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Ordinarily would be looking for a young pretender to make the jump but I can’t really see an obvious one.
Midnight Chase is surely not good enough.
Diamond Harry has to improve to beat Denman at level weights.
Long Run will have questions in terms of course and going if it’s good.
Pandorama is unlikely to get his ground.
Kempes is a possible improver but does have to improve alot.
Imperial Commander has to be considered a worthy favourite.
Kauto looks on the downgrade to me.
Denman’s run in the Hennessy is still the best 3m+ run that I’ve seen this season. Provided soft is in the going description he has to be first 3.
Neptune C is honest but still has to prove he is as good as when third to Denman.
My current idea of the first 3 is Denman, Imperial Commander and Kempes.
think Pandorama could improve for the ground. By Fleminsfirth I see no reason why not it’s not like it’ll be fast just g/s hopefully nice safe racing ground. Same sire as Tidal Bay and Imperial Commander. Like many Irish horses who come across and improve for the ground I think he could be another. Hope Midnight Chase runs a big race and also the mighty Denman. Watch China Rock at a big price too, pretty sure he’ll beat Kempes home and 66/1 so nice e/w wager. Be lucky
Denman ran a cracking race last year but was beaten home by IC seemingly at his peak. Kauto hasnt ran an impressive race since last years KG and I can’t excuse so many sub par efforts. Personally I don’t see how riverside boosts this years king George form by going on to win over 21/2 miles when he has only competed once over 3m. Nacarat is a more useful guide to the form in his effort in the racing post chase. Long run clearly has a leading chance but plenty of question marks remain about his liking for the track and I’m dubious as to how strong the KG form really is when beating a 21/2 miler and a below par downgrading kauto. Imperial commander has it all to do to win back to back gold cups at the age of 10 and I haven’t seen enough of him this year to warrant 4/1.
For the reasons stated I think it’s well worth looking outside the first 4 in the betting for the winner. Midnight chase hadn’t been seen against the caliber of horses he is going to meet on March 18th but has to be considered. Panorama brings form strong enough to represent a leading chance provided there’s cut and Kempes seems to have the ability to step up again on better ground. Shame Weird Al hasn’t been seen since his hennessy flop as he was my pick pre season for the Cheltenham showpiece. Burton port and weapons amnesty would have been a threat and it’s a great shame both miss this years event. Diamond Harry did travel marvellously in the Hennessey but that’s a lot easier to do with 10st on your back and that form isn’t good enough here especially with seriously lacklustre noises coming from his stable. Has also flopped at Cheltenham before.I would consider the main threats this year to come from Kempes and Pandorama but wouldn’t rule out course specialist Weird Al if he shows up.
One last thing, this is just the kind of race that Tidal bay may well spring a surprise in and if he consents to travel I have no doubt as to his ability to close out the race. I’ll be keeping him onside…
You may find the following stats interesting!
Posted this on another thread in error.
RACE TRENDS: GOLD CUP
•11 of the last 13 winners had been placed at the festival before
•9 of the last 19 winners were second season chasers
•10 of the last 11 winners had all won a race that season
•The last 10 winners were in the front three in the betting
•10 horses priced 33/1 and bigger have been placed since 1997
•64 of 66 horses beaten in the race before since 1994 have been beaten again. The only exceptions are Kauto Star and a carried-out See More Business
•16 of the last 17 winners were aged between seven and nine
•No horse older than ten has won since 1969
•The last six year old to win was Mill House in 1963
•Only one horse since 1963 (Dawn Run) has won with less than six runs over fencesWell thats interesting. Only one horse left as I see it, and he’ll need a pounding in the market. Not impossible he goes off third favourite though, long way to go! Could MIDNIGHT CHASE really step up to this level?
Personally I think stats are useless and invariably suggest that the best horse usually wins, through different retro fitted criteria. ie First 3 in the betting, won a race that season, not too old or too young, not well beaten every time he contests a festival race, not less than 6 chase starts = all equate to look for a good horse with proven form.
I agree that stats can be manipulted and are not a definitive guide to an outcome but once studied they can often rule out the least likely.
I have found in the past that Chelt is full of upsets on the day and I am sticking to my original pick of Midnight Chase (19/1 EW Antepost 3 weeks ago BF). Fair form in the book and a decent profile.
Im leaning towards Midnight Chase as there have been some polished performances and stays all day. Won comfortably in a competitive event at chelt with plenty at hand – a friend had him in that race and he made an impression on me. Won with something in hand and deserves to take his chance.
Thought he might be a gold cup horse after that and had gone under my radar up until that point.
I would have him and IC as the two to watch
Albertas Run
is likely to go for the Gold Cup according to Jonjo. Trevor Hemmings wants it to happen. I can’t believe it.
That’s madness! thought he had pretty good chance of retaining Ryan air crown(if he turned up sound)..why they are doing this route god only knows…then again maybe even he doesn’t, prob had him antepost for Ryan air….Don’t tear up your ryanair tickets just yet. I believe these noises were made last year too before he ended up in the Ryan. Wanting to win a gold cup doesn’t make it happen!
Albertas Run
is likely to go for the Gold Cup according to Jonjo. Trevor Hemmings wants it to happen. I can’t believe it.
The market hasn’t reacted to it as yet.
O’Neill is a punter’s nightmare. It is clearly tantamount to insanity backing any of his horses ante-post for the Festival. You almost get the impression he delights in messing punters around. The horse put up his most impressive performance when winning the Ryanair last season and should attempt a repeat. Anything else would be ridiculous.
Clearly an owner can run a horse wherever he likes but the horse has not won over the distance for three years when he took a dire renewal of the Sun Alliance. He will be 50/1+ for the Gold Cup and has absolutely no chance. The only beneficiaries of this decision will be the bookmakers.
What do you want Mr Hemmings a chance to win another Grade 1 or an also ran in the Gold Cup? More importantly what do you think is best for the horse?
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hi folks – my idea of the cheltenham gold cup winner this year will be a newcomer to this race . the horse in question has an incredible turn of foot can carry big weights and to me is a racing certainty, all this horse has to do is just turn up for the race and stand up? i also think it may be the best horse we have seen so far after the horse slammed denman at newbury? the weight the horse carried shouldnot be taken into account as it would of won carrying top weight- and the winner is – diamond harry
Diamond Harry ruled out of Cheltenham, he has done a suspensory ligament.
Nick Williams said that the horse ‘wasn’t right’, and from what i have read, he has had this opinion for sometime.
Now, i dont mean to be harsh, but a suspensory ligament injury in a horse, should be very easy to see, well, not the actual diagnosis, but the fact that something wasn’t right, just other than the horse doesn’t ‘seem himself’.
I find that quite difficult to believe, that it has only just been noticed that the horse has been lame and therefore further medical help has been utilised.
I would have thought there would have been quite a lot of heat in the area, and a possible lump where the injury has been sustained, and i imagine, the horse would have been lame on more than 1 occasion.
Seems a strange situation.
Best of luck to the horse and i hope he recovers fully and in the shortest time possible.
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