Champion Hurdle – can Katchit win?

[Katchit]

OK – let me start by expressing bias… I think we can, but I read a load of views on various horses including Katchit on this forum and thought I’d invite the debate

This season Katchit has found it hard at the very top level of hurdling, but he hasn’t been far away.

We knew going to Newcastle that the track might suit others better, and for some reason he was uncomfortable before the race – for those that follow him, you will have seen a very different horse sweating up in the parade ring. That said, we finished a little over 3 lengths behind Harchibald

Alan got no work into him between that and the Bula and we were hugely surprised that Osana won the race – not cos he’s not good but we didn’t realise that at the time and so were very focused on beating Sublimity, Straw Bear and Afsoun – assuming that we’d be at the head of affairs should that happen – of course we were 10 lengths up on the others but couldn’t get to Osana. Alan’s reaction was that he could get him better for the Champion (and we know from last years Triumph hurdle what he can do when really fit)

Since then, Straw Bear’s beaten Harchibald, Afsoun’s beaten Straw Bear and Sizing Europe has wiped the floor with the Irish challengers (ex Sublimity). On the latter, the only flaws in the form I can see are the speed of the race and the proximity of Lounaos who was one of the biggest talking horses of 2006.

We face Osana, Blythe Knight and possibly Straw Bear at the Kingwell in a little over a week – that should tell us more about our chances.

What confuses us at the moment is why are we utterly friendless? (apart from FOF in this forum)

Do we really have no chance?

[Gazs Way De Solzen]

I’m on Katchit if that helps.

I personally think he has got great claims for Cheltenham and i’m hoping for a very big race come March.

[Zoso]

I dont think he can become the first 5yo champion hurdle winner since ‘See You Then’ won the first of 3 in 1985. The age stat in recent times puts me right off him and I think he falls just a touch short of the very best at the top level this year, would have a shout for a place I should think though.
Its a tough puzzle to solve I think. I cant get Sublimitys win last year out of my head and just how easy he won it. It was one of the most visually impressive performances I have ever seen (I may be blinkered as he was my best festival winner last year). If he turns up in the same form Sublimity is the one they all have to beat but that may be a big if.

[yorkshirepudding]

In a word no, horses coming off a juvinile campagn can be written off in their 4-5 yrarold season, they are not strong enough when the hips are down on champion hurdle day.

[thejackal]

All season Katchit has struck me as a horse that will be very hard to keep out of the first 4 in the champion – however he has never looked to me like the winner. We know he’s game, will stay up the hill and is very consistent -he is probably the most reliable hotse in the field

I do however think that triumph hurdle horse get a little over rated as the horses that they race against are generally not as good as the main novice hurdles. A bit like the brit insurance hurdle, or whatever its called now, the winner may wll be over rated due to lack of strength in the opposition – or course both races can still thro up a champion but the form of the majority of the fields generally doesn’t stack up in the subsequent seasons

I certainly hope Katchit runs well but would really like to see him improve quite a bit to be a justified winner – maybe he can!

Good luck Katchit!!

[Cav]

I doubt it. Granted I haven’t seen him in the flesh but physically he doesn’t look to have developed very much this year. You’d also have to be very forgiving of his last 2 runs and the Champion Hurdle is not a race for excuses.

Good luck though.

[LetsGetRacing]

I backed Harchibald (as well as Al Eile, annoyingly, although to small stakes) a few weeks ago and have since had a sizeable bet on Sublimity. So for me it rests firmly between those two, but I don’t think Katchit is as far out of it as would first appear.

I’ve written a lengthy Champion Hurdle preview for my website, and whilst I’d expect him to grab a place at best he can’t be totally discounted (Osana had the run of the race in the Boylesports.com International and was receiving weight from Katchit, then a four-year-old).

[Anonymous]

Katchit

Personally, I don’t think your horse is good enough, or has the scope, to place in this – or any other – Champion Hurdle.
I sincerely hope I am wrong, but that, imo, is a realistic view based on logic rather than sentiment, and is posted in your very best interests.

[MikkyMo73]

Katchit,

So that’s two people who knew that Katchit wasn’t right before his Bula run. I confronted FOF on this subject many times, and despite him saying "I will asnwer you via PM" he hasn’t.

So come on, please tell us – just who knew that Katchit wasn’t right before his Newcastle run – just who saw him sweat up so much that you couldn’t back him, to the extent that he was backed off the boards and went off a very well backed favourite

What do you, and Fist of Fury Know about his well being before the Newcastle run, that nobody else (even the stable) seems to know

Mike

[Fist of Fury 2k8]

Apologies Mike I thought I had mentioned it in one of our PM’s will send today.

If I ws training Katchit this season he would have won ziltch so far. I have read the horse is too small hasn’t trained on not good enough etc.

If Katchit had gone racing 100% fit in his 3 runs this season I would have been amazed……the horse you have seen so far this season is not the horse you will see at Cheltenham. How many times have horses like him ran races like he has but come Champion Hurdle day they are a totally different proposition. I would bet any of you 1 penny to a pound he hasn’t been anywhere near his best this season at any point.

I think there’s a distincy lack of imagination here and you should go back to last years Triumph and watch the race and then have a look at what he did a few weeks later at Aintree. Then come back and tell me you have seen the best of Katchit this season. He is being trained totally differntly this season with one race in mind IMO. Perhaps his trainer thinks another tough season like last, due to his small frame is not what the horse needs?

