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Despite his setbacks this season, I’ve never doubted he could beat anything in Europe over 12f on soft. Hugely frustrating (and expensive antepost wise) that he has missed two Arcs and will never get the chance to really prove his talent. An exceptional racehorse.
Well done today’s winners, by the way.
He hated Epsom, they kept going back there, but he never liked it. He’s too big, and his stride is so long, he needs a flat track, and soft ground. Give him them, and nothing would get near him. He’s also an Autumn horse clearly.
In private, I bet you JonnyG would tell you he wishes he had his time again with Cracksman.
Vindication for the horse who has been much maligned this season, the vibes before the race were night and day compared to how he was at Royal Ascot. That side on camera view when Frankie asked him and he swept by Capri gave me chills.
He will probably still go down as a horse that was never given a proper chance (due to over cautious connections this year) to show what he was really capable of and in his heart of hearts if AO is honest with himself I think that he will look back and rue the decision to miss last year’s Arc.
Think they could have a hard time making him into a high class flat stallion – he reminds me a little of Old Vic (who was also a lethal galloper in soft ground – see his French Derby win) who actually went on to become a very good NH sire.
He will probably still go down as a horse that was never given a proper chance (due to over cautious connections this year) to show what he was really capable of and in his heart of hearts if AO is honest with himself I think that he will look back and rue the decision to miss last year’s Arc.
The horse has ran like he wasn’t interested for most of the season……Can’t really pin it all on connections!
As Ginge says, ground also plays a part.
If the horse was doing what he did today, during the season, he’d have justified his place in the ARC.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I meant last years Arc at Chantilly when they had soft ground and he was coming off the back of a course and distance win in the Neil (on soft ground) and Gosden I vaguely remember came up with some sort of comment about him not being suited by the course, so they were going to Ascot instead!!!
As I have said many times before, he was never given a chance to prove that fast ground was the issue at Royal Ascot – you could see quite clearly his mind wasn’t at the races that day and yet he still finished 8L clear of the 3rd. His run in the Ganay on unseasonably quick ground in a time nearly 1sec faster than standard (where a certain Cloth of Stars was beaten the thick end of 5L) would indicate that whilst not his preferred conditions, he would still be effective enough on it.
Yes, he is a much better horse with cut but to me that is what makes the decision to miss Chantilly even more frustrating, as I believe he would have beaten Enable by 2 or 3 lengths had the owner had the stones to run him.
You’ve got to look at what Cracksman was at the times of each Arc and what the opposition was like.
In 2017 Cracksman would’ve been going in to the Arc not even a Group 1 winner… He was ONLY a dual Group 2 winner who (it’s important to remember) was yet to show just how good he was… Even those of us who thought he was a Group 1 winner in the making had no idea he’d become a Timeform 136 horse. AND running against a filly Enable who Cracksman’s trainer knew very well how good she was – one of the best fillies we’ve EVER seen. Had he lost the Arc and got injured he’d be without a Group 1. It was therefore only common sense to go for a Group 1 that he had a really good chance of winning.For those who think Stoute would’ve done things differently, Crystal Ocean – a horse without a Group 1 victory – missed the Arc in favour of the easier option Champion Stakes. Unfortunately for my ante-post book, running against a horse who’d not been seen since June (when not getting as close to Poets Word as he had) and with doubts about Cracksman’s current form and temperament… Rather than against one who’d beaten him at Kempton (was in form) and known to be far more straightforward/consistent. Now as luck would have it, had Crystal Ocean actually run in the Arc (and run to form) on Timeform Ratings would’ve beaten a below form Enable. But hindsight is a wonderful thing and wouldn’t criticise Stoute for his decision. CO below form today.
This year Cracksman would’ve been going in to an Arc on unsuitable ground, with question marks about the worth of last year’s Champion and his temperament. Connections can be forgiven wanting to finish on a high. Had he lost the Arc and not recovered in time it would’ve undoubtedly hit his stud career hard. Again – from what was known beforehand – it was the common sense option.
Value Is EverythingIn private, I bet you JonnyG would tell you he wishes he had his time again with Cracksman.
