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Kauto Star has captured two Tingle Creeks at Sandown over the minimum trip, so the theory that Denman took him out of his comfort zone last year is bogus, in my opinion.
If there’s one place that takes more jumping than Cheltenham it’s Sandown. Even more so over two miles, negotiating the Railway Fences at pace.
Kauto wasn’t right last year. Period. The foot injury that blighted his preperation for the race was present before the Commercial Chase, yet went undetected.
It’s clear that at this stage of his career he’s best when fresh. He was flat last year, couple that with the injury and you got valid reasons for his below-par effort.
To put Friday’s effort into perspective, I think Exotic Dancer is, as previously stated, a solid yardstick. There’s two races on left-handed tracks that you could analyse with KS and ED prior to Friday – the Gold Cup and Betfair Chase of 2007. KS beat ED by 2 1/2 L and 1/2 L, respectively – an average of 1 1/2 L.
Compare that to their meetings on right-handed tracks, it’s 8L and 12L – an average of 10L.
Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer both came into the race on the back of victories, with ideal preperations and a light campaign. As stated above, their meetings on left-handed tracks are always much closer, but Kauto smashed him by 15 1/2 L in the Gold Cup.
Has Kauto improved? Perhaps, although it’s a bit far-fetched to think he’s better than ever at the age of nine, but not impossible. I just think that Paul Nicholls has found the key to him. Perhaps he has always required time between races to be at his best.
If you forget the Betfair Chase, Kauto hasn’t been asked a serious question this year and has won each race by an average of 10 1/2 L.
I’ll stick my neck out and say that he’ll never put in another performance like Friday again. That’s the most complete performace I’ve ever seen in National Hunt racing. He travelled, jumped and quickened in effortless fashion. The more I watch it, the more I appreciate it. Class, courage and flamboyance – just beautiful.
That was his defining moment, and one that we will all remember him by.
I don’t think Denman will ever return the same horse he was in 2007-2008. He can certainly improve on this season, but those efforts have scarred him for the rest of his career, in my opinion.
Like any good fighter, though, he’s always got one big fight left in him.
There was nothing wrong with him on Friday. He was sound, fit and well. The reaction to his phenomenal effort was relief more than anything – it told us he’s still alive and kicking and fit enough to compete. He didn’t have an interrupted preperation, but the doubts surrounding his retention of ability were the primary reason behind the lack of confidence and subsequent change of tactics.
If he returns to Cheltenham next year on the back of an impreesive season and connections adopt those tactics again, regardless of the ground, he’ll be put in his place again. He can’t win like that.
The question is ‘Can Denman withstand the forceful tactics of old?’
Sadly, I doubt it.
Is it true that Sam dismounted him straight away after the race and they were quick to pour as much water over him as possible when he got to the paddock?
I absolutely agree that, irrespective of next year’s Gold Cup, Kauto is a superior beast in terms of versatility. That is why I think he deserves the rare distinction of "great."
Most of us seem to agree on that.
Denman surely had an "interrupted preparation" Bosranic?
He was far more hindered on Friday by his troubles since his heart condition came to the fore than Kauto was hindered by his hoof infection? (if that is the injury you refer to?)
I found this link:
http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing … 20308.html
I still think Denman could burn off Kauto on good ground.
Ok, maybe it could go either way – a real tussle….but I honestly believe the Tank could defeat him, but will he be 100% next year?
Good question!
If we keep this debate going long enough it may be bloomin’ March 2009!
Zip
Ps,
I respect your view Monksfield….guess only time will tell.Interesting link, GZ.
It actually makes me appreciate Kauto even more to know that he competed at Ascot when he was probably in some degree of pain.
The person that wrote the article details the effect it can have on a horse. If it was that severe, then there’s no doubt it would’ve shown up.
Regardless, your have to think about the mental effect it must have had on him during his preperation for the Gold Cup that year.
As for Denman’s problems. There’s no doubt that it affected him during the early stages of the season and, after the treatment, he sent out mixed messages at home regarding his wellbeing.
He clearly went to Kempton when not 100% and duly ran below-par. That effort would not have affected his preperation for Cheltenham, though. Paul Nicholls would’ve adopted the same preperation had he won impressively.