As most of you know I have bet 2 horses for the race Sizing Europe and Katchit and nothing I have seen this season makes me think I am not on the first two home and nothing will. Katchit loves the course and when he goes for home there won’t be many go with him Osana is over rated, Sublimity as I have said a dozen times won’t get home in this years race, Harchibald just can’t win unless he changes his attitude……..I think SE will win have done for a long time but I would be a very worried man if I hadn’t backed Katchit as he ‘s the one I fear most.

[davidbrady]

Another punter who refuses to accept that the horse who won him a bit of money last year won’t be winning the bigger, better, stronger one this year

I got the impression that he is the owner or at least connected.

[Himself]

I cannot see Katchit being good enough to beat the likes of Sublimity or Sizing Europe. So, the answer is no.

Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

[clivex]

He’s run twice against PROPER hurdlers in all-age races

Brave inca was beaten in six all aged hurdle races before winning. by what at the time were PROPER hurdlers

The assumption is that because of Katchit’s size, further improvement is impossible. I think that could be a bit simplistic to say the least.

Never underestimate a horse that loves Cheltenham, but having said all that I still think theres quite a gap to make up on SE and possibly Osana too

[Fist of Fury 2k8]

There have been all sorts of horses at all sorts of ages won the Champion Hurdle. Katchit was a prolific winner last year and was pretty mature by 4 year old standards. You don’t knock back to back wins at Chelt and Aintree if your a weakling.

There’s a big heart in that horse and I think he’ll shock everyone come March. Many many 5 year olds have run exceptionally well in the Champion Hurdle and it has been proved later they were probably at their best when they did. Kirriemuir who won as a 5yo was an exception he finished 3rd in it when he was a 4yo. He ran moderately all season but on the day came right back to his best and won at 50/1.
I am not saying Katchit in the same class as Sir Ken, Persian War or See You then who all won at 5yo nor would he be as good as Night Nurse who also won at 5yo…..what I am saying to discard Katchit because you think he is too immature or because he’s a 5yo I think you do so at your cost…….he was an exceptional 4yo. Wasn’t he just about fav for the race when everyone said he was the most likely challenger to Sublimity.

Katchit proved time after time he was a good horse last year Sublimity proved he could beat two dead horses up the Cheltenham hill and hasn’t been sighted since…….I know which I would rather be on

PS any chance I can change my mind between the last two flights of hurdles

[Zoso]

You will change your mind alright, when 3 fences from home Phillip Carberry starts looking over his shoulder again and laughing at his rivals.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKUy9HY-Otg

[Anonymous]

I must admit I am really looking forward to this race – which is a surprise as 4 months ago I thought it would be a decent but unglamerous race.

Now, of the big races of the frstival, we have a potential match race in the GC, the QM looks relatively weak (but interesting) and the fav in the World Hurdle looks a good thing.

So this could be the most interesting of the lot.

As far as Katchit goes – I like him and think he is very game. I do not think he will be disgraced and is well worth his place in the field. if he does place then I would imagine next year he would be campaigned more actively (as per his triumph year) and he may just stand a better chance next year.

Though – I love the horse and if it is upsides any horse jumping the last then it will battle like hell up the hill and may just sneak it. Just not sure about him really. Looking forward to seeing the trial and how he gets on.

Just wonder if it could be Harchibald’s year. Could not back it with the stable issues at the moment – but if it turns around and he goes there in good form – just think he maybe the best horse in he field if maybe the most unstable! We all know if he gets in any battle up the hill he will not win so i would bring him wide and late and try and put his head in front half way up the straight. Risky but think that is why he is 8’s and not 5’s.

[Katchit]

Katchit,

So that’s two people who knew that Katchit wasn’t right before his Bula run. I confronted FOF on this subject many times, and despite him saying "I will asnwer you via PM" he hasn’t.

So come on, please tell us – just who knew that Katchit wasn’t right before his Newcastle run – just who saw him sweat up so much that you couldn’t back him, to the extent that he was backed off the boards and went off a very well backed favourite

What do you, and Fist of Fury Know about his well being before the Newcastle run, that nobody else (even the stable) seems to know

Mike

Mike

We didn’t go there knowing he wasn’t right, at that time we were chasing the million. My view on him not being himself came from the fact that I’ve been to almost every one of his races and have never seen him get fractious before a race – he normally walks around quietly with his head down then goes and does the business on the course.

Alan was pleased with his run at Newcastle as his first against the big boys (and because it meant he could take the Bula route rather than the Christmas hurdle). We just felt that he didn’t look relaxed or settled before the race (maybe he didn’t like it in the cold north east or didn’t enjoy a night away from his own bed)

I know that Alan got no work into him before the Bula because he told us that he’d get him better for March… he didn’t get up the hill in the Bula for the first time and I don’t think the race was that quick so we put it down to fitness
the other thing that we have to bear in mind is that Alan is looking after him this year – it’s a tough year after his campaign last year, we obviously want him to be in the elite hurdling division for years to come not just this March so we’ll see how fit he is which I think will make all the difference

Regardless of whether he was right or not before these races he’s not been niles out of contention.

I don’t know whether I’d back him if it didn’t feel like I was cheating by backing something else – we are worried about how good Sizing Europe might be, Osana looks strong and quick and of course Harchilbald could win it on the bridle if it goes his way

I agree with aftershock – this looks like one of the most open races regardless of whether you think it lacks quality

[Author]

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