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If anyone fancies a bet on Tiger Roll then William Hill still have him at 4-1 in the win any race market despite him being 7-2 for the Cross Country. Obviously they have made a mistake.
Santini for the RSA and Kalashnikov for the JLT are my only bets so far. I don’t think I’ll touch anything else until February at least. If Abolitionist turned up in the Pertemps I’d be interested even if the National is his main target.
My best bet for the festival at the moment has to be <MIN> for the Ryanair. I’m guessing this is his target given Ruby said they want to avoid Altior at all costs. Still think this is the year we see Min’s full potential. We all know how good the 2016 supreme Novices was and ruby has always spoken so highly of this horse. Don’t think he was 100% last season. Seasonal debut was seriously impressive and if I’m right about him being a better horse this season I can’t see anything beating him in the Ryanair
On at
9/1
8/1
7/17/1 is still available
I can very much see this Jaso, no chance he takes on Altior again + he’ll shorten a fair bit still i suspect.
On the horse, he couldn’t quite stay the trip as well as perhaps others will. He will probably be the classiest.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Don’t fancy Min to win a Ryanair. I was impressed with his seasonal reappearance in the John Durkan, but he picked up off a slow pace and Shattered Love was coming back at him. He races far too keenly for me to be confident he will be seen to best effect over 2m5f around Cheltenham which will be his toughest test to date. I think there is every chance it will suit others more than it suits him, and when you look at the race now vs 2 weeks ago there is a far more competitive edge to it. HDB has cited the Ryanair for Monalee, Shattered Love could easily go, as will Politilogue. I also wouldn’t be one bit surprised given recent events if Footpad steps up and Min steps down to take on Altior. Don’t get me wrong, Min definitely has the class to win a Ryanair no question, but if they go off no pace Min will likely take a fierce pull, and if he goes off guns blazing then he has every chance of slitting his throat and being picked up. His best chance would be UDS going off like a lunatic giving him a strong pace to aim at and then hoping class prevails up the hill. I’m not sure it will but GL to all on nonetheless. I took a skybet request a bet at 180/1 that Min wins RC, Penhill wins SH and Willie Mullins trains winner of Mares Novice, so if the latter two come off nobody will be happier than me to be proven wrong.
I agree with all that. He’s an out and out 2 miler. He has plenty of class which means he will get the RyanAir trip but he is at his best over 2 miles with a strong pace. 7L behind Altior is his standard; he’s a 170 horse. The problem is Altior is a 177 horse (IMO) and that’s just the problem. He is a year younger than Altior so maybe there is slight room for improivement. I think the only reason they are considering the RyanAir is because they know he can’t beat Altior. I think Min would beat Footpad in a 2 mile race on Good Ground and I think Footpad would beat Min over 2 mile 5f. If Footpad went to the RyanAir instead of Min it would be a great race; UDS, Footpad, Monalee, Politilouge.
Shattered Love and Balko Des Flos have really upset the form of the John Durkan win
7L doesn’t equate to 7Lbs with most racing jurisdictions
Bets i’ve had the last month or so –
Angels Breath 25/1 Supreme 1pt e/w
Discorama Close Bros 25/1 0.5pt
Battleoverdoyen Ballymore 16/1 1pt e/w
Delta Work RSA 8/1 1pt e/w
Vinndication JLT 10/1 NRNB 1pt e/w
Sire Du Berlais Pertemps 25/1 1.5pt e/w
Stand Up And Fight Foxhunters 8/1 1pt e/wToying with Glenloe for either the Ultima or 4 miler but waiting to see his Plumpton run on Sunday, if he’s off it’ll be 4 miler probably and if not Ultima potentially.
Think i’ve done my dough on the bumper – Malone Road injured and Mt Leinster although stayed on nicely LTO after given too much to do, isn’t a superstar.
My early bets
Gold Cup, Elegant Escape 33-1
Triumph Hurdle, Tiger Tap Tap 14-1
Champion Chase, Fox Norton 33-1 ew nrnb
Stayers Hurdle, West Approach 33-1 nrnb
Ryanair, Fox Norton 12-1 nrnb
Ryanair, Coney Island 33-1 ew nrnb
RSA, Lostintranslation 20-1
NH Chase, Glenloe 25-1
With entries out for The Championship Races at Cheltenham, time to update my list.
