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I see the point you are trying to make Himself, but it was obvious Kauto wasn’t on song well before Denman took over imo.
This debate will roll on and on but something i heard probably a good couple of years ago now was that Kauto or any other horse from Ditcheat wont go by past Denman because quite simply he’s the boss.
I took this with a pinch of salt at the time and probably still should but looking back at a couple of races in particular, the 2009 Gold cup and this years Hennessey, I’m seeing something in that.
In last years Gold Cup, as soon as Denman pulled alongside Kauto, Ruby quite visably tugs his head away as if he doesnt want an eyeballing. He does this a few times.
In the recent Hennessey, I might be on my own but thought WAF was all over the tank. Although, as soon as WAF ranges up to take the lead, not just once but twice, he pulls away running all over the place and throws in the towel.
Clive Smith knows Denmans mind better than anyone and was the man to inform Nicholls he’s back by the look in his eye. Wasnt even bothered about his heart or his fitness (he’s over the heart troubles and fitness will come)
In conclusion, what people might be failing to realise in the "Was Kauto 100% in the 2008 GC" debate is, perhaps it didnt really matter. Maybe the only factor is that if Denman is on top form, the other Nicholls horses will have to take the minor prizes.
Anyway, with Denman lumping round top weight to win his second Hennessey and Kauto claiming his fourth King George in a fashion I’ve certainly never seen, the main thing is to keep them both sound at least until this years Gold Cup then all the bullsh*t (including a very healthy dollop of my own) can be washed away in preparation for the next pile.
I’m not convinced, Andrew.
Horses base their social hierarchy on being either dominant or submissive. The reason we have been able to establish a relationaship with them is by the understanding that we are the dominant party.
If the man on top tells Kauto to put his head in front, that is who he will listen to.
Gold Cup jockeys are already being discussed, with AP mooted as taking the ride on Denman.
Which makes Kauto an absolute shoo-in !
Gold Cup jockeys are already being discussed, with AP mooted as taking the ride on Denman.
Which makes Kauto an absolute shoo-in !
Yeh,yeh same as last year when McCoy was backed from 5/2 into 2/7,some of us stayed loyal to Sam Thomas and were rewarded at 2/1!
From The Racing Post:
Denman’s joint-owner Harry Findlay agreed that Kauto Star had been exceptional on Saturday, but said: "I still think Denman will win in March, but before the King George I thought we were a raging good thing, now it’s become the greatest battle of all time.
"I think more things are in our favour in the Gold Cup and I’ve always believed that we could beat Kauto at Cheltenham even though Kauto might be the better horse."
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From The Racing Post:
Denman’s joint-owner Harry Findlay agreed that Kauto Star had been exceptional on Saturday, but said: "I still think Denman will win in March, but before the King George I thought we were a raging good thing, now it’s become the greatest battle of all time.
"I think more things are in our favour in the Gold Cup and I’ve always believed that we could beat Kauto at Cheltenham even though Kauto might be the better horse."
From the same story:
"Denman now has to find something special in the Gold Cup. I know Denman won a Hennessy off 174, but what would Kauto have done in the same race off the same mark?"
PAUL NICHOLLSI agree with the picture…
Kauto Star: can beat Denman in and out of their Ditcheat field
I’m a bit worried Kauto might get distracted by turning his head backwards to see if he can see box-neighbour Denman.
Interesting to read that Phil Smith, official BHA handicapper, has given Kauto Star a mark of 195 – four more than Timeform.
He also intends to make an official comparison between Kauto Star and Arkle, with the results published next May. I’m going to approach it with an open mind, said Smith.
Once Mr Smith has scoured all the form and crunched all the numbers, I still expect Arkle to come out on top.
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From The Racing Post:
Denman’s joint-owner Harry Findlay agreed that Kauto Star had been exceptional on Saturday, but said: "I still think Denman will win in March, but before the King George I thought we were a raging good thing, now it’s become the greatest battle of all time.
"I think more things are in our favour in the Gold Cup and I’ve always believed that we could beat Kauto at Cheltenham even though Kauto might be the better horse."
As a devout Kauto fan I’ve always believed that Kauto is a better horse than Denman – I think his greater achievements and versatility prove that.
However, I do agree with Harry Findlay that more things are in Denman’s favour when it comes to the Gold Cup. I think the Tank is more suited to the race/conditions than Kauto which makes him even more of a threat given his undoubted class.
Roll on the 2010 GC – if they both turn up fit and well we are in for a hell of a race.
- Total Posts 17716
Interesting to read that Phil Smith, official BHA handicapper, has given Kauto Star a mark of 195 – four more than Timeform.
That’s just plain daft, imo.
For a horse knocking on 10 years old to find 9lbs improvement in his 23rd chase defies common logic, and I’m amazed anyone should think so, let alone a supposed professional.- Total Posts 17716
Great horses always defy logic. How on earth could Arkle give Mill House so much weight and knock 16 seconds off the track at racord at a top course like Sandown. If you had told anyone at the time he was going to do that at the time they would have locked you up, white jacket and all.
Take a close look at what Kauto has done here. It’s something those who think Denman is going to take Kauto of his feet in the Gold Cup should think about.
Sam Thomas has gone into the King George with one thing on his mind; Run the life out of Kauto Star.
He set such a strong pace on Nacarat that with 7 fences still to jump had every jockey in the race in the drive position and in serious trouble except Tartak and Ruby on Kauto Star.
