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AWAIT THE DAWN is my tip a group 1 horse after last time out. i backed him for next year Irish Champion stakes.I think this is a top class horse.
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Await The Dawn won’t run, shabby, as O’Brien "wasn’t 100% happy".
I think Poet’s Voice looks extra good. Fuisse is my next. With Gitano my third agin the field. But what about Debussy… and… and… and?
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I’ve now backed Fuisse (as well as Vision D’Etat) in the belief that the step up in trip will suit and that his turn of foot could prove decisive.
Fuisse and Poets voice are out and out milers in my eye, then again I thought Canford Cliffs wouldn’t get a mile ..
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I think Poet’s Voice looks extra good. Fuisse is my next. With Gitano my third agin the field. But what about Debussy… and… and… and?
Just my view, Grimes, but Poet’s Voice is probably overrated on his defeat of a half-cooked RVW (the close-up Red Jazz and Beethoven are hardly world-beaters), and I think he’ll struggle to make the first 3. Red Jazz’s run in the opening race may tell us more.
Fwiw, I have it betwen the first 2 in the market; Twice Over lacks a real change of gear, so will have to force it from some way out, which should leave the way open for Vision D’Etat to do him for speed.Vision d’Etat is a 10 to 12 furlong horse.
Twice Over is a 10f, more likely to go down in trip rather than up. So I don’t see how VDT has more speed than TO. Although soft ground could scupper Twice Over’s chance. Did run well enough on good-soft in the Lockinge, but most of his best form is on a sounder surface. Friday times suggest another dry day would cause genuinely good by race time. Twice Over should be (no guarantees) back to his best after a poor run in Ireland. Judging by last year likes the Autumn. Vision d’Etat is yet to prove he’s as good this term, but is fresher than most.Poet’s Voice’s chance depends how he settles. If like last time then has a chance of staying. With stable in such good form could be worth taking a chance at the price.
Will Fuisse be suited by the big open space at Newmarket? Got loose last time. No guarantee he’s as good at 10f. Must be quite a doubt him running to form. If I backed him it would be very late.
Debussy was probably flattered in Canada, but only probably. Might be worth a saver if getting any bigger.
Stable companion Alwaary ran poorly on reapearance. Races (to me) asthough something is hurting.Gitano Hernando has to prove himself on turf and needs to improve. Sri Pekan not good enough. Glass Harmonium is interesting on his first start since a hard race in the Prince Of Wales. Had looked an improver destined for Group 1 glory prior to that.
Have backed Twice Over and Poet’s Voice.
Value Is EverythingCoolmore can’t find a runner, very disappointing.
Thought they had a slow start to the season so they could do better in the final weeks of the season. Does not seem to be working out that way. Looks like another poor fall for Ballydoyle.
Value Is EverythingI can’t see past Vision D’Etat, I think he’s the bet of the meeting. Over 10 to 10.5 furlongs: 8 wins, one 3rd, one 12th. The 12th on Tapeta in Dubai, the 3rd first up last year. Fully tuned and on turf, he’s unbeaten at the distance.
He never wins by much, definitely idles and is quite lazy. This laziness is a worry, but it can be negated by the straight course if he is around the principal chances. At Ascot he slacked off on the turn and ended up last in the straight (from midfield before the turn) despite Peslier’s urgings. But he then powered past Never On Sunday and Tartan Bearer in 300m in a modestly run race. And the Hong Kong race is a real eye-opener for anyone familiar with the runner-up (Presvis not fit for that race).
Twice Over was a close 4th at Ascot and I think he ran near his best. He bombed in the Eclipse 2.5 weeks later (perhaps that’s why) but finished close behind Tartan Bearer there. If you think Twice Over has improved enough to beat VDE, you’d also have to think Byword would beat Tartan Bearer as Vision did, and that Tazeez wouldn’t have finished far from those in last year’s Ascot race (both PoW stakes modestly run). I think Vision is a nailed on favorite with better form and more class. The only criticism you can lay on VDE is that he has never beaten a real star, but he’s beaten very good horses with a bit in hand so that doesn’t worry me.
