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Would’ve thought this accumulator type of bet on betfair usually gets better the closer you get to the race; so wouldn’t expect the odds to be good in that market just yet.
Value Is EverythingYes Ginge, but they rely on enough people, just seeing it, and fancying it, and then backing it now at a bad price. It’s the same as what the supermarkets do putting things that ‘look’ like bargains on the front isle as you walk in. They are not in fact the bargains they seem. It’s subliminal advertising. They have been at it for ages. All of these specials type bets, are their version of this. Heavy advertising, splashed across the front of the website as deal… It’s a steal, you need to bite their arm off.
Your case with Frankel, it very much in the minority mate.
The thing about Cracksman is his best performance of his life comes when beating Poet’s Word, who to me has become a better horse this year, or taken advantage of their being a slight less competitive 10f-12 group of horses earlier in the season. He was getting 4pds that day, and on the whole has been frustrating this year whilst still winning 2 G1s.
Crystal Ocean has run twice to 127 (RPR) is 4pds higher rated by the official handicapper. He will handle the ground and has come here quite fresh without being Cracksman “fresh”.
Do we believe Cracksman is all of a sudden going to show last year’s run again?
I say this after taking 5s on the horse, but why is he 5/6 while Crystal Ocean is 11/4?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Because Jack, he has needed blinkers and soft ground plus this time of year. He finally gets it all tomorrow. I’m very much of the mind, that he’s just an Autumn horse, that needs blinkers and soft ground. Give him them, and he is going to run this lot into the ground tomorrow. That’s why he is 5-6. If the real Cracksman shows up, which I think he will. That price is still value. His really big run as a 4yo comes tomorrow IMO. He could have gone close to winning two Arcs also IMO, if Enable had not been around. Part of the reason that JonnyG has sent Roaring Lion to the mile race, is because again IMO, he knows an on song Cracksman chews him up tomorrow on that ground with the blinkers. RL will win the mile too. Cracksman is the bet of the day. I wish I had your 5-1! The only thing that beats him tomorrow is between his own legs, but the blinkers should sort that. Things have not worked out for this horse in his career. I backed him after his debut maiden win at Newmarket, for Epsom the following year. He was a big baby, who’s grown up into a horse whom has his mind more on the opposite sex than racing. I honestly believe he’d be a machine if they looped his balls off, but that’s never going to happen. They know now to keep him well away from the fillies before hand, I think we’ll see the real him tomorrow with a bang.
Nausered, whilst i see they’re are reasons to suspect an improved Cracksman, ie, conditions. This season has differed from last season and he hasn’t looked the same horse for a lot of it.
With all the ifs and buts, he shouldn’t be the price he is IMO, and i wouldn’t be surprised if they became closer tomorrow, mind you, if a few of JGs horses win, the multiples will keep the bookies worried enough to keep him short.
How he’s 5/6 i’ll never know! What is the “real” Cracksman? The one-off 131 RPR at the end of last year or the mid to low 120 RPR horse, that he has run to a lot more often? That’s the question and personally why he’s a bonkers price.
For me, he hasn’t travelled well through his races this year to win an Arc.
Happy with the 5s nonetheless, as a price is a price!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I’ve got 5/1 Cracksman too, Jack; and I agree with you. I get that he’s probably best on soft ground, blinkers are probably going to help his temperament. Probably going to be kept away from the fillies, probably won’t hit his head on the gate, probably be better in the Autumn and is probably showing the old sparkle at home… But today’s odds are that of a horse presuming all those things, not of probability. At their very bests Crystal Ocean‘s form isn’t as far short of Cracksman’s either. At their very bests the Gosden horse should only be a couple of lengths in front of Stoute’s… And yet Cracksman has run nowhere near that rating this year.
With soft ground and stayer Capri in the field, this is bound to be at least a truly run race if not strongly run – a test of stamina at the trip. So Crystal Ocean should be fully effective here. Unless the trainer is on a Group 1 treble or four timer come off time (which is possible) I fully expect Cracksman to be odds-against. In a 100% book I’d have Cracksman 11/8 (42%) and Crystal Ocean 2/1 (33%) – 75% 1/3 the pair.
Don’t care who wins though, as long as one of them does – also got 6/1 Crystal Ocean.
Value Is EverythingRight then Cracksman, you let me down very badly in the Derby for a lot of money. Today you can pay me back! I have a small fortune running onto him now from RL. Don’t let me down again CM
Backed Rhododendron e/w in this. She’s been hopeless since the Lockinge but looks like AOB’s stable has shaken off whatever was ailing them and she won’t mind the ground. 50-1 for a dual G1 winner in an 8 runner race seemed too tempting to pass over!
Thank you Ginge. I had no treble up though mate. The treble I had was La, RL & CM.
That don’t matter. The doubles I had were FAR bigger on CM & RL. I had 3 x win £100 doubles, and a £200 double (about my max bet). Best price was 4-1 on RL on the biggest one, one at 7-2 too.
Along with a 25-1 winner last night, it’s all going rather well at the moment.
Sorry but that just annoys me really! What might have been…
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Can’t agree with Joni & SC more. I said earlier in thread this horse would have gone close in two Arcs had Enable not been around (and he had better luck with ground too).
Come on, when things are right, I say he’d had more than give Enable something real to think about. He’d have beat her.
What a shame they were both with the same trainer.
Going at Longchamp was good, bordering on good-firm.
By far Cracksman’s best couple of runs have been on soft ground and at 10f.
So no, Cracksman probably would not have won this year’s Arc.Value Is EverythingThat’s why I said better luck with ground Ginge. If Cracksman had been with say Stoute (insert any top trainer), and there had been two normal soft ground Arcs… I say he’d have beat her.
He never saw 1m4f with optimum conditions. If he had, he’d have beat her. He stays 1m4f very well indeed.
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