I agree with this 100%. Not saying that he did anything massively wrong with Cracksman, but with the benefit of hindsight he could have won a few more G1s than he actually did. He was the best horse in the Irish Derby but was given a poor ride, and then he won the Voltigeur setting better closing sectionals than Ulysses did in in the International. I firmly believe he would have won that International doing handstands, and had he won there he probably would have booted on to Leopardstown and won that too. Although, had he won those three in a row there would have always been the temptation to just retire him then and we wouldn’t have seen him at all this season.
The reality of Cracksman’s situation is becoming more and more clear. Gosden had Enable in the yard, hugely well treated in the 2017 Arc and stil looking good after coming back from injury this season.
Last year Gosden discovered (or had reinforced) that Oppenheimer is an owner who never questions his decisions. The trainer can be pretty sure he’s the only danger to Enable and that he’d be a hot favourite to win the Champion Stakes.
Why not – as a trainer – grab two big races rather than one?
This year, Enable bounces back nicely at Kempton and in what looks a comparatively mediocre Arc (if Cracksman doesn’t run) he plans to do exactly what he did last year. Oppenheimer, predictably, rolls over.
Reality is that Cracksman was never seriously being prepared for the Arc. I had thought his price a few weeks ago of 8/1 to 10/1 was a crazy overreaction to a comparatively disappointing season. I strongly suspect now that the key bookies knew that Cracksman was never likely to run.
Any doubters on that theory should note Gosden’s post race comments today, when he pretty much summed up his approach to the horse’s season – not a single mention of the Arc.
“He won the Prix Ganay in explosive style and I don’t think he was quite the same after that – I think a few things were bothering him. Obviously, he got very distracted at Royal Ascot by the girls coming back from the Windsor Forest and then we went for the King George, where it was too firm, and the Juddmonte [non-runner for the same reason] then packed in and freshened him up to come here, where he was back to his best.”
An unusually loose-tongued Gosden pretty much admitting he’d done Oppenheimer over again, as well as Cracksman’s fans and bettors.
I don’t blame Gosden in the least. His priority is to do what is best for his yard – he has done that in magnificent fashion.
Oppenheimer is the villain of the piece. Had he shown some backbone and nous, he’d have fought for what was best for the horse rather than what was best for Gosden and Dettori.
Not convinced the arc as a race would have suited his temperament. They made the right move IMO
I really can’t agree more Steeplechasing. Yes luck with ground etc has played a part. But that decision to not send Cracksman to the Arc as a 3yo, because of Enable being well treated… Is the absolute critical point in Cracksmans career. I’m certain history would be totally different, if they had made the opposite decision that day. If the horse is in any other stable, he went for the Arc, and we saw the race of the ages IMO.
I did think he was a superstar Ginge actually, and posted to my friends on my Faceache, after his first run, to back him at any price they could for the following years Derby. I had a fortune on him. I’ve watched this horse so intensely because of that. At the time, it was a massive worry if the step back to 1m2f in last years champion would suit. In any other yard, he went for the Arc, and he won it I say.
I agree with you too Degaussed. Cracksmans whole career seemed to revolve around Enable. I’m sure they wanted to get the Derbys so badly. When that mission failed, mainly due to ground & track problems… He was in Enables shadow. We saw today again what he is actually capable of. They should have kept him in training as a 5yo I think! He would finally get to his incredible potential, and be a top stallion as a 6yo.
Even those of us who thought he was a Group 1 winner in the making had no idea he’d become a Timeform 136 horse.
Speak for yourself, Mark.
His Voltigeur performance told me he was on his way to being a superb middle distance horse. The power, balance and acceleration he showed that day (evident again in some fine side-on shots on ITV today) was all you needed to see to conclude that he had everything required, and that his sire had passed a huge amount of his own talent on to Cracksman.
As far as his going preferences are concerned, they’ve been in much more focus than merited by evidence. He has run once on fast ground – 2nd to Poet’s Word less than three weeks after a gruelling race in soft ground at Epsom, where he reportedly gave himself a serious blow on the head leaving the stalls.
His campaign has been as bruising to me as that of Vautour. I hate to see once-in-a-decade horses (at least) not being given the chance to show their best.
For me there was a bigger risk in dropping back 2F in trip on a track with a relatively short straight for a big long striding horse against running in an Arc over the exact course and distance he had won over in pretty much with the same ground conditions.
