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Longs Run’s current handicap mark of 179 would have been good enough to win 17 of the last 20 Cheltenham Gold Cups based on the ratings of the winners at the time of winning. Not bad eh for a horse who is still only 5.
hi shabby – if you look at kempes form and pandorama then there isnt much between the two of them- kempes scored over the same track and distance on the same ground in a bit better time? they both have cracking chances in the gold cup.
Pandorama had Kempes beaten when the latter fell at Christmas.
Take a look again at Pandorama in the last 200 yards of the Lexus, he was full of run still, only Long Run in the KG has gone through the line with such verve in any of the big staying races this year.
Also, Pandorama is bred to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup and Kempes is bred to win a Guineas.Longs Run’s current handicap mark of 179 would have been good enough to win 17 of the last 20 Cheltenham Gold Cups based on the ratings of the winners at the time of winning. Not bad eh for a horse who is still only 5.
Madison du Berlais’ 23 length beating of Denman and 48 length beating of Albertas Run in the Levy Board chase in 2009 for example should have been good enough to win the following Gold Cup if you think the form of the 2 courses match up. However, he gets to Cheltenham and gets hammered 43 lengths by Kauto Star. The point about the two tracks in question is a very relative one I feel.
Would be interesting to know what rating people would give each Gold Cup entry purely based on all known Cheltenham form and taking into account the current stage of their career?My idea in order of favouritsm is as follows.
Imperial Commander 185
Long Run 165 (feeling generous)
Kauto Star 180
Denman 180
Kempes & Pandorama – (interesting duo)
Midnight Chase 165 (assuming he improves as he has)
Tidal Bay 170 (could anything between 0-190 tho)
Neptune Collonges 171I have to take issue with Bosranic who says Long Run is no Kauto Star.
I can only say that if Long Run simply makes normal improvement then he has every chance to become the first horse since Arkle to achieve a rating of 200 or more.
He will actually still be technically only 5 when he runs in this years Gold Cup (born April 05) and needs to improve 21 pounds which is not unrealistic.
Let’s make some comparisons of what they have both achieved at Long Run’s age when he won the King George at age 5 years 9 months.
OFFICIAL RATINGS: KAUTO STAR `167
LONG RUN 179PRIZE MONEY WON: KAUTO STAR £265,000
LONG RUN £825,000RACES WON: KAUTO STAR: 6
LONG RUN 11GRADE 1 RACES WON: KAUTO STAR 1
LONG RUN 4NUMBER OF RACES BEATEN IN: KAUTO STAR 8
LONG RUN 6WIN TO RUN RATIO: KAUTO STAR 6 FROM 14 = 43%
LONG RUN 11 FROM 17 = 65%NUMBER OF FALLS KAUTO STAR 1
LONG RUN 0So come on Bosranic, justify your remark, I challenge you to tell me of any NH Horse in history who has achieved more at Long Runs current age (5)
A slightly simplistic review, Sea Pigeon, with no relevant in-depth anaylsis
Long Run is arguably the most precocious French import we have ever witnessed – a statement that I have submitted before . The fact that he developed physically, and perhaps mentally, quicker than Kauto Star does not necessarily mean that he will accomplish more than him when time is called on his career.
The evidence presented thus far tells us that Long Run will fail to replicate what has made Kauto Star arguably the most talented chaser to ever grace the turf – versatility.
In recent years, a plethora of good horses have demostrated the ability to maintain a high level of form over a variety of trips, but not since Desert Orchid have we seen a horse capable of beating the creme de la creme over both the minimum distance, three miles and three miles plus.
The difference is that Kauto won the Gold Cup in emphatic fashion twice compared to Desert Orchid, who scrambled up the hill to win it once.
The likes of One Man found the Gold Cup distance a step too far and Master Minded suffered a 37L reversal when stepping up to two miles-four at Aintree after his Champion Chase romp. Horses can go from being superstars to just plain decent when confronted with a mere extra two furlongs.
Rather than look at what Long Run has achieved, let’s focus on what he failed to demonstrate at Cheltenham in the Paddy Power. In the aftermath of his disappointing third, Nicky Henderson implied that he was ‘taken out of his comfort zone’. This was over a trip of two miles-five, carrying 11-01 against handicappers.
At the same stage of his career, Kauto was claiming the first of his two Grade One Tingle Creeks over two miles! The following season – arguably one of the greatest in history – Kauto beat the future Champion Chaser to land his second Tingle Creek before the first of four King Georges, culminating in the Gold Cup. That season he was crowned Champion horse over both two and three miles.
I severely doubt that Long Run has the speed to win a Tingle Creek and he’s got a helluva task trying to maintain the same level of consistency, longevity and, most importantly, versatility as Kauto Star.
