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Conditions ideal for
So Perfect 20/1
Hoping this time she won’t be the bridesmaid and gains the Group 1 win she’s been trying so hard for
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...FORM
Of the last 8 runnings since it was made the Champions Sprint, the winner had recorded a previous RPR of at least 116 over 6 or 7F.That takes out 5 of them and I’ve added Donjuan Triumphant and Librisa Breeze to that as both haven’t achieved that since 2017.
Ground
6 of the last 8 were run with the word Soft or Heavy in the title and 6/6 winners had previously won on Soft ground.That takes out Khaadem, who surely won’t even run in this ground.
Age
7 Year olds are 0/8 and The Tin Man and Brando are both past their best and likely will be retired after this race I would think. They talked about a big effort to get The Tin Man back to somewhere near form in the Haydock Sprint Cup so it will take a mammoth effort to get him to win this I think. He also ran poorly last year after running well at Haydock.ASCOT FORM
5/8 Had either won or finished second at Ascot
8/8 Had run at Royal Ascot in either the Commonwealth Cup, Diamond Jubilee or Wokingham earlier that season.That’s a couple of trends now that would take out Make A Challenge. I think he’s an absurd price at the moment personally on what he’s achieved so far. Place chances maybe in the ground, but can’t see him good enough to win this.
So that leaves 6 horses.
Last years winner Sands of Mali I’ve backed a few weeks ago at 25/1, but it would be some training feat from Richard Fahey after being so disappointing since and he ran terribly at Ascot earlier this year. Maybe this time of year is his time, so 25s was worth it. He’s getting a bit skinny now though.
One Master hasn’t won over 6F since her maiden win and 5 from her last 7 have been run over a mile. She is now a dual 7F Grp1 winner after winning the Foret again last time out and horses that do that over 7F, tend to be 7F Specialists. She seems to fit that category. Can’t discount fully over an Ascot 6F on testing ground, but others appeal more to me, one being Cape Byron who I’ve mentioned earlier.
Hello Youmzain and Advertise, the main 3 year olds, obviously make plenty of appeal. I am in the camp that slightly questions the Haydock Sprint Cup form however. Both the market principals were taken out after decs that day and the 2 others, both didn’t run their races. Khaadem would’ve likely hated the ground and Dream of Dreams missed the break having been knocked by The Tin Man and never recovered. The Tin Man ran well to finish second, but had been running poorly all season, so you could question whether he was back to near his best or just flattered. The third Waldfadd is very average and finished last next time out. The 4th Brando, burst a blood vessel and the 5th Invincible Army is well confirmed now to be below Group1 standard. HY won well, but thats 3 times running well at Haydock now as well. He missed the break a bit at Royal Ascot in the Commonwealth Cup, but he was still only about half a length behind Advertise in the first furlong and had every chance in fairness. Advertise beat him well. I also still have a little thing about him being out of a Kodiac. Kevin Ryan thinks he still has some growing to do and will make a better 4 year old, so if he wins this, he could really be a superstar sprinter. Not being derogatory to Kevin Ryan, but is Kevin Ryan really about to produce a superstar sprinter out of a Kodiac colt? Not so sure.
Advertise is the logical choice, I really would be all over him if the ground was better. He has proven himself to be a real top notch sprinter, but he really does have to prove he can go in this ground and that raises quite a big questionmark at this stage. They say he might even improve for soft, but it’s going to be heavy most likely and he has to prove it. I’ll watch him in the betting right up to lunchtime on Saturday.
That leaves Dream of Dreams again, who I really fancied for the Haydock Sprint Cup, but ran poorly. I really want to discount him, but there are legitimate excuses for both his last 2 runs. From where he was at Haydock after the first furlong, he had no chance really. Back at Ascot where he ran his best RPR I’m considering giving him one last chance if they declare him on Thursday.
For now, it’s
Sands of Mali 25/1 (antipost a while back)
Cape Byron 8/1 EWAdvertise will watch in the betting
Dream of Dreams wait for declaration and consideringAnother cracking 6F Group 1!
For me advertise would be a certainty if the ground wasnt going to be so extreme
Hes now drifted out to 9/2 and if that carries on I will back him despite the ground on the day as he would be 7/4 to beat these in my eyes on gd to soft or better, but loathe to commit at this stage as if connections are going to keep him in training they may not run him and could put him away for next year
Agree with that completely FF. I think there has to be a doubt he won’t run as well, could be why the drift
A piece has just gone up on the RP site (Advertise) trainer(Meade) states he is confident he’ll run well, the ground won’t be a problem
It’s his last race before going to stud they’ve confirmed, so I would say he has to run then really. It’s one thing to try him on cut at home, but another thing to race a stiff 6F on heavy. That said, after those comments the current 9/2 is the best odds we’ll get now I’m sure, so I’m in!
Advertise 9/2
I’m at Ascot Saturday for this and I’ve had a few antepost (Others being The Revenant, Addeybb and Star Catcher) with two here.
Firstly, despite looking like a 7f specialist and a duel Foret winner, One Master is a cracking bet at 8/1 and 7/1 each way in my view. The sodden conditions will be fine for her and she’s gone well at Ascot before. I can’t help but think back to June in the Queen Anne when she looked all over the winner before not seeing out the trip. If this is a gruelling 6f in the soft, as well as the stiff uphill finish of Ascot, they may all start to paddle towards the last half furlong and a stronger stayer such as One Master will be running on for a place or potentially even for the win. I think 8s and 7s is a rock solid each way bet here.
My other bet on the race is Advertise. And it was only placed about an hour ago with Ladbrokes at 9/2 and 19/4 (boosted). Played him each way too as virtually a bet to nothing. The way Meade spoke, he expects him to win. And personally, I’d be absolutely stunned if there’s three horses in the race that will better him on that ground over this course and distance. A three time group one winner, can stay further and is a definite runner. What’s not to like?
One Master E/W @ 8/1 & 7/1
Advertise E/W @ 19/4 & 9/2Reading the article Meade is very bullish, has tried him with cut on the gallops and thinks he may even improve for it
9/2 is a great price
It’s not so much that hes bullish it’s that he thinks he will go on the ground
That makes the price worth taking imo
Advertise is a bit friendless in the betting. Bit of a worry for me. One Master fav on the exchanges. It’s a very open and confusing antipost market. This is another example of going overboard on the ground and not concentrating on form for me. I get One Master has chances but how can she be fav?
Dream of Dreams has drifted out nicely to 16s. That’s a big price for me so I’m in. Last bet on this one!
Sands of Mali 25/1 (antipost a while back)
Cape Byron 8/1 EW
Advertise 9/2
Dream of Dreams 16/1She only has a length and 3/4 to find with advertise on maurice de gheest form and that wasnt on soft ground
But advertise cruised to the front that day if anything hitting the front too soon and idling
main question for me is will she have the pace to stay in contention in a group 1 over 6f, can see her running on into the places but not winning
Advertise is my only real fancy of the day, just disappointed the ground is going to be so extreme
I’m really hopeful for my Sands of Mali & One Master bets. Right now, I’d be delighted if one of them places, though both would be great.
Advertise looks a very big threat to me.
I will try Speak In Colours for that renowned sprint trainer Joseph O’Brien
Trip and ground should be OK anyhow.
B365 offering 30-1 ew 4pl 1/5 odds.
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