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Right, for those of us degenerate enough (I kid – we invest, not gamble) to love a good old Cheltenham short-priced Treble or Accumulator, who are the horses you’d consider putting in it?
For me there are Two that I can’t see getting beat, Constituion Hill (though a super short price so wouldn’t blame anyone for leaving him out) and Mighty Potter.
The others in contention to make Ben’s bet would be
– Allegori De Vassy (mares chase), looks a real class horse though her over-exuberant jumping and the rock solid form of Impervious makes me hesitant.
– Lossiemouth (triumph), yes she was unlucky over the weekend but I thought she’d have had enough in hand to win despite the unfortunate trip, add that to the fact that she had a harder race than you’d have hoped for and it tempers enthusiasm at 7/4.
– Jonbon/El Fabiolo (arkle), to be honest I’ll probably leave these two out, bit of a coin toss for me so best avoided when it comes to a short priced multiple.
– Gaillard Du Mensil (NH Chase), I’ve never been great at picking the winner of this race so would be more trusting Willie Mullins knowing what’s best for the horse rather than my own judgement, many on here seem confident in his chances though so that’d bolster my enthusiasm for adding him to the bet!
– Delta Work (x country), This would be putting faith in Gordon Elliot having revolved his season around this race, which it probably is, surely the most likely winner it’s just the price of evens that puts me off, though the past decade has shown it often proves to have blind faith when it comes to Cheltenham.
What are everyone elses thoughts on these shorter priced horses?
Delta Work if Galvin doesn’t run.
then…
GDM if he doesn’t go to the Brown Advisory.
Of the others –
ADV – i think she’ll win but she has some competition.
Lossiemouth – may well win but not as clear cut as before the weekend.
The Arkle doesn’t have a banker imo.
Honestly. At the prices. None of them.
Constitution hill looks bomb proof. But if you can’t find a better value bet all week then you shouldn’t be gambling.
Of the rest then maybe delta work. But 2/1 in a race of ups/downs/twists/turns/dips/drops and general lunacy? Not a cat in hells chance.
Lossiemouth and Jonbon both have legitimate opposition.
Mighty potter. 6/4 is criminal! Most likely winner but good horses against him. Injury, the fact it’s a novice (although jumps very well) ground. Way too many variables to make that seem worthwhile.
There is literally no value in any of the shorties now.
All the short priced favourites will be bigger on the day. Take Galopin Des Champs as an example. We are being asked to take 6/4 now. Who thinks he will be that price on the day?
Outside of the Grand National, Gold Cup day is the biggest betting day of the year. The bookmakers will be pushing the boat out. I can see GDC being priced up as at least 3/1 on the day, perhaps more.
Chezza has the distinction of having being blocked by “Blogger” on Twitter after Chezza accused him of trying to lead the similarly sockless and potless to the Poor House by urging them to pile onto short-priced “bankers,” thus continually making a complete “banker” of himself.
But even so, Chezza will enter into the spirit of this thread.
Constitution Hill – only an act of God can stop him and Chezza’s an agnostic (if Chezza can’t ever be entirely sure what wins a horse race what chance has Chezza got of predicting whether or not there’s a afterlife?)
Gaillard Du Mesnil – Running this horse at 2m4f has been like running Trueshan in the Nunthorpe. He needs every yard of the NH Chase trip and how he somehow still gets away with being defined as a novice chaser, Chezza will never know as the horse has more chasing experience by now than Red Rum.
Mighty Potter – He’s Mighty, and he’s a Potter. Enough said – weighed in!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“Mighty potter. 6/4 is criminal! Most likely winner but good horses against him. Injury, the fact it’s a novice (although jumps very well) ground. Way too many variables to make that seem worthwhile.”
To be honest Tizzards I’d have him as 1/2 at the moment, he’s already demolished the majorty of the horses he’s likely to face and his chances of getting injured are probably around 5-10% being only 5 weeks out from the festival, think 6/4 is actually a tremendous price!
I agree with all of your other comments other than the Constitution Hill one, he’s good value imo as he is a once in a lifetime type horse, it’s just a pity you need an enormous bankroll to back him on his own if you want to make any meaningful money!
Ben.. Skybet going 9/1 on El Fabiolo and Mighty Potter
I’m on Jonbon but had to take that tooBlackbeard to conquer the World
“Ben.. Skybet going 9/1 on El Fabiolo and Mighty Potter
I’m on Jonbon but had to take that too”I would take that Nathan but Skybet “self excluded” me a few weeks back, been back and forth with them via email and they said because Pokerstarts “self excluded” me then I’m excluded from Skybet too as they’re both owned by Flutter. Pokerstars have now stopped returning my emails regarding the self exclusion lol the whole things an absolute wind up so I’ve just left it lol no more skybet for me! It’s a good thing The Nice Guy got injured as my antepost bets on him were with Skybet!
Mighty Potter was very impressive but at so short you do have that one niggle of him not running well there last year
I’d say “don’t do it”! I keep a simple excel spreadsheet of all the results and every year there are invariably odds-on shots that lose. Shiskin last year, Chacun pour soi before that, Paisley Park the year before and these are just in the big four races.
Ben if you believe CH and MP are certainties then go with it, don’t listen to what others are telling you. If MP wins and you didn’t have him in your multiples you may be gutted. Go with your own gut that’s the most important thing.
“Ben if you believe CH and MP are certainties then go with it, don’t listen to what others are telling you. If MP wins and you didn’t have him in your multiples you may be gutted. Go with your own gut that’s the most important thing.”
Oh for sure Mike, always best to trust your gut in this game, I just also like to get all opinions and different points of view on board before making final decisions! Can’t do any harm having more information from other intelligent racing fans :)
Joking aside, once a horse is as short a price as Constitution Hill is, you’re no longer betting on whether or not it’s the best horse in the race – it is and everyone knows it, or should do.
You’re betting on whether or not an act of God can stop him – could he fall or be brought down, could he suddenly develop a wind problem or burst a blood vessel or be carrying a virus that only shows up on the day in the race?
At 1/3 or shorter, you’re effectively betting on the horse’s well-being and nothing external going wrong and those things are impossible to gauge.
So while I was happy to take 3/1 last March, I wouldn’t be happy to take 1/3 now.
If betting odds-on is your thing, you’ve got to be VERY selective and get it right virtually every time.
Or, as bookmaker Gary Selby once said: “the percentages will grind you down in the end.”
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"You’re spot on there Ian, as you said incredibly hard to make it pay when backing odds on shots regularly, a few a year and you’ll probably be alright if you’re the disciplined type and a good judge, but sadly that’s not most people and even then there are plenty of horses that look good-things on paper year round but get beaten by handicap plot jobs. Much safer to save the odds on shots for meetings like Cheltenham and Ascot. That’s partly why I started that thread a couple of months ago asking what the percentage chances are of a horse getting injured before the festival, but obviously that was incredibly hard to answer as there are just so many variables that make each individual horses chances different! I wanted to know whether the implied higher likelhood of favourites winning at these bigger festivals is negated by the risk of injuries.
I remember and it was a very good question to ask.
Unfortunately, very good questions are the ones that are the most difficult accurately to answer.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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