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Thought at this stage of the season having one thread for the Supreme/ballymore and bartlett would be a good idea as we are some way away from targets being confirmed
As it stands Facile Vega is the jolly in both the supreme and ballymore after looking exceptional in the champion bumper
Facile Vega way too short for the Supreme. Who was the last Champion Bumper winner to win the Supreme? Champagne Fever possibly? Too many unknown quantities from France and Irish P2P field. You’d have to be mad to take 5/2 this far out.
The only fancy I have is for the Ballymore. Kalanisi Star has progressed with each run. 4th on P2P debut to City Chief, he won next time and then routed the field on rules debut in a bog at Gowran in the same bumper Journey With Me and Bob Olinger have won in recent years. 33/1 but not had a bet yet given the amount of unknown quantities at this early stage
“Who was the last Champion Bumper winner to win the Supreme? Champagne Fever possibly?”
Yes, I think so. In recent years the bumper has been a better guide to the Ballymore, with Envoi Allen and Sir Gerhard both going on to win it.
5/2 on facile vega is indeed a woeful price for a horse who has never jumped a hurdle in public
Ignoring the price though he could be a superstar
He certainly looked it in the bumper
And being by walk in the park out of quevega is certainly bred to be
One of the horses I’m most looking forward to seeing
I had a few pennies on him for the Supreme before he ran in the champiom bumper so will be hoping he’s a good jumper as the engine is clearly top notch.
Iv seen quite a bit of talk for horses like An Tobar (de bromhead) and jet powered (henderson). I’m also very much looking forward to seeing luccia (henderson) go over hurdles, as nicky said in his stable tour “she could be anything”.
Lots to look forward too
Champ kiely definitely been a surprise for the mullins team, will goto the royal bond where if he wins will be early fav for the supreme once FV target becomes more clear, his easy win over brazil is strong enough form at this stage, i got him added in after galway at a nice price
“Yes, I think so. In recent years the bumper has been a better guide to the Ballymore”
This makes sense as the bumper is essentially a 2m Flat race.
When horses off the Flat go hurdling my ballpark “how far will they they stay?” guide, depending on racing style and his well they settle, is: 1m4f = 2m hurdles, 2m = 2m4f hurdles, 2m2f plus = 3m hurdles.
You get exceptions, and I’ve known 6f hold-up horses get an easy 2m over timber, whereas a front-running Flat miler hasn’t got home over hurdles, but as a rule of thumb it tends to work overall.
In NH, many bumpers are run at a farcical crawl until 4f out, they aren’t true 2m races, but the Festival Bumper is always run at a good clip, so you’d expect any winner of it to get the Ballymore trip over hurdles.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"The only antepost interest I have in the novice hurdles is American Mike at 10/1 in the Ballymore. Elliott usually targets his best at this race.
5/2 about Facile Vega, i agree is horrific. From just the bumper itself, fitness allowing, WPM has a lot of juggling to do, and even that alone makes the price bad. Nevermind the fact that Ricci has his biggest team of novices, and JP etc. have had many purchases head to Closutton.
7/1 best price about American Mike also stinks in my opinion. Barring him looking incredibly slow, he’ll probably run here yes, but aside from the fact that Gordie has him as his bumper “chosen” one i don’t see what entitles him to be 7/1? He had an experience edge on WPM’s 3rd and 4th in the bumper and there’ll be plenty of others to show their cards this season than just the bumper form.
The issue we have is getting the right horses against these. Jet Powered has been talked about a fair bit and has a nice pedigree. He’s with the right man in the UK for the supreme, maybe just covering him would be an option. He wins his maiden and probably wins another egg n spoon race and he’s Englands great hope vs WPM.
The rest i’ll sit back and enjoy regarding the novice hurdles……for now.
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Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I wouldn’t touch these contests in October with your money, dear reader.
The ante-post book margins are a thousand percent and they’ve all got options every day of the Festival and before and after it too.
“Just say ‘no’ to an autumn ‘Fez Folio,’ kids!”
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Book percentages are pointless for cheltenham novices ap, aslong as your not backing 5/2 shots at this stage, which rarely anyone does In october, theres 0 liquidity in the markets and im often betting enough to move them myself this far out, theres plenty of more than generous prices, as i did with champ kiely, Could give you 100 examples of why its advantageous, that being one of them
Theres countless people on this forum every season who have sift through the bad prices and sniff out the 66/1- 100/1 winners this far in advance
Your betting the guineas/derby AP @14/1
in september with less information at worse margins than someone betting this seasons supremeI’ve followed the hype and backed Jet Powered for the Supreme at enhanced odds of 27 a few months ago.
Taken a swing on Kalanisi Star for both the Ballymore and AB @50s. Won the now ‘celebrated’ bumper won by Yorkhill and Bob, with the second, Monbeg Park (beaten 16 lengths), winning next time out and was a respectable third at the Punchestown festival, finishing ahead of James’s Gate.
For the Mares Novice hurdle, Poetic Music is a fair price @33s. 6th in the bumper as a four year-old and already a listed bumper winner at the track.
There are horses like Ittack Blue ( now with Skelton ) who could be anything so these novice hurdle markets can change markedly during early winter and I like spotting something which has potentially been shortened up for the wrong race
Impose Toi has joined Nicky Henderson from the French provinces and looked quite tidy winning his bumper – the video is available online
Nicky wasn’t giving much away in his Unibet interview. Every horse mentioned is ‘nice’ but he couldn’t be prompted to name a standout. Between Waters probably got the most interesting comments. She’s 20s for the Mares Novice.
He did, surprisingly, mention how this time last year they had Firestep pencilled in as the Supreme winner. I had him in my ‘TRF 10 to follow’ list therefore, naturally, he never made the racecourse. He must be a good one for him to call him the Supreme winner. He stopped short of saying he’d win it this year however!
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