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Ok Cracksman through in his best performance to date in this last year, but why is he 10/11 and CO 3/1?
I’ve a antepost on Cracksman, but quite shocked at the prices
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!He is too short for me Jack but I think he will win. I would love to see a big performance from him.
I have bet two in this, Capri to win at 13-2 + Verbal Dexterity at 20-1 each way.
Soft ground, head gear? We will see the real Cracksman again on Saturday in my opinion and he will run them into the ground. Any odds against is real value. I have him doubled up with Roaring Lion a good few times.
Coral have a lengths handicap priced up on this race and it’s brilliantly intriguing.
6/1 the field – Cracksman giving CO 1.25L, Capri 3L etc.
Very good if you can’t find a bet in the win market and still want an interest.I’d beware of that type of bet, Kev.
Corals are betting to 106% in their normal win/each way market.
With 6/1 and the same number of runners only 114% in that lengths market.If they were 13/2 all horses they’d be working to the same over-round as their win/each way market.
Value Is Everything‘They’ always have ‘us’ over in any type of specials bet. However tempting they may seem at the time, as Ginger quite rightly states, they will always be more skewed in their favour, than markets where they are competing against every other bookie. Specials, are always special for the bookie.
This came up recently in a PM conversation with VTC. I really fancied a horse for the NH season. I’d backed him at 25-1 for the Hennessy, and 125-1 for the Gold Cup. VTC got 400’s on the double. But another firm was offering just 250-1 for the double. Now they are basically saying, that if he wins the Gold Cup, he’ll have been an even money shot for the Hennessy on current prices, six months in advance of him even winning that GC. I know it’s slightly different, as they are related, but it’s the same dodgy specials odds again from them in essence. I will not back that double, I’ve lumped on both outcomes heavily as singles instead. I’d rather win what I should, in the event that my bets come off.
As an aside Kev, I can’t get a penny on with Corals, in anyones name, that’s been the way for donkeys lol.
To be fair to Corals, it’s worth having an alternative for those wanting to back eg Cracksman but don’t like betting odds-on… And it’s more difficult for an odds compiler to work out a lengths handicap than it would a normal win market. Harder a race is for an odds compiler to work out the larger an over-round needs to be (margin of error is larger). So can see why they’re offering 6/1 – it’s just that larger over-rounds make it that bit harder for the punter to profit too.
Some specials are worth considering. I remember backing Frankel to win the Queen Anne by 10+ lengths, when he already had the form to beat all the field bar Excellebration by that margin. Only took one horse to run below his best to collect on a 9/1 (if memory serves) winner. Connections also wanting to emphasise to the Aussies (who brought over Black Caviar to Royal Ascot that year) just how good Frankel was – therefore likely to be pushed out all the way to the line.
Value Is EverythingI see what you’re saying Ginge. But if Kev thinks that Cracksman will win by 6l, or you were certain that Frankel would win that Queen Anne by 10l, I still say you’d had both got better value, by having your mortgage on them to win at best prices.
In most cases I’d agree with you Nausered. I don’t often do doubles and trebles for that very reason, keeping to win and each way singles. However, with the Frankel case he was 1/10 to win. Not that I bet at that type of odds anyway, but even if he did have more than a 91% chance of winning, it wasn’t by much. Where as imo @ 9/1 imo had a far more than 10% chance of winning that particular race by more than 10 lengths.
I did hear Corals were going 25/1 for Gosden to have four Champions Day winners, if only they still allowed me a bet…
Value Is EverythingBetfair have a market for the John Gosden fav yankee – which obviously includes the four-timer
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/horse-racing/market/1.149827623?nodeId=27088631
That’s pretty bad on there too MTOTO. The Cracksman/Roaring Lion double is just a fraction under 5-1. It’s a lot less on there after deductions etc.
Agree Naus AND you can probably get best odds guaranteed too in case one of them drifts!
Exactly Raymo. Bet365 etc are all BOG now, and a fraction under 5-1 on that double. It’s far shorter as a ‘special’ on betfair. Exactly as I said earlier too, the bookies market is one made up of two individual markets, combined into a double by me. They are being competitive in those markets to drum up trade. If they link them together as a headlined ‘special’, the odds will always be far worse.
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