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This is an outstanding each way race.
Where the favourite Kauto Star is an odds-on shot (ideal for each way betting). What if Kauto Star did not run to form for some reason?
Second favourite unseated last time, seemingly scaring himself in the process. Would not be at all surprised if Denman was not placed at all.
Third favourite Imperial Commander is a doubtful stayer.
Fourth fav Cooldine may well improve, but has yet to put up a performance much better than the rest of the field.
Would not put anyone off backing Tricky Trickster if you still think he’s value. Is 16/1 enough though? Still unexposed, but will have to improve a good deal from Newbury to even reach the frame. Quite possible, but what price would Niche Market be in this?
The rest of the field are 66/1 and more.
I like 8 runners for each way betting, but take out the rank , no hopers Cerium and Mr Pointment. Mon Mome has next to no chance at this trip on goodish ground, does not have enough speed. Casey Jones and Calgary Bay might run in the William Hill instead. So how many are you left with?
My Will ran well last year, but doubtful he’ll be primed until April’s target.Carruthers
arguably ran better than his position of second suggests last time. Got embroiled in a pace dual with both Madison Du Berlais and Joe Lively. Time before put up the best performance of his career when beating subsequent easy handicap winner Big Fella Thanks. So still unexposed. It is possible, if not probable he’s best on softer going, but that could be that he’s better with a test of stamina. Should get the stamina test here. Did finish second in a bumper on a firm surface.
At 66/1 each way nrnb
, bog, I believe he’s worth chancing the ground.
Might be worth taking
100/1 nrnb, bog, Calgary Bay
too. I think he’s a bit like Khyber Kim in that he’s been a bit temperamental. But did nothing wrong over 3 miles on good-firm last time. Winning a class 2 handicap under 11 st 10 lbs. Stamina yet to be proven, but is bred to stay. From the family of Grey Abbey. Has been inconsistent in the past, but record on goodish going is pretty decent. There won’t be many better looking animals in the parade ring either. Might he yet fulfil his tall reputation? With money back if he does go to the William Hill ,100/1 looks too good to miss.
Both prices at William Hill. Realise you could get a bit better on the exchanges, but feel non-runner no bet is important.
Value Is EverythingDenman the stonking E/W bet of the NH season.
Cannot be out of the first 3 with a clear round.
I’d be surprised if he has lost his jumping confidence and connections obviously did not feel they needed to get him an egg and spoon race to go into the big ‘un on a win.
Kauto is
amaaaaaaaaazing
, arguably the best jumping horse of all time (is there a thread about that yet?
)However, looking at the race as a punting medium I have to go with the Tank as he is astounding E/W material with a genuine win chance.
I still feel he won on merit 2 years ago.
Would like some rain for Friday, please!
Zip
Would like some rain for Friday, please
there is going to be lots on thurs/fri
be interesting to see what claisse does now with the forecast as it is
Jesus wept, didn’t realise Cerium and Mr Pointment were in there.
Neither did i.
Cerium has only had 1 run, and that was the Grand National, since appearing in the Gold Cup in 2009.
Jesus wept, didn’t realise Cerium and Mr Pointment were in there.
Neither did i.
Cerium has only had 1 run, and that was the Grand National, since appearing in the Gold Cup in 2009.
Odd to think that this 2 will be having a ‘warm up’ for the national at the back end of the field whilst up front Kauto and Denman will be battling it out in the tussle the whole of racing has been waiting for?!?
Jesus wept, didn’t realise Cerium and Mr Pointment were in there.
Neither did i.
Cerium has only had 1 run, and that was the Grand National, since appearing in the Gold Cup in 2009.
A National during which he got kicked in the head, suffered a fractured skull and still ran on to be 5th, poor beast. Amazing effort under the circumstances.
I have no time at all for the owners of Cerium and Mr Pointment, who I thought(hoped) were departing racing in high dudgeon, but Cerium had been off nearly a year before running in the Gold Cup. Seemed to work as a tune up.
Went to the preview at th Centaur last night – first time I’ve ever been to one of these things but got dragged by a mate.
Was amazed how negative they were about Denman. Tom Scudamore said that he’d spoken to Sam Thomas recently and that he’d said the horse hadn’t been the same since his heart scare, he’d become much more quirky. Lee Mottershead said that the Hennessey "finished" Denman; when he was on the course after pulling up, Brough Scott reported he "visibly wobbled" and there was a moment when everyone feared he was going to keel over. LM said there had to be a question mark over whether the horse would be willing to put himself through the pain barrier again.