There’s no doubt it left connections scratching their heads and slightly concerned, but he was more than likely trained the same as always, with connections just hopeful he’d show them something – and he did.
I doubt there’s a monumental amount of improvement to come from him and I seriously doubt he has the ability to gallop his rivals into submission anymore.
I’ll believe when I see it.
Kauto Star has captured two Tingle Creeks at Sandown over the minimum trip, so the theory that Denman took him out of his comfort zone last year is bogus, in my opinion.
If there’s one place that takes more jumping than Cheltenham it’s Sandown. Even more so over two miles, negotiating the Railway Fences at pace.
Kauto wasn’t right last year. Period. The foot injury that blighted his preperation for the race was present before the Commercial Chase, yet went undetected.
It’s clear that at this stage of his career he’s best when fresh. He was flat last year, couple that with the injury and you got valid reasons for his below-par effort.
To put Friday’s effort into perspective, I think Exotic Dancer is, as previously stated, a solid yardstick. There’s two races on left-handed tracks that you could analyse with KS and ED prior to Friday – the Gold Cup and Betfair Chase of 2007. KS beat ED by 2 1/2 L and 1/2 L, respectively – an average of 1 1/2 L.
Compare that to their meetings on right-handed tracks, it’s 8L and 12L – an average of 10L.
Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer both came into the race on the back of victories, with ideal preperations and a light campaign. As stated above, their meetings on left-handed tracks are always much closer, but Kauto smashed him by 15 1/2 L in the Gold Cup.
Has Kauto improved? Perhaps, although it’s a bit far-fetched to think he’s better than ever at the age of nine, but not impossible. I just think that Paul Nicholls has found the key to him. Perhaps he has always required time between races to be at his best.
If you forget the Betfair Chase, Kauto hasn’t been asked a serious question this year and has won each race by an average of 10 1/2 L.
I’ll stick my neck out and say that he’ll never put in another performance like Friday again. That’s the most complete performace I’ve ever seen in National Hunt racing. He travelled, jumped and quickened in effortless fashion. The more I watch it, the more I appreciate it. Class, courage and flamboyance – just beautiful.
That was his defining moment, and one that we will all remember him by.
I don’t think Denman will ever return the same horse he was in 2007-2008. He can certainly improve on this season, but those efforts have scarred him for the rest of his career, in my opinion.
Like any good fighter, though, he’s always got one big fight left in him.
There was nothing wrong with him on Friday. He was sound, fit and well. The reaction to his phenomenal effort was relief more than anything – it told us he’s still alive and kicking and fit enough to compete. He didn’t have an interrupted preperation, but the doubts surrounding his retention of ability were the primary reason behind the lack of confidence and subsequent change of tactics.
If he returns to Cheltenham next year on the back of an impreesive season and connections adopt those tactics again, regardless of the ground, he’ll be put in his place again. He can’t win like that.
The question is ‘Can Denman withstand the forceful tactics of old?’
Sadly, I doubt it.
Sadly Bos you are amile of the mark mate
No offence my friend but Pau Nichols made it perectly clear although he thought he had Denman not far of 100% he wasn’t spot on. He said if he goes off like he did last year he won’t get home (will blow up). The horse wasn’t fit enough to be going of like he was Dessie with wings mate. Bog all to do with whether he reatins his ability or not.You would think Denman had dropped dead of a heart attack and been brought back to life. He had a minor heart comlaint that many many many animals have and in most cases is self correcting. he’s racehorse/athelete so "Yes" it affected him and held him up in his work but he showed in the Gold Cup he is totally over it and is showing abslotely no ill effects.
The horse hasn’t been injured, many of his races have been easy ones and he’s certainly not had as many hard races as Kauto.
Harry Findlay came away with this he’ll never be the same again rubbish………Harry is human and he worries like any owner.
Next season a 100% fit Denman will be back galloping everything into the ground again. He’s a young horse not an OAP.