I think the dangers on the win line are the unexposed horses up in trip. Fuisse looked a better horse last race ridden quiet, and he stayed 10.5f decently enough last year as a 3yo when 2nd in the French Derby. I think Poet’s Voice needs to improve for the distance to beat VDE. Scraping by Rip with the ground in his favor isn’t enough to win this for mine.
Vision by under a length.
Kiss Of death now, sorry but I agree r.e. Vision D’Etat. Have backed him at 9/2 and 4/1.
Twice Over is the obvious danger but I’ve got it into my head that he’s had two hard races (International and Irish Champion which I think was particularly brutal) and I can see him running below form here.
Fuisse won a Group one because Paco Boy didn’t get a run. It was a week event otherwise with Rio De La Plata second and that form isn’t earthshattering. He’ll like the step up in trip but will still have to improve for it.
Poets Voice won possibly the weakest group one of the season with the exposed pair Red Jazz and Beethoven too close up for that form to be any good. Makfi bombed out and Rip is becoming disappointing and to me was feeling the effects of that brutal Irish Champion Stakes and was running over a trip too sharp for him. PV has to improve for the step up.
Gitanno Hernando has no form on turf that entitles him to be winning a Group 1.
The others cannot surely be good enough.
Even at his peak Twice Over would struggle to beat Vision D’Etat who will handle any ground, loves the trip, has been aimed at the race, is fresh, the French have a great record in this race and he has the brilliant Peslier aboard. I’m not surprised he’s the horse currently being backed. If he runs to form he’s going to be mightily hard to beat.
Which of course he now will be.
Exactly. That is the story that was peddled when the Derby fiasco unfolded.Nobody wanted to think the unthinkable when St Nicholas Abbey failed to fire in the Guineas.Sickness is the only explanation for the disasterous year.But nobody will say it. Saved only by the Group Ones won by the Australian horse.
Impossible race.
TO – Good enough but over the top?
PV – 10f?
VD’E – Hard to knock, but short enough given improvement seems to have stopped, may have dodgy legs and probably needs a sprint finish to show his best
F – Improver, needs to improve again, 10f?
D – What is the American form worth?
GH – American form? Grass?
SP – The Glorious form looks solid. Place claims at 33/1 but might just as easily not be placed given the opposition.
Glass – Doesn’t look good enoughWatch only.
ANOTHER race (thats three in a row now) where nothing has come from off the pace to mount a challenge (other than Frankel). Its proving mightily hard to make ground in these conditions and that won Twice Over the race as he’s a prominant sort. Peslier needed to be more prominant on Vision D’Etat but couldn’t because the horse was too keen and the lead he had to give Twice Over proved decisive.
Debussy flattered as everything suited him setting his own pace on the rail, rather like Roderick O’Connor in the Dewhurst.
An admirable win for Twice Over. But how should the admiration be apportioned? How much to Henry Cecil for having the horse better than ever after a couple of very tough defeats. How much to Tom Queally for easily the best tactical ride from any of the jockeys in the race, and for learning from his mistake in the Prince of Wales earlier in the year. (We all make mistakes, it is what we learn from them that matters most). How much to the horse himself for making the absolute most of his ability by being tough, honest and versatile?
An admirable win for Twice Over. But how should the admiration be apportioned? How much to Henry Cecil for having the horse better than ever after a couple of very tough defeats. How much to Tom Queally for easily the best tactical ride from any of the jockeys in the race, and for learning from his mistake in the Prince of Wales earlier in the year. (We all make mistakes, it is what we learn from them that matters most). How much to the horse himself for making the absolute most of his ability by being tough, honest and versatile?
Well said about Queely. He’s fast becoming my favorite jockey. Not particularly in terms of ability but personality, graft, his ability like you mentioned to learn form his mistakes, his modesty and, not least, his ability. He appears very intelligent which is something to be admired. Can’t say enough about the lad. Very impressed since his association with Cecil and before, mind.
ANOTHER race (thats three in a row now) where nothing has come from
off the pace
to mount a challenge (other than Frankel). Its proving mightily hard to make ground in these conditions and that won Twice Over the race as he’s a prominant sort. Peslier needed to be more prominant on Vision D’Etat but couldn’t because the horse was too keen and the lead he had to give Twice Over proved decisive.
Debussy flattered as everything suited him setting his own pace on the rail, rather like Roderick O’Connor in the Dewhurst.
What pace?
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