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I agree. I think the value is in Long Run. One doubt though is whether, like Kauto, he prefers going on flat right handed courses.
That’s a fairly important doubt for a horse that is less than 10/1. Therefore he plainly cannot be value.
There are doubts about all the main contenders for the Gold Cup, but Long Run is the only one with youth on his side so I think 7 or 8-1 on Long Run is good value.
Personally I’d rather take 14/1 on Pandorama than 7/1 about Long Run every day of the week.
- Total Posts 17716
Personally I’d rather take 14/1 on Pandorama than 7/1 about Long Run every day of the week.
I think people are getting carried away with his victory in the Lexus; every man and his dog had backed him and he was almost gifted it. The likes of Money Trix and Glencove Marina aren’t within 20lb of challenging in a Gold Cup, and Kempes and Joncol were both ridden as though the race was an insurance policy for a later target.
I know Noel Meade has always thought the world of him, but I can’t entertain him as a potential champion stayer.
Imo he hosed up in the Lexus. If Carberry had kicked sooner he would have only won by further. He jumps, travels and stays. Twice the price of Long Run, who has serious jumping problems, doubts about whether he’ll say, and doubts about his ability around the track.
In a match bet I’d be all over Pandorama.
Kempes and Joncol were both ridden as though the race was an insurance policy for a later target.
Why would Joncol have been ridden as though the race was an insurance policy for a later target?
He’s got two races a year that are likely to be run to suit him – the Lexus and the Hennessy. Pandorama will beat him again in a fortnight’s time.
- Total Posts 17716
Kempes and Joncol were both ridden as though the race was an insurance policy for a later target.
Why would Joncol have been ridden as though the race was an insurance policy for a later target?
He’s got two races a year that are likely to be run to suit him – the Lexus and the Hennessy. Pandorama will beat him again in a fortnight’s time.
Because he’d had an interrupted preparation, wasn’t 100% fit and was given the sort of ride that suggested the Hennessy was the ultimate aim; the Lexus appeared to be very much a case of ‘if we win, we win’.
Kempes and Joncol were both ridden as though the race was an insurance policy for a later target.
Why would Joncol have been ridden as though the race was an insurance policy for a later target?
He’s got two races a year that are likely to be run to suit him – the Lexus and the Hennessy. Pandorama will beat him again in a fortnight’s time.
Because he’d had an interrupted preparation, wasn’t 100% fit and was given the sort of ride that suggested the Hennessy was the ultimate aim; the Lexus appeared to be very much a case of ‘if we win, we win’.
Plenty of the same comments would apply to Pandorama also. His ‘preparation’ was far from ideal.
Pandorama is a Gold Cup horse. No question. Take the e.w odds. It’s a tremendous offer. He’s the real deal. The Commander will obviously be very tough to beat. The Commander 4/1, Pandorama 16/1, Back them both, you can’t go wrong.
- Total Posts 17716
Pandorama is a Gold Cup horse. No question. Take the e.w odds. It’s a tremendous offer. He’s the real deal. The Commander will obviously be very tough to beat. The Commander 4/1, Pandorama 16/1, Back them both, you can’t go wrong.
You can if neither win.
Diamond Harry laughed at Denman in the Hennessy and, judging by the manner of his success, I find it hard to see how Denman can possibly reverse that form, even allowing for a big pull at the weights. Should connections retire ‘The Tank’?
Denman will reverse the form with Diamond Harry at Cheltenham, if Paul Nicholls gets him there in the same fitness he had him in for the Hennessy.
COPY AND PASTED FROM ‘NO RETIREMENT FOR KAUTO’ THREAD
I highlighted Diamond Harry’s poor disappointing Festival record as a negative in another thread, but the more I look at his record, the more I fancy his chances.
One could argue that he was far from disappointing in the Ballymore Properties when just over 5L behind Mikael D’Haguenet. I forgot just what good horses he had behind him that day – China Rock, Knockara Beau, The Nightingale and Mad Max.
He went into that race six weeks after a course and distance success. His disappointing effort on the RSA can be attributed to the ground and that he went into the race a mere four weeks after his Newbury success.
It’s clear now that he is best when fresh and is reportedly ‘bouncing’ at home.
Many have cited that he is better on a flat track, but his form figures at Cheltenham, prior to his excusable defeat in the RSA, reads 113.
What impressed me in the Hennessy was his ability to track a strong pace, jump well and still have plenty left to win with a bit in hand. He was certainly dossing in front, but when Burton Port came at him again on the run-in, he pulled out a bit more.
An improving second season chaser with a Hennessy to his name. An 8YO with a proven record around the undulations of Prestbury Park. A stong traveller who stays well. An ideal profile, in my opinion.
If he jumps as well in the Gold Cup as he did in the Hennessy and the ground comes up on the soft side of good, he’ll take a lot of beating.
If he jumps as well in the Gold Cup as he did in the Hennessy and the ground comes up on the soft side of good, he’ll take a lot of beating.
He was outjumped by Denman on one occasion and if that happens in the Gold Cup he won’t be getting back on the bridle in a hurry.
I can see only three possible winners of the Gold Cup.
Long Run: This horse has already won the best part of £1 Million in prize money and he has only just turned 6. Had the King George not been delayed by a few weeks he would have been the first 5 year old winner in 60 years. He also won a grade 1 chase in the UK as four year old, I cannot remember any other in my lifetime. This horse is the real deal, he has a similar engine to Big Bucks but jumps better, when was the last time a 12 length King George winner quoted at 7/1 for the Gold Cup?
Diamond Harry: When fresh this horse is awesome, his style of win in the Hennessy was very similar to his demolition of Burton Port at Haydock. His astute trainer has finally realised that fresh is best.
Imperial Commander. The reigning champ, simply loves it at Cheltenham, another who runs best fresh. Should still be capable of running to the same level of form as last year judged on his Haydock performance. He is a 10 year old so further improvement is unlikely.
Of the rest Pandorama needs a bog to have any chance.
Kauto and Denman – been there done it before but 11 year olds win once in a blue moon and only if the opposition is not top drawer.
Joncol: His Gold Cup is on Saturday, a massive horse run sparingly his best chance of making the frame will be next year.
I had a ticket on Pandorama and am glad to hear he is back working. Diamond Harry looked an impressive winner. It looks like the changing of the guard for me and I include Imperial Commander in my list of unlikely winners
Hi all – just to throw in my two pence worth:
I just don’t think its as competitive as it looks on paper or the bookies lists.I think if Imperial Commander, a year younger than Kauto or denman, runs anywhere near last years mark he’ll be extremely hard to beat.
Sure, denman will run his race but even at his best i dont think hes quite as good as IC at cheltenham and he’s a year older. Denman will come down the hill as impressively as ever but I can’t believe 1 or 2 won’t be going past him on the way up. KS has been the best horse ive ever seen but could easily be on the downgrade now and Paul Nicholls is not slow in finding excuses.
So the biggest challengers may well lie in long Run and Diamond Harry. Long run is clearly best suited to a track like Kempton – Can he really beat IC at Cheltenham? I think you’d have to be banking on IC running below his best.
DH was disappointing at Cheltenham previously and although having a long break may help, 10-1 is hardly value.
Surely IC has more than a 1 in 5 chance of winning this year and if so anything like 4-1 at no runner no bet is great value!Thoughts?
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