Sadly Bos you are amile of the mark mate
No offence my friend but Pau Nichols made it perectly clear although he thought he had Denman not far of 100% he wasn’t spot on. He said if he goes off like he did last year he won’t get home (will blow up). The horse wasn’t fit enough to be going of like he was Dessie with wings mate. Bog all to do with whether he reatins his ability or not.You would think Denman had dropped dead of a heart attack and been brought back to life. He had a minor heart comlaint that many many many animals have and in most cases is self correcting. he’s racehorse/athelete so "Yes" it affected him and held him up in his work but he showed in the Gold Cup he is totally over it and is showing abslotely no ill effects.
The horse hasn’t been injured, many of his races have been easy ones and he’s certainly not had as many hard races as Kauto.
Harry Findlay came away with this he’ll never be the same again rubbish………Harry is human and he worries like any owner.
Next season a 100% fit Denman will be back galloping everything into the ground again. He’s a young horse not an OAP.
In my opinion there was nothing wrong with Denman’s general fitness and didn’t Harry say after the race that if they knew he could run like he did they would’ve ridden him more positively. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
Paul Nicholls didn’t think the horse would get home if the same tactics were applied because he didn’t know if he had the same horse as last year.
The question still remains ‘Has the horse retained the ability (due to his problems) to adopt his usual forceful tactics?’
I disagree with you regarding the number of hard races he has had. His style of running suggests that just about every race he has takes it toll. For example, his Aon Chase win may have looked easy enough, but that took just as much out of him as any other race – a lot.
I doubt we’ll see the Denman of old again, in my opinion. As a 9YO, approaching ten next season, he’s no OAP, but far from a spring chicken, either.
I hope I’m proved wrong.
Having just recovered after an early night following a mighty booze-up culminating in the Plough in Prestbury to commemorate Kauto’s magnificent performance, there’s probably not much to add. I agree with most of Bos’s thoughtful comments, although I think that Denman’s prep must have been behind schedule. It remains to be seen if Kauto retains all his ability for another two to three years, but I wonder if we may have seen him at the peak of his powers.
The Gold Cup isn’t a doddle, and it was a terrific performance by Denman in the circumstances. Discounting his previous run, his two defeats at Chelters where when he was outpaced at the end. To have had a chance on Thursday, he would have needed to have stormed off, and whether he can still do that we don’t know. However, happily, he looks like he’ll be ready for a good season next time.
Just my opinion, but I think it would be wrong to judge today’s form on My Will.
The horse was effectively ridden for a place, never had to compete with the principals at any stage of the race, and had a totally easy time of doing what he did.
Consequently, having effectively run in his own race, I believe he is flattered by his proximity to some much better horses. Whatever one’s views, form just isn’t that linear.My Will was in front of Exotic Dancer for two thirds of the race
. Did not have the speed to go with the "principles". Under pressure before Roll Along, Alberta’s Run and Barber Shop. A few lengths behind them coming down the hill, before staying on past them in the final quarter mile. Don’t think it was due to being "ridden for a place".
Ideal National trial.
Good point Ginger; the only thing behind Exotic Dancer for much of the race was the ambulance.
My point is if you say My Will was "ridden for a place" then Exotic Dancer was also ridden for a place. So was Exotic Dancer "flattered" Reet? It is not as if My Will was tenderly handled until late on; as soon as he became outpaced Schofield put the horse under pressure. Ridden by a claimer unable to claim think he ran a great race, on merit.
Mark
Value Is EverythingInteresting opinions as usual, here"s mine! That was visually the most impressive performance i have ever seen from Kauto Star, his jumping was
clinical, he travelled like a dream and he quickened up like only a true champ can at the end of a race, Neptune ran a gallant race right up to his mark on ground that was not ideal, Exotic could only have got closer on softer ground that would have blunted Kauto"s speed, Albertas run could/should have ran better than his finishing position. Denman will never beat the Kauto we witnessed on friday on that ground! On softer ground
the real Denman would beat Kauto every time no question! The pair of them are so reliable on the state of the ground that we will never know who
really is the best! IMO!ya know what gwilson for once i agree with you..
xEASY TIGER! You know me "Becks" a bit of a smart Ass wih a sense of humour though! and having said previously that i thought Neptune would fall
i was hoping to God he didn"t, as you would probably have made an "effigy" of me and chopped my balls off with a rusty pair of scissors!!
