Champion Hurdle

[Ben_Bernanke]

So how many of us have backed the great one? The next coming of Jesus, Frankel over jumps or you could even call him our very own Spring father christmas.

All rise for the Hill!

[Nathan Hughes]

Why haven’t Paddy Power paid out yet.?

Blackbeard to conquer the World

[Ben_Bernanke]

That is an absolutely tremendous question Nathan, made me laugh and I needed that so thank you!

[Nathan Hughes]

Its looking a great free ticket from racing rewards

The Hill vs Honeysuckle
Jonbon winning the Arkle on the Bridle
Facile Vega slicing through the pack like freddy krueger would the queue on a busy London underground in a bad mood.

Can’t wait

Blackbeard to conquer the World

[Kris]

Ben, Nathan, I’m on at a whopping 3-1 and 7-2, which is a million million miles from my usual type of bet. It’s just the type of gimmick Paddy Power do, but sadly my bet is not with them.

I think that he’s absolutely the real deal, and is easily the best hurdler I’ve seen in my time. Unfortunately the majority of the betting population thought the same after that Supreme stroll, hence the silly Antepost price.

I won’t be in a rush for a bet like this again, it’s very much a one off.

[Ben_Bernanke]

Same as me Kris, never really back anything ante-post that’s shorter than 10/1, but agree completely he looks like one of those once-in-a-generation horses. Although he is insanely short now at around 11/8 I still plan to put him in a few doubles over the next few weeks/months as long as his price remains around evens.

[Ben_Bernanke]

And Nathan lets hope they all come in, the longer I stay on this forum the more I realise you’re all incredibly astute and shrewd punters! Some absolutely cracking ante post bets over the years and this year looks no different!

[Cork All Star]

Backed him at 3.55 on Betfair on the Sunday after Cheltenham. I thought that would be it but Betfred then offered a standout 11/4 later that day, so I topped up.

As has been said, I do not usually get involved at short antepost prices either but I had to make an exception. If this horse continues in the same form as last season, I think he will start at least 1/2 on the day, even with Honeysuckle against him.

I assume Henderson will start him off at Newcastle. Can’t wait to see him again!

[IanDavies]

I took 3/1 – incredibly rare for me to have a long-range ante post bet at such odds, but it’s not every day I think I’ve seen the best Supreme winner since Golden Cygnet (and I include Brownes Gazette in that) and my sense of historical perspective meant I had to have the bet.

I still believe Constitution Hill will not only win the 2023 Champion Hurdle, but go on to be one of the all-time great Champion Hurdlers, up there with Night Nurse, Monksfield, Istabraq and Persian War.

The time was amazing – especially for a horse who’d also won a Tolworth on Heavy – and the annihilated runner up Jonbon is a good horse, he won at Liverpool and Aucenrisque franked that form subsequently.

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[FinalFurlong91]

Playing devil’s advocate

The Supreme completely fell apart

Dysart dynamo and jonbon went way too fast

And he has to prove he can run like that again, some don’t

I do think he will win

But he is an absolutely brutal price atm

[Cork All Star]

I note FF’s opening remark. In answer, I don’t think the Supreme fell apart. However, the other point about can he back up a sublime performance is my only worry.

Maybe he will not have to run to anything like that level to win. However, those big efforts can sometimes take a lot out of a horse. I think we saw that with Baaeed at Ascot. I don’t accept the ground excuse at all.

I still have the faith in Constitution Hill. He has already shown he is the real deal – but I will be a bit nervous watching him when he reappears. There is going to be a lot of hype. I will be happy with a good, solid performance first time out.

[Mike007]

As I said during last season’s festival the distance of Constitutional Hill’s win was exaggerated due to Jonbon going with Dysart Dynamo rather than ‘relaxing’ and following him like Constitutional Hill did.

Comparing the times between the Supreme and Champion Hurdle is again not a consideration for me as the Champion Hurdle wasn’t run like the Supreme. He should be a 2-1 shot imo at this moment having not run yet and to prove the Supreme wasn’t a one off.

I saw that Henderson had him pencilled in for the Ascot Hurdle over 2 miles 3, with Epatante going Fighting Fifth. Of course those plans could change. Will be interesting to see if he lives up to some of the hype he receives.

[befair]

There is something in our human psyche; we always look ahead rather than living in the moment. Two proven champions, one unbeaten, often unchallenged but always able to find plenty when pressed, another the most impressive GC winner for years, proven around Cheltenham, who absolutely destroyed the field form the last fence. Yet both are only second favs to two unproven novices, both yet to run in open company.

[IanDavies]

This is why I don’t think the Supreme fell apart.

When a performance (and rating) looks unbelievable I like to imagine the winner wasn’t there.

Jonbon wins it by two and a half lengths from a decent sort in Kilcruit in a time still 1.37 seconds faster than Honeysuckle who carried 4lb less in the Champion Hurdle.

I think everyone reckons the Supreme is well up to standard and many might feel an OR of 147 for Jonbon underrates him.

Jonbon then follows up at Liverpool and fourth placed Aucenrisque, beaten over 20 lengths, wins off 133 subsequently.

This Jonbon is a decent Supreme winner, now up to 152 and I reckon a few people are asking why he isn’t rated higher given his Supreme time and maybe he could win a Greatwood off that mark.

Back to reality – people only think Jonbon isn’t all that because the best hurdler since Istabraq WAS there wiped the floor with him.

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[Mike007]

I’m not disputing Jonbon isn’t a potentially very good horse and i am not saying he would’ve beaten Constitution Hill, all i am saying is he would’ve finished closer to Constitution Hill if he didn’t try to ruffle Dysart Dynamo so far out. I wouldn’t describe the race as ‘falling apart’, just wary of times and winning distances comparisons to the Champion Hurdle when the races were run so different.

I remember when Andy Holding, tipping expert for Oddschecker and professional gambler, watched on 2 screens the handicap win of Sire Du Berlais against the Stayers Hurdle on the same day. He was all over Sire Du Berlais for the following year’s Stayers Hurdle because Sire Du Berlais passed the post first. I wasn’t convinced and indeed Sire Du Berlais lost.

So often i’ve seen or read clockwatchers wetting themselves in hurdle races but then it don’t work out in the championship races.

I’m not against Constitution Hill, i just think 11-8 is skinny atm. And i’m someone who don’t mind taking a short price at times. Maybe for him to win 2 races like i did with the A Plus Tard bet might be the way i go.

[Nathan Hughes]

Honeysuckle is a great champion but they don’t go on forever
every year they become a little more suspect and open to being beat be a fresh challenger
Henderson has a magic wand and will be waving it

Blackbeard to conquer the World

[Mike007]

Can’t argue with some of those sentiments Nathan. Honeysuckle has probably been my favourite NH horse since she beat Benie where i kept the faith but good things come to an end eventually as they say.

[Author]

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