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MTOY and TNO have met 6 times. MTOY leads 4-2.
TNO led home a 1-2 with MTOY in a bumper and the Bula the other day.
Interestingly MTOY has only beaten TNO once when it came to winning the race – he beat TNO in this race a few years back. The other ‘wins’ were for better places: twice in the Champion Hurdle (including 9 months ago when MTOY hadn’t run in an eternity) and in the Aintree Hurdle.
MTOY’s a funny animal. I would expect him to beat TNO if they’re fighting over 2nd place, but I wouldn’t expect him to win if they’re fighting for the win. Not a great surprise to see MTOY without a victory since AP stopped riding him. Can they give Richard Johnson the ride? You can call him a dog, but he just isn’t. I suspect the same people who call MTOY a dog are the same people who were calling Flintshire a dog. He’s finished in the top 3 on 100% of his starts. He’s raced 19 times and he’s not only completed every start, but finished in the top 3. That’s an unbelievable record. Good luck finding another horse with that kind of reliability.
I think some of his defeats have genuine excuses – 2 defeats last season came to horses he was giving 7lbs to. He’d also come off a long absence, and I suspect he’s a better horse when fresh. Unsurprisingly his seasonal reappearance formline is superb: 11123. The 2nd was in the Champion Hurdle, the 3rd was a silly race in heavy ground. He’s only won 1 of his 2nd starts of the season: 22122. The victory was this race in 2013.
Interestingly Geraghty’s record on the horse is not good: 222232. To put that into context, AP: 112112111123 (all 8 career wins + 4 places – a novice hurdle on heavy ground, the Supreme Novices’, the Champion Hurdle and Scottish Champion Hurdle). Fehily rode him once, which was his 3rd in heavy ground at the start of the year. So the fact that Geraghty’s off and Fehily’s on is actually a huge advantage IMO.
I think Yanworth will really struggle for pace + make a big mistake at some point. The pace element also comes into play. A slow pace is not going to suit Yanworth, but where is the pace going to come from? Will he jump out and try and make all? I’ve been backing him for the Stayers’ Hurdle at around 25s, so I hope he bombs out in this. I think he gives his hurdles a lot of air and gives away valuable ground and momentum, which will really hurt over this trip.
I couldn’t back Ch’tibello with stolen money. I cannot believe some people on this thread are actually taking his win over MTOY at face value. Use your common sense, ffs.
The 1000/1 shot should be 10 billion to 1. Even that would be too short.
Another TNO-MTOY forecast for me, although I really really hope MTOY wins. He’s 2/2 at Kempton and 5/6 going RH, defeated only by VVM + Identity Thief in April.
I think I’ve talked myself into laying Yanworth…
There’s No hill at Kempton…3 years on and My Tent or Yours wins again,particularly if there’s any ‘good’ in the ground,that will make up for the 8lb he has to find at least with his usual adversary TNO.5/1 is generous.10/1 was Xmas.Should be another cracker.
Conclusion:
Yanworth – I expected 158, was outpaced but may have done 167 so big improvement & entitled to go for Champion Hurdle.
The New One – expected 168, new bit & forcing tactics (perhaps not so well executed by STD compared to Dickie) not work as well second time, being pressed by MTOY probably a factor. Reverted back to level before last time, 163.
Ch’tibello – expected 146 so totally wrong about him. Must really like Good, massive improvement to 159.
My Tent Or Yours – gave benefit on ground to expect 160. No better than last time, 157. As good as is now.
Id suggest lower your ratings by 5 pounds for each of what you have said. There is no way it took a 167 performance to beat that lot. Faugheens champion hurdle win was a 173 performance and he hammered a high class field. There is no way yanworth ran to 167 by comparison.
Id suggest lower your ratings by 5 pounds for each of what you have said. There is no way it took a 167 performance to beat that lot. Faugheens champion hurdle win was a 173 performance and he hammered a high class field. There is no way yanworth ran to 167 by comparison.
You could well be right TWM. However, if Faugheen had been in form & running today I’d have been expecting 177-182.
I couldn’t back Ch’tibello with stolen money. I cannot believe some people on this thread are actually taking his win over MTOY at face value. Use your common sense, ffs.
Oops, he did it again – reproducing the form to within 2 llbs
I couldn’t back Ch’tibello with stolen money. I cannot believe some people on this thread are actually taking his win over MTOY at face value. Use your common sense, ffs.
Oops, he did it again – reproducing the form to within 2 llbs
MTOY was essentially used as a pacemaker. You think if he’d been held up, a la Yanworth/Ch’tibello, the result would’ve been the same? Zero chance.
Zark, who needs a pacemaker with TNO in the race? MTOY was supported in the market which suggests he was there to run on his merits and as it happened travelled as sweetly as I’ve seen him and ran as well as he can these days. He’s not up to it anymore. You’ve got him wrong twice recently – which anyone can do – but you’re abrasively and contemptuously dismissive of others in doing so. And then you try to find some way to argue that you were actually not really wrong in your assessment. You dismiss others as fools and then end up looking foolish yourself.
He’s not the horse he was. Occasionally he flares up when a set of unusually perfect conditions come together for him and he runs a decent race. But those are few and far between.
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