The not winning a G1 race and going to an Arc for me wasn’t an issue as he was clearly better suited to the race conditions than a lot of the rivals who were either not running at their ideal trip and/or out of form at the end of a long season.
But whatever it is now all water under the bridge, it was just nice to see him come back to his best and a nice send off for the horse who has now emulated his sire by being a two time winner at the meeting.
“The horse has ran like he wasn’t interested for most of the season……Can’t really pin it all on connections!
As Ginge says, ground also plays a part.
If the horse was doing what he did today, during the season, he’d have justified his place in the ARC.”
Ahhh, come on Jack, after our earlier conversation on here… He just put up a performance, which is probably going to see him crowned as the best horse in the world. You thought he was a crazy price earlier mate at 5-6, and he’d probably get beat. I said he was value, and about to put up a massive performance. He done that and then some. I thought you’d be crowing, you had 5-1 on the biggest certainty of the whole season
And if you have any doubts Ginge about the Arc distance. Watch that race again. Cracksman has a bit of trouble laying up with them, even on that ground, with the blinkers. But he’s so super strong at the end of the race. I think he’d be even more impressive over 1m4f, on that ground with those blinkers. What a horrible shame we never got to see it. He would have won last years Arc, and then probably bypassed this years in favour of the Champion, because of the ground. If we’d had a wet couple of years, he would be being proclaimed as Pegasus. It was the hottest Summer on record this year. Frankie has already come out and said he hates the heat.
I stand corrected.
Cracksman put up a Group 1 performance in a Group 2 race in the Voltigeur, Joe. I backed him for the Champion on the back of it. Think Timeform rated him 126 for that. With sectionals and the way he won; yes, was “all you needed to see to conclude that he had everything required”. ie To be something like a 130 to 132 Roaring Lion standard. If that’s what you call a “superb middle-distance horse”, I agree with you. But although a 136+ was possible, the evidence (from only the Voltigeur) of him being a 136+ exceptional racehorse (ok I’ll say) in the vast majority of people’s opinions just was not yet there. In beating Venice Beach (a 117 rated horse) by 6 lengths – personally can’t see how Cracksman can be rated a probable 136+, no matter how much you might think he’s got in hand. But you might be right, Joe. However, that is only your opinion. Surely you can’t blame the trainer for not having as elevated opinion (that very few people agreed with) after that Voltigeur?You might think the ground issue is over-blown. I’ve made similar comments in earlier posts about Cracksman; I’m not fully convinced either. There are other possibilities other than needing soft. But that’s what they are, “possibilities”. ie Probabilities matter when assessing a horse’s overall chance – and the fact remains that Cracksman’s best two performances have been on soft ground in late October over 10 furlongs. Had it been good-firm today he still may well have won, but I can assure you he’d have been a much bigger price. ie Because – on good-firm – going in to the race the possibility/probability of winning would’ve been less. Connections wanted to go out on a high, wanting a higher probability of winning… and that’s what they got by running here.
I agree with you that once Enable had won at Kempton the decision had all but been made, to miss the Arc with Cracksman. It made perfect sense to do so. Which is why I took 5/1 for the Champion Stakes a few days after Kempton and no doubt the reason for him drifting in the ante-post Arc markets too. Also, his owner might have been keen to aim Cracksman at the Arc after the 2017 Champion; and after an impressive reappearance… But would he really be as insistent after two disappointing performances and Enable’s impressive reappearance? Yes, there might be other excuses for those races, but imo if Oppenheimer was persuaded by Gosden he was rightly persuaded and deserves credit for changing his mind.
Yes – as it was – if he’d run in the Arc, and if he acted on the ground, and if he’d run to form – he would’ve beaten Enable and Sea Of Class. But Cracksman has shown his brilliance today and am glad I saw it.
Value Is EverythingI think Cracksman very probably would be equally effective at 12f, Naus’. Just a fairly small possibility he isn’t. Wouldn’t judge distance requirements for this particular racehorse on being pushed along early, being lazy has often been pushed along even as a three year old racing at 12f – and laziness/to keep his mind on the job reason for blinkers today. Going, blinkers and time of year all more probable reasons for his running better today; combination of the three making it an ideal race for Cracksman.
Value Is Everything
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