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Kauto Star will win it. Next question please
Can he really win a 3rd Gold Cup? or will Denman bounce back to hi best and beat him again?
Will Mikael D’Haguenet turn out to be so good he’ll be the first Novice Chaser since Captain Christy to win it?
Or will TAPK be proved right and Big Bucks will win it………can’t believe I asked that one
Or do you have some other horse in mind?
Cooldine looks the value to me. He wasn’t right at Punchestown (lung infection) and you can safely put a line through that run. The Sun Alliance was probably a poor enough renewal but he bolted up and the form of the Moriarty was franked emphatically in the Arkle. His jumping will need to improve but it should as he gets more experience over fences considering he has only ran in five chases so far.
Kauto Star cannot keep going forever and he represents no value whatsoever at the current price IMO. He’ll be a 10yo next year and there’s not that many French breds who’d still be at their peak at that age. Denman has question marks over him and I’d need to see him showing the right signs on the track before I’d consider backing him again. Notre Pere looked very good at Punchestown but there’d have to be plenty of dig before Dreaper would even consider running him.
Nothing else really appeals at this stage, but there could be a dark horse out there somewhere. Something stepping up from two miles or a horse returning from injury? Glencove Marina perhaps?
Never too early to start this thread…
Just had a look at the betting for this race – surprised at the lack of depth and neither Kauto or Denman will have to be at the peak of their powers to take this, in my opinion.
Some good horses in the field, but…
Imperial Call…not convinced he stays
Norte Pere…not quick enough
Cooldine…potential, but appears to be nothing special
Madison Du Berlais…never at his best around Cheltenam
MDH and Big Bucks…won’t run
Barbers Shop and Albertas Run…well beaten last yearKauto’s performance last year was simply breathtaking and easily the greatest exhibition of steeplechasing I’ve ever seen. It was quite literally flawless and somewhere close to that will be good enough.
We had this debate about French breds last year and Kauto proved to be an exception to the rule…and not for the first time. He can’t go on forever and perhaps that was his defining moment, but as long as he retains 90% of his ability he’ll still prove tough to beat.
I gave Denman the benefit of the doubt after his seasonal debut last year, but after his effort at Cheltenham I said he would never be the same again and his performance at Aintree was just what I expected.
He was beaten when he fell. I don’t want to hear any excuses about the track etc, that was not the Denman of 07-08. If he and MDB locked horns again on a flat track over three miles, the David Pipe horse would beat him again. He jumps as well as Denman and can serve it up to him.
The Tank simply doesn’t like this.
That Gold Cup victory was awesome, but he was legless at the end (compared to his stablemate who showed incredible heart to drag himself round the second circuit and stay on) and he left a piece of himself on the course that day.
I get the impression he’d rather be at home dominating in the field than dominating on the racetrack.
Yes, he had problems before the season started, but I have said this before and I’ll say it again, there was nothing wrong with his fitness at Cheltenham. He simply wasn’t giving the right signs at home which is why connections were close to pulling him out. He was completely sound and fit enough to do himself justice, but simply ran into a better horse on the day who was flawless.
I wondered if connections would continue with the forceful tactics after his Gold Cup romp. He was knackered at the finish and if they tried that again it could finish him, but go too slow and you play into Kauto’s hoofs.
That’s what happened last year and it will be interesting if connections return to those tactics or, just as important, the horse still fancies it.
The vibes from Ditcheat are good, but he finished last season with another gruelling effort at Cheltenham before a hard, tired fall at Aintree that resulted in a nasty cut.
Will he return to his dominating best? Hopefully, but I want to see some evidence first.
Well beaten last year, but Barbers Shop will be better for the experience and stronger. He was travelling as well as anything for most of the way before he ran out of petrol, but with another year on his back he should see the race out this time.
He could reach a place, along with Albertas Run, who also travelled well that day. Always hard for a second season chaser, he could be better this year.
Imperal Call stayed the Gold Cup trip no bother, Bos.
In Barbers Shop and Alberta’s Run, I think you have alighted on the two beasts I would be most worried about giving their running in a Gold Cup.
In bottomless ground, Notre Pere could be a danger, and Cooldine can certainly improve, but it will take regression from the front pair to allow anything else to land a blow – they are too far ahead for anything to have a serious chance of bridging the gap.
Kauto Star will win it.
Or will TAPK be proved right and Big Bucks will win it………can’t believe I asked that one
Or do you have some other horse in mind?
TAPK is grateful you kick started this thread Fist as its time to start focusing on the jumps!I have no doubt
Big Bucks
at 25/1 has the class to win a Gold Cup,i do have doubts about his ability to jump fences.Perhaps he is just a slow maturing beast both mentally and physically and Team Nicholls have him schooled up to the gunnels!Should they keep him to hurdling then he is the one they all have to beat in the stayers!I will be staying loyal to
Albertas run
at 120 on the machine,he is still capable of surprising! My Dark horse for the 31/4m Gold cup is
Forpadydeplasterer
at 100 on the machine,this is a proper horse who still hasn"t found his ideal trip yet! He is my Cheltenham banker for whatever race his connections target!
Big Bucks will win a Gold Cup one year but not this one. Probably be up against Mikhael in 2011/12. Something to savour.
