- This topic has 336 replies, 80 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 8 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I said prior to the King George that Kauto Star had improved to win the Gold Cup in such an impressive fashion, so why shouldn’t he countinue on a upward curve during this, the prime of his career?
A solid end-to-end gallop normally sorts them out and yesterday was no exception. The best horse in the race had his ideal conditions with the race run to suit. Kauto Star has demonstrated top class form over two miles during his career, so it’s no surprising that he was the one horse in the field who thrived off that pace. Tartak, who ran a solid race in last seasons Arkle, travelled as well as anything, too.
Still can’t understand why some still question the quality of the field. Three of the first six home, Kauto Star (1st), Imperial Commander (5th), Albertas Run (6th) ran in the race last year, finishing 1st, 2nd and 6th, respectively.
Voy Por Ustedes (173), Briareus (150) and Air Force One (160) filled the remaining top six spots last year, while Madison Du Berlais (169), Barbers Shop (156) and Nacarat (162) likewise this time around.
- Total Posts 17716
What price the two best horses of all time (by some margin too according to Timeform) where in the same stable at the same time?
IMVHO and I really mean this. Over 3 miles round Kempton Flying Bolt would not have beaten Kauto Star in a month of Sundays.
Ratings have changed dramatically and yes Arkle was a phenominal horse but he never won a Gold Cup,he never won 4 King Georges and his claim to fame was winning a QMCC then getting outclassed over hurdles by Salmon Spray the next day. When he beat Height O’Fashion giving him a simialr weight to what Arkle had done his rating went through the roof.
The difference is Arkle was always a 212 horse. Time and time again he defied logic and won 2 out of 3 of his Gold Cups as if he was Istabraq running in a seller at Catterick.
Imagine Denman and do 2 things. Add springs to his heels that he can jump, higher faster and getaway from his fences like a greyhound out the traps. Then take out Denman’s engine with 2 to jump and replace it with Master Minded’s ……That was Arkle and Flyingbolt s good as he was wasn’t in the same league……..he reached a high rating but never maintained it like Arkle did.
My point is Flyingbolt was in the right place in the right form at the right time. Put him in a Hennessy with 12st10lbs and everything else on 10st and he’d beat them. Put him in the King George with Kauto and Arkle he wouldn’t see the way he went.
Taking past time into consideration in my mind Arkle would average round about 202 and Kauto 192 if a point is a Lb. I say average because round Cheltenham whether Arkle carrying 12 stone or 11 stone he probably wouldn’t notice the difference. That course suited him best because of the gradual wind up to top gear and once he got going Kauto would like any other horse be lefts struggling up the hill while to Arkle he treated it like a downhill ski slope.
My personal ratings go Arkle 202 Kauto Star 192p behind them Dester Orchid Captain Christie Flying Bolt and Pendil but in no particular order.
Comparing Kauto to what’s around these days is simple…..he’s different class to them all and should be and is rated accordingly……….do learn to live with it, you’ll enjoy it more.
- Total Posts 17716
Has everyone forgotten the Pat Taaffe trained Captain Christy, the horse who not only thrashed Bula by 30 lengths in the 1975 King George, but also smashed the then course record into the bargain.
A year earlier he had defeated the dual King George winner, Pendil, by eight lengths in the same race.
I would rate Captain Christie way up there but I don’t get your point mate
Pendil hardly raised a gallop that season, if my memory serves me well. It was like 3 years after he was beaten by The Dickler in the Gold Cup.
Bula who I regard as the best hurdler of my lifetime wasn’t anywhere near as good over fences.
But I agree he was better than Denman
- Total Posts 17716
Grassy
I don’t doubt it was a very strong pace, and I don’t doubt that Kauto Star was the clear beneficiary. However, for the very same reason I doubt that any of the next 3 home ran anywhere near what they are individually capable of.
Madison Du Berlais was clearly outpaced from a long way out and never featured (Much as he hadn’t in the 09 Gold Cup, when really in the form of his life) until the other horses weakened. All of his form (imo), shows he needs further/softer to be seen at his best, and he plainly ran below it on Saturday.
Barbers Shop and Nacarat clearly didn’t stay – again, because of the strong pace – and just as clearly didn’t run to their best because of it. The rest were beaten too far or too far out to draw any meaningful conclusion.
We can hypothesise till the cows come home, but there’s little doubt in my mind that the winning distance owed more to circumstances than it did to actual superiority, and even less that KS will never again get near the figure he has supposedly improved to, (None of which detracts from his being the best horse for a very long time, of course).My point being, Fist, that Captain Christy put up a similarly outstanding performance round Kempton in ’75 as Kauto Star did in 2009 and as Arkle did in ’65.
In 74 when he beat Pendil, Dick Pitman said that he just could not go with the pace that Captain Christy set. If you recall, Captain Christy could either jump ok or ploughed through his fences. He was a bit of a nutcase. Bit like yourself old boy.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Grassy
I don’t doubt it was a very strong pace, and I don’t doubt that Kauto Star was the clear beneficiary. However, for the very same reason I doubt that any of the next 3 home ran anywhere near what they are individually capable of.
Madison Du Berlais was clearly outpaced from a long way out and never featured (Much as he hadn’t in the 09 Gold Cup, when really in the form of his life) until the other horses weakened. All of his form (imo), shows he needs further/softer to be seen at his best, and he plainly ran below it on Saturday.
Barbers Shop and Nacarat clearly didn’t stay – again, because of the strong pace – and just as clearly didn’t run to their best because of it. The rest were beaten too far or too far out to draw any meaningful conclusion.