As per previous years, I’m doing a book on The Gold Cup. It’s normally an exciting day for me when the entries come out for it, but I’ve never really “felt” it at any stage this season. I haven’t bet as much on it as previous years. Few reasons for that, including being increasingly strict on Antepost stakes, not having a standout strong fancy like previous seasons, and also how the market went in that crucial Nov to Dec period. It’s going to be very hard for me to green out, I really need a few things to go right. I need that badly. Still, as I said, not as much down as in previous years, so it is do-able. Biggest loser by some way was Edwulf, he was one of the few who I actually thought was guaranteed to get an entry.
On the plus side, having written a few of them off, it was, it was a pleasant surprise to see a few of them in there, and certainly not as many non entries as previous years, and with a couple of decent lays in there already, all not lost, and not a total write off…….yet!!!
Exchange Prices listed for The Gold Cup are the top prices taken, but obviously on a few of them at a range of prices.
Champion Hurdle
Western Ryder (Exchange)Ryanair
Bachasson
Willie BoyStayers Hurdle
Midnight ShadowGold Cup
Losing Book with several not goingValtor Laid Laid off
Bachasson Laid 19’s
Tiger Roll Laid 44’sWhite Moon (Any Race)
Blow By Blow (Any Race)When members suggest horses for certain races I can never tell whether they are backing that horse to win the race or whether they are simply backing it as they believe the odds will reduce nearer the time and they will therefore lay it for profit.
Should we have a thread for horses that we believe the odds will reduce on but don’t think they will actually win the race? Think it may be useful for those wishing to have ‘green books’ for majority of festival racesI can only speak for myself Jaso, but I put up all my bets, whether I fancy them to win or not. Anybody can cherry pick their bets, and leave out the ones they’d like to brush under the carpet. For example, My “win any race” on White Moon. I’ll eat my own head if that ones comes in.
In my Gold Cup bets, a few I’ve put up obviously have no chance of winning, and just as importantly will give me little chance of laying off. For example, American, woefully out of form and available at 1000’s, Blaklion, also woefully out of form, and Snow Falcon & Mister Whitaker, who’re both Ryanair bound, and in Snow Falcons case, if he makes the festival at all. Be easy for me to quietly not mention them, but might as well mention them, no point hiding them.
As for a separate thread, just my opinion, but this thread should cover that angle ok, as it’s a thread for all Cheltenham Bets, and always like to see others approach to it.
My Fancies
Supreme~ CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM
Ultima~ TALKISCHEAP 16s & GIVE ME A COPPER 20S NRNB
Mares~ Apple Jade
Champion~ LAURINA
4 Miler OK Corral & BALLYWARDX COUNTRY~ Tiger roll
Stayers~ FAUGHEEN & BACARDYS NRNBAlbert Bartlett~ Carefully selected
Pertemps~ Sire de berlais
GOLD CUP~ BELLSHILL
Stayers – Midnight Shadow 12/1
Hopefully of a huge run tomorrow and then going to the Stayers. Profile is perfect and i really liked his win LTO.Lots of antepost bets for me so far this year. This is where I am at:
Any race – Champ – 1 point @ 7/2
Any race – Commander Of Fleet – 5 points @ 10/1 – 12/1
Any race – Cracking Smart – 3 points @ 14/1
Any race – Delta Work E/W – 6 points @ 16/1
Any race – Dinons E/W – 2 points @ 16/1
Any race – Kalashnikov – 2 points @ 8/1
Any race – Laurina – 2 points @ 2/1