Most seemed to think it was Kauto, and Imperial Commander/Cooldine for the places.
It’s gone from being the race I was looking forward to, to the one I’m almost dreading.
To make Friday’s Gold Cup sound like some sort of prize fight between Kauto Star and Denman suggests to me that racing seems to have been dumbed down nearly as much as television !
I accept that Kauto Star has proved himself to be an animal of the highest class (despite my not being a fan), but Denman has won just once in his last five starts and has failed to complete in two of his last three races. Surely, the safe jumping Imperial Commander and Cooldine have every bit as good a chance of unseating Kauto Star than Denman has – and quite possibly a better one.
Friday’s race is a horse race – not a prize fight or a two horse race – and the sooner this ridiculous hype is dispensed with, the better.
To make Friday’s Gold Cup sound like some sort of prize fight between Kauto Star and Denman suggests to me that racing seems to have been dumbed down nearly as much as television !
I accept that Kauto Star has proved himself to be an animal of the highest class (despite my not being a fan), but Denman has won just once in his last five starts and has failed to complete in two of his last three races. Surely, the safe jumping Imperial Commander and Cooldine have every bit as good a chance of unseating Kauto Star than Denman has – and quite possibly a better one.
Friday’s race is a horse race – not a prize fight or a two horse race – and the sooner this ridiculous hype is dispensed with, the better.
Hmm, some interesting points.
What I’d argue is that any competition between two very highly-rated competitors will generate a lot of hype (I’ve tried to compare it to the Ali-Frazier duel to non-racing fan mates
), so I’d say there wasn’t anything you could really do about it.After the last two days, I’ll be hoping that what you said in the second par doesn’t come true, though!
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
the media rubbish is going to be a pain kauto vs denman
there are other horses in this race – there always are
Kauto is prone to the odd mistake but the ground has come good for him and Denman seems like a shadow of himself + the ground has gone against him.Imperial – does he stay or not – if he does this is his chance.
My longshot – Calgary Bay – looks like a gold cup horse, will he like the ground ? we might have a surprise
What I’d argue is that any competition between two very highly-rated competitors will generate a lot of hype (I’ve tried to compare it to the Ali-Frazier duel to non-racing fan mates
), so I’d say there wasn’t anything you could really do about it.It’s gonna be a thrilla up the Cheltenahm hilla!
Sorry.
Although I am getting a bit annoyed about it being billed as a two horse race. I think I’ll just take advantage of one of the bookies’ – without Kauto Star & Denman – markets & forget about the pair of them.
I suppose that would essentially make an each way bet five places. Might be worth betting on Mon Mome for reasons other than sentiment after all!
My heart wants Denman to win but my head says he can’t.
I don’t want Kauto to win, I like change.
Looking at the field, I don’t see why Imperial Commander couldn’t do it. He romped home in the Ryanair last year. Seems to have proved he stays 3miles this season. Has the one poor effort at Kempton, but a lot of horses seem to have a bad run there – Its the right hand factor surely? I want to back Imperial Commander – but I hate backing horses who then disappoint. BUT I THINK HE CAN WIN.
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I like Imperial Commander for this. Great record at the track the Kempton run was nonsense (don’t know why they sent him after his 08 run there) so i won’t worry about that and he’s apparantly in cracking form.
I like Denman also but after he crossed the finish line in the Henessy he stopped, head down and looked ruined as the other horses ran on. I thought then he’ll never run a race like that again, and i just hope he gets round in one piece.
Imperial Commander pulling away from Kauto Star up the hill with Cooldine taking third.
I had an odd dream last night…
They were turning for home and it was My Will and Mon Mome sharing the lead with Kauto a length back in third and Denman another length back in fourth. They jumped the second last and Kauto just crumbled to the ground. I wasn’t able to see the winner because i woke up, but the last thing i remember was My Will and Mon Mome pushing for home with Denman at a one pace in third…
I wouldn’t trust it, but i suppose because of that it wouldn’t hurt to put a pound each way on both
)
), so I’d say there wasn’t anything you could really do about it.
Kauto is prone to the odd mistake but the ground has come good for him and Denman seems like a shadow of himself + the ground has gone against him.
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