We can hypothesise till the cows come home, but there’s little doubt in my mind that the winning distance owed more to circumstances than it did to actual superiority, and even less that KS will never again get near the figure he has supposedly improved to, (None of which detracts from his being the best horse for a very long time, of course).That’s fair enough, reet. The main reason why we frequent places like TRF is because we get to debate the intricacies of each performance.
It does, however, rather beg the question: "Exactly what rate would you give Kauto Star?"
For my money, you either rate the performance lower than his previous high-water mark (in which case you have a very difficult argument to prove), you rate it higher, and accept that he has – however unlikely – improved……or you cop-out and rate it the same.
If you rate it higher, then you are undermining your own theory. Any other position is simply not credible, imho.
- Total Posts 17716
Grassy
Just my opinion, but there are only 2 basic reasons for a horse to improve: physical (including technique) or mental, anything other being strictly down to circumstances.
While his jumping may have improved slightly in that he no longer belts the odd one, he has always been a good jumper and it has never, (pre-December 08 apart, when there was obviously something wrong with him) cost him anything like the 18lbs the OH has seen fit to raise him for his last 2 races.
Circumstances then (imo) explain his Saturday performance (exactly as they did for his last Gold Cup win), and while he’s ostensibly a much better horse, I doubt he is logically.
Incidentally, I don’t rate horses generally, certainly not to the nearest pound, as there are too many vagaries for such fine tolerances to be useful as a betting tool, but I do query them when they appear wrong enough to identify. No fudge or cop-out; he might have improved a few pounds for not taking the odd fence with him – but that’s all.Going to have an ew on What a Friend at 20’s. Recent races have reminded me that someone on another forum said a while ago that their brother rode him out and said he was the best horse he’d ever sat on. I know everyone tends to say things like that, and, until today I tended to dismiss it. Worth backing for a place I think at that price.
I am sure there will be a without the big two market come March. Or I hope there will be. I’d be surprised if What A Friend went to Cheltenham. He has flopped there twice now and think he’ll go to Liverpool and/or Punchestown. Carruthers might be one who can run a big race in the Gold Cup. For a long range each way (without big two) punt I’d say Roll Along. Has run in awful ground jumping poorly at Carlisle and Newbury today. Has previous festival form and likes good ground. Early days though.
The last place I’d be going with Carruthers is the Gold Cup. He will undoubtedly be pressurised for the lead and look at how that worked out for him last year. It would mean an unnecessary hard race for the horse imo.
The last place I’d be going with Carruthers is the Gold Cup. He will undoubtedly be pressurised for the lead and look at how that worked out for him last year. It would mean an unnecessary hard race for the horse imo.
I dont think the horse has to lead though. If they ride him like a good horse, maybe handy without pushing on too much (he wasn’t ridden too forcefully today) then he deserves a crack at it. We need some horse to have a crack at Kauto and Denman!
Reet
Tom Segals point today in the weekender explains why, for me, the beaten horses didnt "run to form". Its the reason why i never back each way in such contests. Great horses can simply run others out of it and force mistakes. The slight trouble with ratings is that its almost a case of treating each runner as an isolated individual rather than appreciating the effect of running against a horse which exposes weaknesses
From the Racing Post:-
"McCoy was also full of admiration for Kauto Star’s William Hill King George VI Chase win, describing it as "the best I’ve seen from a chaser", and reckons the Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup is a straight match between him and his Paul Nicholls-trained stablemate Denman.
He added: "There are definitely only two runners, and brilliant though Denman’s Hennessy performance was, he will need Cheltenham to be pretty testing to win the Gold Cup."
Cheers AP!
- Total Posts 17716
Clivex
I’d broadly concur with TS’s rationale, though (imo) it doesn’t have to be a ‘great’ horse – just a better one, or even just a better pace.Re ratings and their limitations:
Of the 3 principals behind KS in Saturday’s race, I’d much rather bet the 4th horse next time out (in similar circumstances) than either of the other 2, because to my eyes he ran a better race, but I’ve yet to see a rating that would express it that way.The last place I’d be going with Carruthers is the Gold Cup. He will undoubtedly be pressurised for the lead and look at how that worked out for him last year. It would mean an unnecessary hard race for the horse imo.
I saw your post in the Hennessey thread and it seems you’r a fan of the beast like me
If heavy ground were a guarantee in March, I couldn’t possibly back against him, although it wouldn’t be a mortgage job by any means.
I’ve never seen a horse relish desperate conditions as much as Carruthers. He’s slaughtered everything (and nothing, some might argue) whenever he’s raced in these conditions and won with anything you like in hand; it’s almost freakish to see him sprinting through the muck at the end of three miles.
He’d have absolutely murdered them off 149 in the Welsh National and at a decent price too, I’d of thought.
I too thought he may favour a small field and a lead to be at his best, but it seems that conditions are more important than anything else with him. He doesn’t seem to mind racing just in behind or along side of runners, just as long as he’s allowed to open up in the latter stages. He could still be a work in progress with regards to getting to the bottom of him, though, and it’s a bit of a shame that he needs such conditions to be at his very best.
I wouldn’t like to see him line up at Cheltenham on anything other than very soft, which means he wont be going, though I’m sure connections will be keeping a close eye on the weather forecasts in the weeks leading up to the day. I will too.
Yes I really like the horse.
He’s been solidly beaten on his last two visits to Prestbury Park and I would like to see him aimed at something like the Guiness Gold Cup, where there’d be a much better chance he’ll get the ground he loves.
Re ratings and their limitations:
Of the 3 principals behind KS in Saturday’s race, I’d much rather bet the 4th horse next time out (in similar circumstances) than either of the other 2, because to my eyes he ran a better race, but I’ve yet to see a rating that would express it that way.Totally agree.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.