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One of the highlights of the season for 2yo fillies and a race favoured by the legendary Sir Gordon Richards who rode 9 winners in his time.
As I write this 11 horses stand their ground for this years race on Saturday at 3:10. I have looked through the trends and found 2 that might have a big influence on the race…
All of the last 15 winners had placed either 1st or 2nd last time out.
Applying these trends leaves 4 horses…
Explosive Lady
High Celebrity
Lucida
Tiggy WiggyThe other trend cannot be applied until the overnight declarations have been published…
All of the last 10 winners were drawn in stalls 1-6.
I think Explosive Lady is out of her depth and the if the going stays soft(ish) then the going is likly to be against her.
High Celebrity won a Group 3 last time out but struggled in the Duchess of Cambridge (Group 2) before that with the winner of that race Arabian Queen, struggling in the Sweet Solera (Group 3) next time out. Form looks weak.
Lucida was runner up in the Debutante Stakes (Group 2) and then last time out in the Moygalre Stud Stakes (Group 1) both times within a length of the winner but again on Good to Firm going. Having not run on softer going, she might be worth taking a chance on.
This leaves Tiggy Wiggy who has always been in the first 2 in her 7 races to date. She has won twice on Soft and also on Good to Firm. She beat Cursory Glance who then won the Moyglare Stud next time out beating Lucida. The only question mark I can see is that she only has one 6f race under her belt (Lowther Stakes – Group 2) but she won that and stayed on under pressure.
Should be a cracking race, I just hoe there is a decent size field and not too many of the current 11 drop out.
Good luck
Nice post Rich and good to have some statistical backing of Tiggy Wiggy.
I’m a mug and have been getting most things wrong this season, so naturally doubted Tiggy Wiggy until her Lowther win. That was a pretty special effort where she proved her speed endurance beyond much doubt. She built the race at a very solid pace to suit 1000 Guineas type Cursory Glance, but never looked like being outstayed by her.
With no extremes of ground likely, just Lucida and the regressive Anthem Alexander are the main dangers. You can’t beat our 11/8 on Tiggy Wiggy right now and I wouldn’t expect her to get any bigger.
A couple of concerns for me about Tiggy Wiggy at the odds.
If it is softish at Newmarket it will be a bigger test of stamina than on fast ground at York. The other worry is that she has been on the go since the 29th of March this season.
There is an old well/frequency ratio that sometimes proves to be true.
Interesting to see Arabian Queen is four times the price of High Celebrity despite beating her last time. I am sure someone will question the quick dismissal by bookies of the notion that she can confirm the form.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Form boost for Tiggy Wiggy (11/10) today with Lucida winning the Rockfel (Group 2), as she was runner up to Cursory Glance in the Moyglare Stud Stakes (Group 1). Cursory Glance was well held by Tiggy Wiggy in the Lowther (Group 2) in her previous run.
If not Tiggy Wiggy, then where is the likely winner coming from ?
Anthem Alexander (4/1) was 3rd in the Lowther 2 lengths behing Tiggy Wiggy but did give her 3lbs that day, tomorrow they are off levels. 3lbs for 2 lengths, is that enough ?
High Celebrity (9/2) is fancied but seemed to run out of steam a little in the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) in July over the same course and distance. She raced over 5½ furlongs at Chantilly next time out in a Group 3 winning comfortably, but will she be effective over 6 ? Last time at HQ was on Soft going and she won her Maiden on Good, so not one to rule out I think.
Tendu (7/1) has only raced in 2 Maidens, well beaten in the first, winning the second on the all weather at Kempton. Despite winning by 5 lengths the 3 horses who have raced since have not come out and shown a perforamnce worth noting.
Terror (12/1) is unexposed and I may be wrong, but I think she was supplemented at the 5 day stage. Raced only once before but did win her Maiden by 10 lengths. Again, no horses from that race that have run since have performed well.
If push came to shove then I think I would rather back a horse at 12/1 that won by 10 lengths on turf than one at 7/1 that won by 5 lengths on the all weather. The big question is, is either one good enough to beat Tiggy Wiggy ?
With her sprinter’s profile, smallish physique and busy season, you would probably write Tiggy Wiggy off as a classic contender for next year. She has an engine though and a remarkable constitution to go with it as she displayed all too well again today.
She seemed to see the trip out well enough today and it is remarkable to see a horse who started out on 29th March still winning races with the Arc just around the corner.
Talking of the Arc, Tiggy Wiggy is likely to turn up for the Prix L’Abbeye, as the owners are pretty keen to have a go. She is as low as 5/2 fav there but you can get 7/2. Richard Hannon seemed unsure about what weight she will have to carry and whether Richard Hughes could ride her but I’d be more worried that it’s a race a two year hasn’t won since 1978.
She could take a bit of catching though and I’d rather take 7/2 about her than 14/1 about Moviesta for the same race. In fact, I think I would rather knock my eyes out of the back my head with a fourteen pound hammer and drive them up the fourteenth fairway at Gleneagles with a mashie niblick, than take 14/1 Moviesta for the race once fondly referred to as the "Pricks Labia" by one of my former punters less au fait with the French language.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
All about this season, the here and now, if she does return at 3 I’d very much doubt she’d get a mile.
Hope she goes to Longchamp, I took 6/1 about her in the Ante-Post comp and need the points.
Hughes could ride a stone over weight and she would still win in France Steve…….
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After such a successful season and now a Group 1 winner, would connections even run her after this season ? Perhaps a 3yo win at Group level would mean a higher expectation from offspring leading to higher sales revenue etc etc. However failure as a 3yo would mean the offspring sales might not be lucrative. I don’t think the owner has any other racehorses and perhaps this is the one that secures a nice income for the next 15 or so years ?
The possible targets next season if she runs are likely to be…
Group 1
Darley July Cup 6f
Haydock’s Sprint Cup 6f
Group 2
Duke of York Stakes 6f
Temple Stakes 5f
King George Stakes 5fIf they think she can go further than 6f, but unlikely…
Lennox Stakes 7f
Hungerford Stakes 7f
Park Stakes 7fAll about this season, the here and now, if she does return at 3 I’d very much doubt she’d get a mile.
Hope she goes to Longchamp, I took 6/1 about her in the Ante-Post comp and need the points.
Hughes could ride a stone over weight and she would still win in France Steve…….
On Sunday Richard Hannon said the owners were keen to take Tiggy Wiggy to Longchamp but by Monday the mood was different and she was said to be a "far from certain" runner. This moved to unlikely and now she isn’t running.
They have said she was pretty tired after her latest run and that’s no surprise considering she started on the first day of the flat season. That was the reason I didn’t back her this time.
At her best she would have had an outstanding chance against the usual suspects in the L’Abbeye but we will just have to wait and see how she trains on and which path they take with her. I can’t see her getting more than 6f and there has to be a question as to whether she’ll be as good next year. Whatever happens she’s been a joy to watch and a credit to her trainer.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
To be fair I don’t think Hannon wanted to answer any questions about if she would be running or not and looked like he didn’t know what to say but I think it was Emma Spencer who kept banging on to him about it, I think he muttered they would go to shut her up.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
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