6 Fences out Tartak made an error and colapsed in a heap with Nacarat maintaining the gallop right up until turning from home.
Despite the relentless gallop set by Nacarat Kauto is barely out of 3rd gear at any point in the race and just cruises past him to win by a distance.
The field includes winners of the RSA, 2 winners of the Ryanair, The Hennessy Gold Cup, plus 2 winners of the Peterbourgh and the Charlie Hall. These are good horses in their own right yet some haven’t even got to the last by the time Kauto has crossed the line.
This was without doubt the best performance ever seen round Kempton since Arkle won the same race in the 60’s. Kauto Star has beat a field of good horse further than Desert Orchid did with one huge differnece; Kauto did it in a common canter and deserves every ounce of his new rating if not more.
Has everyone forgotten the Pat Taaffe trained Captain Christy, the horse who not only thrashed Bula by 30 lengths in the 1975 King George, but also smashed the then course record into the bargain.
A year earlier he had defeated the dual King George winner, Pendil, by eight lengths in the same race.
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What price the two best horses of all time (by some margin too according to Timeform) where in the same stable at the same time?
Interesting to read that Phil Smith, official BHA handicapper, has given Kauto Star a mark of 195 – four more than Timeform.
That’s just plain daft, imo.
For a horse knocking on 10 years old to find 9lbs improvement in his 23rd chase defies common logic, and I’m amazed anyone should think so, let alone a supposed professional.I know what you mean, reet, but I don’t think it impossible that Kauto has run to his highest ever rating here. Like Fist says, great horses can defy logic, and elements of Kauto Star’s profile would also point to the horse probably having his 100% ideal race conditions at Kempton. He has tended to improve his form throughout each of the last two or three seasons, and it’s my belief that he has become a much stronger stayer with age than people give him credit for.
Combine his having a run under his belt, with his favourite track, with the kind of pace that was going to reward stamina and fluency, and all the elements are in place for Kauto to put a big rating.
I’m usually fairly cautious when producing a rating, but I’m finding it impossible not to push Kauto Star’s performance upwards. Madison Du Berlais, Barbers Shop and Nacarat all give the King George a reasonably solid feel, and I reckon Kauto has run to 192 – or 7lbs higher than he did in last season’s Gold Cup.
Sometimes seeing is believing.
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Grassy
I don’t have a problem with it being Kauto Star’s best ever race, or it being facilitated by his optimum conditions; I do have a problem with his suddenly finding 9lbs after 4 years and 20 races (Including 15 wins) at the very top level, and I think you’d be pushed to find its equal – at any time, under any code and in any country.
Super horse he undoubtedly is; improving at the rate the OH suggests, outrageous. Do you really believe that his recent victory – albeit it by 36l – is 18lbs better form than last year’s, when he beat a better field comprehensively? The OH obviously does.Interesting to read that Phil Smith, official BHA handicapper, has given Kauto Star a mark of 195 – four more than Timeform.
Which presumably puts Barbers Shop up to the late 160s which is a tad excessive. Timeform more accuarate for me.
Grassy
I don’t have a problem with it being Kauto Star’s best ever race, or it being facilitated by his optimum conditions; I do have a problem with his suddenly finding 9lbs after 4 years and 20 races (Including 15 wins) at the very top level, and I think you’d be pushed to find its equal – at any time, under any code and in any country.
Super horse he undoubtedly is; improving at the rate the OH suggests, outrageous. Do you really believe that his recent victory – albeit it by 36l – is 18lbs better form than last year’s, when he beat a better field comprehensively? The OH obviously does.Big winning margins are, I’ll grant you, generally for treating with a pinch of salt, but I think in this case, it could lead to some masking of the authority of the performance.
Take Kauto Star out of the race, and we have a King George run at a very sound gallop, on perfect NH ground, with all principals having generally shown their form last time out. In other words, we would have little reason to doubt that the placed horses have been given an opportunity to run to their marks.
Whilst I don’t have Madison or Barbers Shop rated anywhere hear as high as the Official handicapper, I do think that both horses have run sound races and have them reaching 157 and 156 respectively, with Nacarat running to 153. In my interpretation, it simply would not be reasonable to rate them any lower (which I would have to do, if I wanted to hold down Kauto Star). Put it this way, if KS hadn’t run, we would very likely be happy to rate the ‘winner’ in the mid-to-high 160’s.
Ultimately, I’m not sure the "unlikely improvement" argument is sufficient justification to hold down Kauto Star’s mark – not when the placed horses have run as they did. The KG was ultimately an annihilation-job on top-class animals, made possible by a combination of perfect conditions (track, trip, ground, gallop).
The reasons for believing we witnessed something out of the ordinary on Saturday, seem far more compelling to me, than the one which suggests improvement on his best form was not at all possible.
I’m reasonably comfortable with rating him 192.
Edit: As must seem obvious by now, I’m not a great believer in time as an arbiter of form, but it’s perhaps worth noting the following:
The 2008 King George and Feltham were run in times almost identical in terms of their "above standard" mark – around 8.8 seconds. On Saturday, Kauto Star completed the course some 8 seconds quicker than Long Run, who carried 10lbs less, and who – in the eyes of most observers – was a very creditable Feltham winner.
Like I say, I’m the worst person to ask exactly what this suggests in terms of a time rating, but on my very crude interpretation, it would seem to complement the collateral form view i.e. that Kauto has run to a level of form not seen in 40 years.
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