Any race – Samcro – 4 points @ 5/2
Any race – Stand Up And Fight – 1 point @ 11/2
Any race – The Storyteller E/W -2 points @ 16/1Tuesday
Supreme – Annamix E/W – 2 points @ 11/1
Arkle – Cilaos Emery E/W NRNB – 3 points @ 14/1 – 12/1
Arkle – Kalashnikov – 2 points @ 7/1
Arkle – Laurina – 1 point @ 12/1
Arkle – Mengli Khan E/W – 2 points @ 20/1 – 14/1
Champion Hurdle – If The Cap Fits E/W – 3 points @ 33/1
Champion Hurdle – Laurina – 1 point @ 10/1
Champion Hurdle – Samcro – 4 points @ 11/4
Champion Hurdle – Supasundae E/W NRNB – 2 points @ 14/1
Champion Hurdle – Apples Jade NRNB – 1.5 points @ 7/1
Mares Hurdle – Benie Des Dieux – 1 point @ 3/1
NH Chase – Blow By Blow – 2 points @ 25/1
NH Chase – OK Corral – 3 points @ 4/1 – 3/1Wednesday
RSA Chase – Cracking Smart – 1 point @ 20/1
RSA Chase – Next Destination – 4 points @ 12/1
RSA Chase – Santini – 4 points @ 10/1 – 3/1
Champion Chase – Fox Norton E/W NRNB – 4 points @ 33/1
Fred Winter – Lethal Steps E/W NRNB – 2 points @ 20/1
Bumper – Energumene E/W – 2 points @ 50/1Thursday
JLT – Kalashnikov – 1 point @ 28/1
JLT – Master Dino E/W – 3 points @ 16/1
Ryanair – Monalee E/W – 6 points @ 14/1
Ryanair – Aso E/W NRNB – 1 point @ 20/1
Stayers – Cracking Smart – 4 points @ 33/1
Mares Novice – Colreevy E/W – 1 point @ 25/1
Mares Novice – Epatante NRNB – 3 points @ 4/1Friday
Triumph – Adjali E/W – 4 points @ 33/1
Triumph – Beaumec De Houelle E/W NRNB – 4 points @ 8/1
Triumph – Never Adapt E/W – 7 points @ 25/1
Triumph – Pic D’Orhy E/W NRNB – 20 points @ 12/1 (Praying he runs)
Gold Cup – Balko Des Flos – 1 point @ 40/1
Gold Cup – Might Bite – 5 points @ 7/1
Gold Cup – Bellshill E/W NRNB – 3 points @ 16/1
Gold Cup – Thistlecrack – 1 point @ 23.3
Gold Cup – Road To Respect E/W NRNB – 4 points @ 12/1
Foxhunters – Stand Up And Fight NRNB – 3 point @ 7/2Bold are my favourite bets at this point
Supreme Novice Hurdle: Elixir De Nutz 10-1
Arkle Novice Chase: Defi Du Seuil 33-1
Ultima Handicap Chase: Beware the Bear 22-1
Champion Hurdle: Melon 10-1
Mares Hurdle: Benie Des Dieux (double with Epatante)
National Hunt Novice Chase: Champagne Classic 10-1, Blow by Blow 16-1 (win any race)
Close Bros Novice Handicap Chase: Cubomania 22-1Ballymore Novice Hurdle: Battleoverdoyen 14-1 (win any race)
RSA Novice Chase: Santini 12-1, On the Blind Side 16-1 (Both win any race)
Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle: Early Doors 22-1
QM Champion Chase: Diego Du Charmil 33-1 BOG
Cross Country Chase: Tiger Roll 5-1
Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle:
Champion Bumper: Envoi Allen 16-1 (win any race)JLT Novice Chase: Mengli Khan 20-1
Pertemps Handicap Hurdle: A Toi Phil 20-1
Ryanair Chase: Balko Des Flos 10-1
Stayers Hurdle: Samcro 5-2, Cracking Smart 16-1 (win any race)
Plate Handicap Chase: Spirit of the Games 12-1
Mares Novice Hurdle: Daphne Du Clos, Lust for Glory 16-1, Epatante (double with Benie Des Dieux)
Kim Muir Handicap Chase:Triumph Novice Hurdle: Coeur Sublime 16-1, Quel Destin 20-1
County Handicap Hurdle: Eclair De Beaufeu 25-1
Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle: Dinons 25-1, Dickie Diver 25-1, Commander of Fleet 75-1 (DRF and Cheltenham double)
Gold Cup Chase: Might Bite 6-1
Foxhunter Chase: Hazel Hill 10-1 BOG
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle: Pym 25-1
Grand Annual Handicap Chase: Le Prezien 17-1A few lost bets along the way
1) Douvan
2) Claimantakinforgan
3) Great Field
4) Pakora
5) Stay Humble
6) Champagne Platinum
7) Vinndication
8) Apples Jade
9) Glenloe
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