This year the greatest chaser in training Kauto should triumph again,and deservedly so,if he remains sound. Like the way Nicholls is giving him a relatevely light programme,with the GC in mind.Imperal Call stayed the Gold Cup trip no bother, Bos.
I sure did!
Looking through the betting on the exchanges, Aran Concerto is the only other horse that I think could possibly improve for a step up to 3m2. Whether he can stay sound is another matter though.
Given the aforementioned lack of depth as things stand and the quoting of novices such as Mikael d’Haguenet, I’m surprised that not even one firm is offering a price on Punchestowns.
Oops! Of course, I meant Imperial Commander – it was late!
I think the race came a year too soon for Barbers Shop, but I was impressed with just how well he travelled against the big boys for the first time and I expect to see improvement this year.
Good shout regarding Punchestowns.
Some really exciting novice chasers around at the moment and with the lack of strength evident in both the Gold Cup and Queen Mother, it wouldn’t surprise me if either event attracted a top class novice.
Why would a top novice chaser run for third place prize-money (at best) in a Gold Cup, when he can win twice as much for taking the RSA Chase?
If Kauto and Denman both make Cheltenham in decent form, then I’d be hugely surprised if
any
of the top-rank novices ran in the Gold Cup. Much easier (and richer) pickings altogether to be had in their own event.
Pretty-much the same applies to the Queen Mother/Arkle, imo.
- Total Posts 17716
Good point
I would have to agree. Big Bucks may well be a Gold Cup horse someday but while Kauto and Denman remain fit healthy and healthy it’s not going to happen Not while Big Bucks has the World Hurdle at his mercy.
Surely it’s unlikely he’ll go for the Hennessy again as Denman looks set to go there. So unless something happens to the big 2 I would imagine he’ll stick to hurdles.
If something does go a miss then Gord has stolen a march at 25/1 as he is dfinitly a class horse. But then the Gold Cup would have cut up terribly and if MD was setting the world alight you might well find Mullins would have a go with him.
I’m not so sure Denman can’t come back to his very best. Considering his long lay off he’s run an amazing race in the Gold Cup and I’m convinced he would have won at Aintree. MDB hardly finished full of running and poor old Exotic Dancer gained an awful lot of ground on him over the last 3.
In affect Denman had an easy season having only 3 runs and with a long rest I expect him to come back all guns blazing. PN never pushed him last season, he was given a sympathtic ride in the Gold Cup and not many run well at Aintree after Cheltenham.
Why people think he won’t come back to his very best come March is beyond me. You simply can’t write the horse off after one bad run on his return. Plus he was deliberately ridden the way he was at Cheltenham because PN felt he wasn’t 100% fit.
If the ground is heavy on the day I suppose Cooldine could beat Kauto Star but would he beat Denman or Notre Pere?
Nick Henderson was misquoted several times by the press stating he said Barer’s Shop a Gold Cup horse. Not true and I think we can expect him to be running in the Ryanir next year.
Uness Alberta’s Run improves by about 17lb he’s highly unlkely to go for the Gold Cup again but that decision won’t be made until after the Charlie Hall. The horse simpy isn’t thought to be good enoughnd there are plenty more fish to fry with him. Jonjo has probably more faith in Witchita Lineman and Don’t Push it to be taking some big prizes this season than him but I doubt if either would be in Exotic Dancer’s class.
If Denman does bounce back and we have another Kauto Star V Denman round I could see the 2010 Gold being a very small field like back in the 60’s as very little look like coming through the ranks to bother them
Jonjo has probably more faith in
Witchita Lineman
and Don’t Push it to be taking some big prizes this season than him but I doubt if either would be in Exotic Dancer’s class.
Wichita Lineman sadly is no longer with us Fist following his first fence fall at Fairyhouse in April.
I know my place in the world, and I won’t have anything else to say on this thread, and won’t be betting anything.
The one thing I would like to say is to look out for Joe Lively on Soft ground at Cheltenham.
Why would a top novice chaser run for third place prize-money (at best) in a Gold Cup, when he can win twice as much for taking the RSA Chase?
If Kauto and Denman both make Cheltenham in decent form, then I’d be hugely surprised if
any
of the top-rank novices ran in the Gold Cup. Much easier (and richer) pickings altogether to be had in their own event.
Pretty-much the same applies to the Queen Mother/Arkle, imo.
Of course, it’s highly unlikely, but if Denman fails to recapture his old form and Kauto appears vulnerable, someone might fancy their chances.
Like I said, highly unlikely, bordering on no f***ing chance, but stranger things have happened. It wouldn’t surprise me.
Does Fergus Wilson have an exciting novice chaser this year?
As far as the QM is concerned (not much interest in that race on here, I notice. Wonder why?). I’ve just had a peak at the betting for both the Arkle and QMCC and, Master Minded aside, what another ordinary lot of champion two milers.
I’d go as far to say that MM would find the Arkle tougher than the Champion Chase.
Slightly off topic, is Sam Thomas expected to keep the ride on Denman if Ruby is to ride Kauto come Gold Cup day ? or has Nicholls got a new second jockey ?
This one seems to be the decision of the owners, rather than the trainer, so the second jockey is irrelevant.
There doesn’t seem to be any reason to replace Thomas, unless AP is available.
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