Even if he becomes the first 5YO since Mill House in 1963 to win the Gold Cup, it will represent a mere step up the ladder to reach Kauto Star, sitting at the top.
Moscow Flyer was a high class two miler. Best Mate was a high-class three miler / staying chaser, but Kauto Star will be remembered as both.
That’s something even Arkle can’t boast about, let alone Long Run!
Hi Bosranic
You haven’t really answered my question.
Can you name any NH Horse in history who has achieved more than Long Run at the age he is now? Methinks not.
Hi Bosranic
You haven’t really answered my question.
Can you name any NH Horse in history who has achieved more than Long Run at the age he is now? Methinks not.
Master Minded.
Won the Game Spirit on just his third start in this country before slamming reigning champion, Voy Por Ustedes, by 19L in the Queen Mother. He was the youngest winner in the history of the race, subsequently rated 186.
He was a 5YO when he achieved this (well, ‘techinally’ a 4YO, since he wasn’t foaled until 14th April).
The following season he added his first Tingle Creek as a 5YO (beating the Arkle winner, Tidal Bay) before cementing his third Grade One in the Victor Chandler Chase.
At the same stage of his career he was aiming for a double triumph in the two mile showpiece – and he achieved it.
——————————————————————
I would just like to correct an earlier mistake. Long Run would become the first 6YO to win the Gold Cup since Mill House.
Masterminded had been on the deck 3 times and pulled up once and won considerably less prize money at the same age. Nevertheless I would put Masterminded second behind Long Run.
- Total Posts 17716
Backed Imperial Commander (5/1) and Kempes (40/1) each-way. If one of them can’t do it I’d like Denman to win and if any of them make any kind of mistake he’ll be there waiting.
I’m still firmly of the view Long Run needs a flat track and they should’ve targeted the Aintree 3 miler in April and Pandoramas not had the best prep.
I’m not in the slightest bit worried about Kauto Star or Midnight Chase.
Also, Pandorama is bred to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup and Kempes is bred to win a Guineas.
Look, I’m not slagging off Pandorama – I think he’s a damn fine horse, and if we have a Gold Cup Mudbath I’ll put some cash down on him – but I do wish people would quit with the breeding argument.
Just ask that legendary 5f sprinter, Red Rum!
(and before anyone says anything, no, I’m not saying Kempes is like Rummy, but hopefully you can see my argument).
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
I have a suspicion that Carruthers has been laid out for this for a very long time, and wouldn’t be surprised to see him placed – even win.
His maternal uncle, Destriero, was really something, beating Granville Again in the Supreme Novices by 4 lengths and was clear when he hit the last. I believe ‘destrier’ was the name for a Norman war-horse.
He’s been running over much longer distances this year, which might just be a good preparation for a gut-busting blue riband race, like the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Seems to me on what they’ve done on track, Denman is a good price @ 13/2. If I hadn’t already backed Imperial Commander, Denman would be a main bet. 3rd in this season’s Hennessey on form wasn’t far off (if at all) behind the winning performances. So unlike stable companion Kauto Star, has run well this term.
However, Denman is getting older (now 11) and it is possible he’s deterioratad since Newbury. And why operate if he had not shown a deterioration at home?Heard today at a Cheltenham Preview that Paul Nicholls is keen on Denman’s chances. Apparently going very well since his wind op.
Taken some 13/2 (although IC would be the best result for me).I get the feeling from both Nicholls and Walsh on TV "Kauto Star has probably lost some of his speed"; that KS is not going so well at home these days. Therefore probably not capable of the same form.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
As can be seen from his recent form, Kauto Star has lost some of his speed (most older horses do), but doubtless Denman has too.
Forget any ratings that show he ran near to his best in the Hennessy, he was 19l adrift of his previous position, on ground that would have been more in his favour, and against only slightly better horses (at the weights), and while a breathing op may enable him to last longer, it certainly won’t make him any faster.
Without help from soft ground, I’d be surprised if either of them have enough speed to make the first 3.Why are so many punters keen on Denman and Kauto, probably pure sentiment. In terms of ratings it’s undeniably that Kauto is the best 3 miles since Arkle with Denman not far behind. Horses do not improve at Championship level from 10 to 11. I’m not saying they cannot win but their prices are far too short, both should be 10/1 chances.
On official ratings Pandorama and Kempes need to improve at least a stone just to have a chance, they should be 25/1 chances.
Midnight Chase is just a handicapper, a very game one at that but has no chance, should be 50/1.
Tidal Bay won’t win it but depending on his mood he might sneak a place, another 25/1 shot.