He will be off to Punchestown next no doubt to win his big race?Aristo / Fist – I was asking a fair question to another poster, who answered with grace, why do you feel the need to launch in to a another tirade?
No offence but you proved when discussing this seasons Hennessey that you have absolutly no idea when it comes to handicapping (ido you remember – (Denman ran off 11-12 so he must have been the same rating as Trabolgan was when he ran off 11-12 if i remember rightly) or ratings, even given your famous "years in the game" so get off your high horse.
Monksfield – i didn’t make any reference to next years race.
Mark – that can only be your interpretation surely? Or are you saying Denman ran to a similar mark as he did last year?
What is this similar mark rubbish mate. I don’t mean to harp on at you but this ratings crap is just a bunch of figures that rareley work inside a deperate judges head
IMO.
Did you watch the two races. Last year it was as plain as the nose on your face that Kauto Star was not himself.
Whe myself and others said the form was wrong as NC had finished upside KS we got hit with NC was an improving horse.
This year Kauto turned up at his very best was never out a common canter until Ruby said go and put so much air between himslf and the very much imroved (my ass) NC
Kauto Absolutely turned the form on it’s head. We all know the Denman story but he has run a blinder all the way to the line and beat NC a similar distance to last year. So in reality of you want to throw figures about it must be said through that line Denman improved on last year.
Denman is one paced at the end of his races. Any time he and KS meet and both are in top form. Ruby will just take the piss and pass him at will IMO.
Fist,
If PC thinks Denman’s form last year is better than Kauto Star’s this year (as I believe the Racing Post ratings do) then he is talking of "marks".You and I may disagree with him (and the RP) but his opinion is hardly rubbish, just his opinion. If you say Kauto Star is better than Denman then you yourself work to "marks". Are you a "desperate judge".
Nicholls has said since the race. NC was unsuited by the conditions, so he must have run below form; therefore Denman must have run below form.
If you believe Denman and Neptunes ran to form then do you believe Exotic Dancer, My Will and Roll Along improved? I think it is best judging the race by Exotic Dancer and how much further Kauto Star beat him.
Mark
You really are a big hit for yourself Ginge. Who appointed you world cop? Always the smarty pants telling people what they should say and shouldn’t say
Show me where I said "PC you are talking rubbish"
I said the ratings are rubbish. Not that he was talking rubbish but thanks to you he now thinks I was.
You interfering old sweetie-wife
, maybes your not so bad.. but yea after your comments n losing grizebeck 2days before chelt i have to say i was so scared for nipper, yea he be of to punchestown, hopefully slower ground n bit of rain , be dream come true if we manage da hat trick ..! xSadly Bos you are amile of the mark mate
No offence my friend but Pau Nichols made it perectly clear although he thought he had Denman not far of 100% he wasn’t spot on. He said if he goes off like he did last year he won’t get home (will blow up). The horse wasn’t fit enough to be going of like he was Dessie with wings mate. Bog all to do with whether he reatins his ability or not.You would think Denman had dropped dead of a heart attack and been brought back to life. He had a minor heart comlaint that many many many animals have and in most cases is self correcting. he’s racehorse/athelete so "Yes" it affected him and held him up in his work but he showed in the Gold Cup he is totally over it and is showing abslotely no ill effects.
The horse hasn’t been injured, many of his races have been easy ones and he’s certainly not had as many hard races as Kauto.
Harry Findlay came away with this he’ll never be the same again rubbish………Harry is human and he worries like any owner.
Next season a 100% fit Denman will be back galloping everything into the ground again. He’s a young horse not an OAP.
In my opinion there was nothing wrong with Denman’s general fitness and didn’t Harry say after the race that if they knew he could run like he did they would’ve ridden him more positively. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
Paul Nicholls didn’t think the horse would get home if the same tactics were applied because he didn’t know if he had the same horse as last year.
The question still remains ‘Has the horse retained the ability (due to his problems) to adopt his usual forceful tactics?’
I disagree with you regarding the number of hard races he has had. His style of running suggests that just about every race he has takes it toll. For example, his Aon Chase win may have looked easy enough, but that took just as much out of him as any other race – a lot.
