ratings. Useful guideline but as before, my main concern would be the way he pulled around and the possibility, which is hardly unknown for muslins runners, that he may have peaked early
Won’t oppose him tomorrow but would never ever back or have an interest at those odds
I think The New One is worth a bet at around 7/1.
I don’t believe he was right last season. Won some easy races without needing to run to form. Diagnosed with a kissing spine after Cheltenham. Anyone judging TNO on his Cheltenham form is not judging him at his best. Neither was he at his best in the previous Champion Hurdle, badly hampered and lost significant ground, but for which he’d probably have gone very close, finishing fastest of all. Just a neck and 2 1/2 lengths behind Jezki and My Tent Or Yours. I believe it is fair to rate him as finishing alongside the latter…Too much is made of how many Grade 1 races a horse wins. It often requires the same level of form to win one Grade 1 as it does four. Punters also tend to under-estimate the form of a second place. The New One arguably should have already won a Christmas Hurdle. Making a mistake at the last and losing valuable momentum, going down by just half a length to My Tent Or Yours. So for people to say TNO isn’t a Grade 1 performer is crazy. The New One can quite easily be rated the equal of My Tent Or Yours who failed in the Champion Hurdle by a neck!
At his best TNO is not a slow horse either. That Christmas Hurdle was not particularly strongly run. They turned for home with the eventual third Samatigal, who finished 28 lengths back. When the tap was turned on Sam at first had AP in trouble. Although might (only might) have lost a bit of toe since.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d put Faugheen ahead of The New One if both produced their best. But at their bests imo we’d only be talking around 5 or 6 lengths at most. And yet one is long odds-on and the other 7/1. At that price latter only needs a 12.5% chance of winning to be a good bet.
It’s by no means certain TNO will ever get back to his best, personally it would bother me more going left-handed. Jumped slightly right last time, still a doubt this way around but not as big. Where as Faugheen jumped left-handed on reappearance and carried his head to one side. I’d still say Faugheen is the more likely to run to form (particularly as there’s a good chance he’ll be back to front-running tactics). But again, we’re talking about a long odds-on shot Vs 7/1 and is possible Noel Fehily could take Ruby on. TNO’s change of jockey a “+” for me.
Old Gaurd’s form is not Grade 1 yet and probably never will. Beat Sempre Medici 1 length with Hargam a further neck away in third in the International. I believe the Henderson horse is better on a sounder surface (ditto rank outsider Sign Of A Victory). Sempre Medici is probably only the Mullins 6th or 7th string for the Champion Hurdle.
Am sure many will make much of Master Twister’s supposed choice of Old Gaurd, but it looks racing politics to me. Sam came in for some criticism of late and doesn’t want to upset the applecart. The New One only needs to run to his best to beat the rest easily, so 7/1 appears value to me.
Value Is EverythingI’m with you on this one Gingertipster. Of course Faugheen is the most likely winner but The New One is a massive price. I’ve taken 9.4 on Betfair.
While the obvious likely winner, Faugheen isn’t past the post yet and should you ever be scared of one horse? Faugheen’s defeat on his reappearance came as a surprise to everyone, his stable included. Ruby was desperate to win that race on Faugheen, it was no hands and heels stuff he was clearly expected to win. Is it possible the horse is feeling something? Is it possible he may lack pace at two miles now as in his novice days he was initially thought of as a horse that wanted further than two miles, indeed he’s won over three miles?
Whatever, it has got to be worth taking him on at 1/3 with The New One at 8.4 / 1.
Very good post ginger
I am laughing here imagining you posting that on another forum where you daren’t discuss the horse for the torrent of hostility towards him. I did and have given up
It is rather amusing that off the back of his first ever defeat on his seasonal debut, in some media people’s minds the wheels have now well and truly come off the Faugheen machine – questioning whether he is still the same horse from last year, why was he hanging, is he making more jumping mistakes, did Ruby get the tactics wrong in not making the running and will he make the running today.
Unfortunately, when you have a season where you put up a number of spectacular performances and remain unbeaten you end being being judged more harshly as the expectations are that much higher and the very minute you don’t match or exceed them your ability is put into question………..
It is rather amusing that off the back of his first ever defeat on his seasonal debut, in some media people’s minds the wheels have now well and truly come off the Faugheen machine – questioning whether he is still the same horse from last year, why was he hanging, is he making more jumping mistakes, did Ruby get the tactics wrong in not making the running and will he make the running today.
Unfortunately, when you have a season where you put up a number of spectacular performances and remain unbeaten you end being being judged more harshly as the expectations are that much higher and the very minute you don’t match or exceed them your ability is put into question………..
It’s better to question before a race than be a smart arse immediately after one.
Personally I expect Faugheen to win and win well but at the prices, with doubts however small, I figure it’s worth a dabble on The New One.
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