Which leaves only 2 horses who have a real chance of winning, Imperial Commander and Long Run and they should be 2/1 shots.
MY BETTING
LONG RUN 2/1
IMPERIAL COMMANDER 2/1
DENMAN 10/1
KAUTO 10/1
PANDORAMA 25/1
KEMPES 25/1
TIDAL BAY 25/1
MIDNIGHT CHASE 50/1I’d love to see Kauto win another Gold Cup but I just can’t have him this time based on his last two runs. I’d never write him off completely but he is really up against now. Same goes for Denman despite his valiant effort in the Hennessey. Of the two greats, I think Denman will fair better and run his usual big race into a place.
Long Run is an interesting one. He hasn’t looked great at Cheltenham in the past but was exceptional at Kempton in the King George. If he brings that level of form to Cheltenham, and can handle the demands of a truly run Gold Cup, he has to be in with a big chance. He’s my tentative pick to win with IC and Denman battling out the places.
On official ratings Pandorama and Kempes need to improve at least a stone just to have a chance, they should be 25/1 chances.
I’ve not been into Racing long enough to know the last horse who won the GC ‘improving’ by such a dramatic amount. Can anyone shed any light on who it was and how often it has happened?
The racing post festival guide lists pre and post RPRs for the last 10 years. The biggest improver was War of Attrition, by 6lbs in 2006.
Why are so many punters keen on Denman and Kauto, probably pure sentiment. In terms of ratings it’s undeniably that Kauto is the best 3 miles since Arkle with Denman not far behind. Horses do not improve at Championship level from 10 to 11. I’m not saying they cannot win but their prices are far too short, both should be 10/1 chances.
On official ratings Pandorama and Kempes need to improve at least a stone just to have a chance, they should be 25/1 chances.
Midnight Chase is just a handicapper, a very game one at that but has no chance, should be 50/1.
Tidal Bay won’t win it but depending on his mood he might sneak a place, another 25/1 shot.
Which leaves only 2 horses who have a real chance of winning, Imperial Commander and Long Run and they should be 2/1 shots.
MY BETTING
LONG RUN 2/1
IMPERIAL COMMANDER 2/1
DENMAN 10/1
KAUTO 10/1
PANDORAMA 25/1
KEMPES 25/1
TIDAL BAY 25/1
MIDNIGHT CHASE 50/1Believe me SP, sentiment does not come in to it. I’ve backed Imperial Commander myself @ 11/2, but I was not impressed with his on course work out. I was against Denman and Kauto Star at the beginning of the season. Most 11 year olds are on the decline at that age. But Denman did run almost as well as he ever has in the Hennessey. Although it is possible or even probable he’s deteriorated since, that is (imo) over-stated in his price.
If all horses ran as well as they have this season, but were of the same age we’d have a market like this:
Denman 9/4, Imperial Commander 7/2, Kauto Star 4/1, Long Run 11/2….
But the ages are different. I would not back Denman at shorter than 11/2. "Probably" 4 months on, is not as good as he was, but only "probably". Surely he has a better than 13% chance, so is good value at 13/2? To think Denman has a true 10/1 (9%) chance, just because he’s 11 years old – taking in to account the third in the Hennessey – is an over-reaction (imo). If Denman runs to that Newbury form, he’ll go very close to winning, if not winning.
There are more question marks about Long Run than any other horse in the race, yet you make him 2/1? Cheltenham form? Jumping ability? Jockey? Going? Trip? Does not seem to me as if you’ve taken in to account any of his negatives, yet slash Denman’s chance because of one minus in his column.
Midnight Chase is / was a handicapper, but so were some of the best Gold Cup winners, Denman, Burrough Hill Lad and Master Oats for example. Of course he has to improve, but that is still possible.
But the game is all about opinions Sea Pigeon. Thumbs Up.
Value Is EverythingA lot of pundits on here seem to think Long Run has a problem jumping at Cheltenham. In the RSA he finished third, however taking into account the following:
-he was still technically only a four year old
– had not had the usual summer break leading up to Cheltenham
– was probable over the top
– he pulled quite hard early on as the pace of the race was slow
It was a very good effort, take a look at the rerun below, I have watched it several times and he only made one real jumping error when he hit the top of the 6th fence and was a bit novicey at 2 others, and was never in any danger of falling. He pulled his way to lead over the second last and was only beaten for 2nd on the line. To say he won’t get the trip is absurd.
Since then he has reportedly grown an inch and in his last race jumped superbly, even if he makes a couple of mistakes at Cheltenham I can’t see that stopping him.
This horse is the real deal and this is probably the last chance anyone will have to back him at decent odds.
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