I doubt we’ll see the Denman of old again, in my opinion. As a 9YO, approaching ten next season, he’s no OAP, but far from a spring chicken, either.
I hope I’m proved wrong.
Mate PN as far as I know never said what you have written. I’m not sure what’s opinion and what’s facts but I can make this much clear. PN felt Denman was a bit short and that is why he used the tactics he did. Nothing to do with him thinking he is not the same horse. That started from HF who said at the time he was talking as apunter not a trainer.
Absolutely nothing wrong with the horse he’s ran a stormer. Had he been more forceably ridden all that would have happened is he would have blown up 3 out and probably finished 3rd instead of 2nd.
Mark my words Denman will be back to his old ways come the Hennessy and it will be like he’s never been away.
I dont think denman of old was quite 100% back to himself as PN and co had only said in the run up that they were really happy with him about a week or two before the race.
However in the gold cup he ran an absolute blinder, and it is worth remembering that kauto had more in his favour groundwise, than denman and with a bit more cut in the ground next year, I would think if the same denman (or hopefully a better perpared one) will have enought to turn the tables in his favour again.
Personally I think it’s a big ask Bully but not impossible. Kauto 2008 and Kauto 2009 were like chalk and cheese. You would have to think based on the two race somewhere in between lies the answer.
At a guess because of his superior turn of foot I would imagine Kauto would be a 5 or 6 length winner all being equal.
When at thier bests both horses travel extemely well and both jump well.
I doubt if Denman could go flat out for the full Gold Cup trip and would cut his own throat if he did.
His second circuit injection of pace in 2008 had Kauto in trouble immediately which any sensible person is going to question.
Experience of watching the horse tells us Kauto is rarely of the bridle at any point of a race.
His jockey told us he never felt right but some choose to ignore the facts because they backed Denman and they are looking through rose coloured spectacles IMO
Now Kauto Star has not only reversed the form with him by 20 lengths he has left the horse who finished upides him last year miles behind. The excuse for him I am hearing "it was the ground" Mick Fitgerald reckons it make very little difference to Nipper that "he is such a nice horse he goes well on any ground" I don’t think it bothers him one way or the other". That was his exact words when asked. So we have PN making an exuse for the horse that a top jockey disagrees with.
My eyes tell me, Kauto is and always will be the better horse. PN himself seems to believe he is and Ruby most certainly does.
However individual races don’t always turn out the way we think.
If PN can get both horses to Cheltenham 2010 100% that on it’s own will be an excellent achievement.
I think with Denman the man proved he as good at that as the great Michael Dickinson was and I really admire him for getting Denman there is such good nick this year.
I was very impressed with Denman considering he must have been at least a bit short. How much is anyone’s guess but the man is a genius and you can bet he wasn’t that far off 100% to have run a race like that.
If the Gold Cup had been 2 weeks further on he is bound to have run Kauto much closer or at least made it more difficult for him.
As I said it is not impossible that Denman will beat Kauto Star next season. I don’t think he will but he’s a helluva horse and if anything goes wrong he will be the one to take advantage off it.
I bet ya Harry Findlay has a few quid on already
You have to disregard everything Paul Nichols says and make your own mind up. Some people seem to believe him when he says NC ran below form and Denman was short this year but not what he said about Kauto the year previous.
I prefer to use my own eyes and they say that Kauto Star didn’t jump or travel at all in last years Gold Cup and Denman was all out (and finished seriously knackered) in beating him by 7 lengths. Great horse, great race!
This year both horses jumped and travelled fluently, Kauto more so, finishing an easier 13 lenghts clear. Greater horse, greater race.I have also noticed that Paul Nicholls is very inconsistent when dishing out comments about his horses. At the time (March 2008), he did say that Kauto Star was beaten fair and square by Denman and had no excuse – and afterwards was said to be quite gloomy over KS’s demise.
Now he says, following Kauto’s victory this year that he (KS) probably was out of sorts last year. Come on Paul, make up your mind.
He also said – and I have it on record – that there will be little to choose between Kauto and Denman if both get to Cheltenham fully fit in 2010.
I await further amendments – circumstances pertaining.
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