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rain was heavy on the way back from work
lighter now – maybe that ground will soften up. Trust me – they wont be watering tonight – if they do they are stupid 
my dads just had a bet, he only ever bets in the national, he put imperial commander on, i said i can’t see anything getting to kauto, he said you never know
vf
my mum has gone for mon mome each way
vf
Me too.
And after peter h telling all of us about his dream, I might have a pound on My Will too.
If in the unlikely event one of the outsiders does win, how long do you think the list of excuses from the big names will be? I reckon we’re talking Central London phonebook at least.
Come on Denman!
He may very well be 5/1 on the off at this rate – Ladbrokes already offering that tasty morsel.
I’m gonna have at least 10 bananas E/W – now if that doesn’t give you confidence I don’t know what will.
Seriously, EW bet of the NH year.
I’ll also be pleased for AP if he wins as that will shut the doubters up.
Zip
- Total Posts 17716
Thanks to Big Buck’s winning I got both Kauto and Denman covered from a betting point of view with a Kauto win being worth twice as much, so either wins I’m happy.
However this race this year was never about betting for me.
Just the fact Kauto could win his 3rd Gold Cup is enough for me but Denman doesn’t take prisoners and will be out to spoil the party.
Denman drifting has absolutely no significance in what will take place in the race and probably has no bearing on his current physiacal condition. He was a certainty to drift after Newbury which would have dented even his most ardent fan’s confidence.
If Denman hadn’t run in the AON you’d be lucky to get 2/1 about him but that’s only part of why he’s out to 5/1.
Like myself thousands will have backed the Big Buck’s, Kauto Star double so their liabilities on Kauto will have leapt through the roof.
There’s also the race tactics to think about. The only way Denman can win is if Kauto goes wrong or falls, or Denman runs him into the ground.
The 5/1 makes him look a very safe and atrractive EW bet but the bookies are banking on Denman running himself into the ground and being picked of by others in the latter stages. If he finishes 2nd or 3rd the bookies and punters have lost nothing but if he’s out the frame the bookies make a small fortune.
They most likely think the ground is in their favout beeing good as the media are forever saying if it was soft it would increase Denman’s chances.
Persoanally I think they’re wrong. The last time Denman ran on really good ground was in the Lexus where he was never out of a canter actually quickened up real well for Ruby when asked.
AP is a brillaiant judge of pace as we saw yesterday on Alberta’s Run. He went just fast enough to get the to pick up again before the last and settle the issue.
I don’t think he can possibly beat Kauto Star all things being equal but on this ground I can’t see anything else getting near Denman. Imperial Commander would most likely want a little bit more cut and he may find things happen a bit too fast for him here.
For me with the best two chaser in the country being ridden by the best two jockeys in NH racing point to one bet and one bet only:-
Kauto Star
Denman
SFCSome excellent points,very well made.
I’d love to see Denman win later today,he is the perfect chaser in my opinion.
Numerous horses have shown they can bounce back after a poor display last time out,Menorah readily springs to mind.
If he gets into a rhythm early on and AP can give him a quiet breather at the top of the hill on the final circuit I can see him once again breaking Kauto’s heart.Whatever happens,let’s pray that they all come back safe and sound,fit to race again.
What about cerium, I know he hasnt run for a year, but did well to finish at Aintree last year with an injury.
Im forgetting about the 2 horse race hype on the tv this morning, any horse has a good chance and anything could happen !!Was going to have a decent bet on denman today but spunked my cash on Alfie Sherrin yesterday. Put on a big accumulator with my remaining £7, everything has won apart from…. Kauto star!
So I’d expect Denman to win by 30 lengths.
Kauto Star Is a certainty and should be supported as such. Get in the pantry, find the holiday money tin and put it all on to Kauto win. Then its Malta here you come.
- Total Posts 17716
Was going to have a decent bet on denman today but spunked my cash on Alfie Sherrin yesterday. Put on a big accumulator with my remaining £7, everything has won apart from…. Kauto star!
So I’d expect Denman to win by 30 lengths.
Good luck!- Total Posts 17716
What about cerium, I know he hasnt run for a year, but did well to finish at Aintree last year with an injury.
Im forgetting about the 2 horse race hype on the tv this morning, any horse has a good chance and anything could happen !!If he loses Malton is nice at this time of the year
You just get the feeling that the fairytale will come to an end kauto gets his 3 gold cups. But still, Denman is e/w value, in my opinion, if he doesnt win, he will be placed, if he isnt placed, its because he falls or pulls up, which i very much doubt will happen. He won the Hennessy 11-12, being right up there with Arkle and that. I think nicholls will have him spot on.
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