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“2. Bad value doesn’t become value by linking such horses together – it just creates multiple bets that are even worse value.”
Cough johnny dineen cough
It was more applied to constitution hill and facile vega Jack.
I don’t think any of them are what I’d describe as value. But Hermes and Marie’s rock are about what I’d expect. But all 3 of them are the most likely winner so I do feel that at the combined odds it’s worth a swing.
But yeah, my overall point is that in the championship races it’s becoming impossible to obtain value at the head of the market on the ante post.
I also feel that given who’s going to run or not run in the races I’ve nominated the 3 horses those prices could look very good in 9 weeks time. Jonbon will probably go odds on if he romps the kingmaker, Marie’s rock will shorten further if brandy love doesn’t show up soon and Hermes Allen is going straight there so unlikely to go off any bigger than 3’s. Particularly after the Mullins horse bombed earlier. Madness when you think of it but true nonetheless!
It’s true they are Tizz, for sure. You really need to take a swing very early, like the year before to get anything, and then it’s debatable if that’s value as it’s so far out.
It’s scary Jonbon might actually go shorter when he beats up nothing (same horses) again but then Appreciate It did to day as well…DRF may make him not go much shorter, or of course go even shorter.
Once the WPM horses are juggled and see what is his Ballymore contender i suspect Hermes Allen will actually drift. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Impaire Et Passe show himself up well again in the MF, and maybe step up in trip to dodge FV. Guesswork though.
Telmesomethinggirl is a new one to be a contender in the mares now so i think it could be a proper betting race.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Yeah it’s very hard to have a proper punt on any of the favourites this time of year with how the bookies price them up now, not saying the likes of Facile Vega and Lossiemouth are too short because if I were a bookie I’d probably have them both around evens too, it just means you have to put down serious money if you want to win anything meaningful, which is hard to do in the current climate and this far out with injury risks and like someone mentioned in another thread a few weeks back there’s the opportunity cost as well.
And to completely contradict myself I’ve just put a couple of accumulators on (a few combinations with Facile Vega, Constituion Hill and Allegori De Vassy being the must-wins)
Facile Vega (think he was short of peak fitness LTO, can see his season being similar to Appreciate It’s Supreme season)
Constituion Hill
Lossiemouth/Jupiter Du Guit
Allegori De Vassy
Luccia/Ashroe DiamondMinella Cocooner injured, was able to cash out with Paddy Power so quite decent of them not to withdraw it immediately.
Wasnt sure where to post this.
This morning Bet365 have gone NRNB on all Chelt Festival races.
And with it they’ve probably trimmed 3 points of every horse in every market!
W@nkers!
TC
The prices look much like they were the last few days, before NRNB. They were already NRNB on Ch Hurdle, Gold Cup, QMCC, Stayers.
When you go on this thread to tell everyone Bet365 have now gone NRNB only to find Wilts was just the EIGHT HOURS ahead of you!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I’ll just put up my two from this morning, and the rest of them later if I can be bothered
NH Chase Kilcruit 25-1
Triumph Hurdle Cinsa 33-1 nrnb
Into overdrive & Bravemansgame each way double
Jonbon, Marie’s rock (mares) Hermes Allen win treble
Queens gamble and BMG each way double
Lucia (mares novice) and Hermes Allen win double
Lucia, Queens gamble, Hermes Allen, A plus tard in an each way acca and a win lucky 15.
Jonbon & APT win double
Queens gamble & APT each way double.
Hermes, BMG and queens each way treble
Remastered (ultima) An Taillur (Pertemps) BMG and queens in a lucky 15
Fantastikas (ultima) BMG queens gamble each way treble.
Those are the ones that are still live. I had a couple of others which involved pic D’orhy running in the Ryanair that are down the pan now.
Before anyone calls me a bellend for repeatedly having the same horses in the same races, I’m aware of that, they’re to various stakes and “permd” with others.
I’m nailing my colours to the mast with the likes of queens gamble, bravemamsgame and Hermes Allen.
If the 3 of them cop then I should end the week laughing buckets of snot!
Lucky 15 e.w
Vaubaun champion hurdle
Might I Coral Cup
Bravemansgame Gold Cup
Hill Sixteen Grand National
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
Even allowing for the facts that in the handicaps: many down the bottom of the weights won’t get a run, it’s NRNB and there’s no Rule 4, the margins even at best prices are horrendous.
Finding one that will be shorter on the day is needle-in-a-haystack stuff.
They will nearly all be bigger and, for all you each-way Jessies, there will be enhanced place terms on the day too.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Agree ID. I see absolutely no point in having any Cheltenham bets between now and the start of the meeting, especially on the handicaps. Why would you back something at 10/1 for 4 places when you will in all likelihood get 16/1 for 6 places on the day?
No one knows what will be running anyway. Lots of horses have multiple entries. I read about one horse trained by Gordon Elliott which has 6 entries!
Agree for the large part Ian but if you like one you know is going to get in you might still be better off backing it now.
If you pick one out one day and the next day it appears in pricewises column or tipped up by “keals” it’s instantly being shortened up on the back of that.
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