- This topic has 27 replies, 16 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 6 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
My Tent or Yours would have won the Supreme had the race been run over the Champion Hurdle course .
It was run over the same course or am I missing something??
This thread is not TRF standard.
EGS is all of a sudden an Our Conor fan after the horse wins him a few quid, after previously stating MTOY would "jizz on Hurricane Fly".
JJM writes off MTOY after he does a passable impression of Binocular.
Everyone is entitles to an opinion gents, but this red-top like writing off of this-and-that is poor form…
Great point there, Peruvian Chief.
I am annoyed with the blinkered and overconfident tones that are often used in this section. Certain posters populate their opinions with mouldering sound-bites like "sure to be in the frame", "absolute banker", "ludicrous value", "get on" and "you have been warned!". They sound like Thommo! How silly they look when these mortgage jobs get beaten.
There is nothing wrong with having good confidence in your decisions, but touting horses like certainties or no-hopers is not realistic and simply
annoying
. You don’t
know
which horse is going to win – you just
fancy
one. It is much more sensible to show at least a degree of tentativeness in your opinion in most races.
Compare these two examples:
Personally, I think My Tent Or Yours is ungenuine. I base that on his runs in the Aintree Bumper, Ascot race against Taquin De Seuil and run up the hill against Champagne Fever. I don’t think he finds anything off the bridle, but has such ability that he will still win many races in spite of his quirk. I don’t think he can win a Champion Hurdle on the bridle, but will be adept at finishing second.
Contrast this to what I have seen from some posters along the lines of:
"Doesn’t get up the hill. Won’t win."
This thread is not TRF standard.
EGS is all of a sudden an Our Conor fan after the horse wins him a few quid, after previously stating MTOY would "jizz on Hurricane Fly".
JJM writes off MTOY after he does a passable impression of Binocular.
Everyone is entitles to an opinion gents, but this red-top like writing off of this-and-that is poor form…
Done my ante post beans on My Tent or Yours since getting 25s, but he didn’t come up the hill.
Keep faith in Grandouet!
Although Our Conor was the one of the most impressive winners of the whole week (second only to Sprinter), i wouldn’t be drawn in to the hype surrounding his Champion Hurdle claims.
It’s clear that he is a really fluent and quick jumper, but i feel that the form of the race was misleading.1) Only two horses got into the race, and that was Diakali who made the running and Our Conor, who admittedly received a good ride.
2) The ground was definitely in his favour. It had rained for about 15 minutes before the off so the ground was slower than the advertised good to soft, soft in places. The placings were filled by horses suited by slow ground.
3) Look through Our Conor’s career form, all recognised form is on ground varying from heavy to yielding. The only piece of form on good ground was when he was 9th on his 2-y-o debut. He hasn’t run on quicker ground since.
To summarise :
I wouldn’t be backing Our Conor, unless he proves himself on faster ground than what he’s won on so far. Of course, he’s a fantastic talent and is a slick jumper, but if he comes back to Cheltenham, where it should be good ground and he hasn’t run well on the faster turf then he has no chance.
Interestingly Our Connor has been bought by Barry O’Connell.
Danny Mullins is retained jockey to O’Connell.
Looks like young Mr Cooper won’t be a happy bunny at the prospect of losing the ride. I can’t say i’ve been overly impressed with young Mullins, although he’s looked ok around Dundalk!Although Our Conor was the one of the most impressive winners of the whole week (second only to Sprinter), i wouldn’t be drawn in to the hype surrounding his Champion Hurdle claims.
It’s clear that he is a really fluent and quick jumper, but i feel that the form of the race was misleading.1) Only two horses got into the race, and that was Diakali who made the running and Our Conor, who admittedly received a good ride.
2) The ground was definitely in his favour. It had rained for about 15 minutes before the off so the ground was slower than the advertised good to soft, soft in places. The placings were filled by horses suited by slow ground.
3) Look through Our Conor’s career form, all recognised form is on ground varying from heavy to yielding. The only piece of form on good ground was when he was 9th on his 2-y-o debut. He hasn’t run on quicker ground since.
To summarise :
I wouldn’t be backing Our Conor, unless he proves himself on faster ground than what he’s won on so far. Of course, he’s a fantastic talent and is a slick jumper, but if he comes back to Cheltenham, where it should be good ground and he hasn’t run well on the faster turf then he has no chance.
Dessie Hughes says Our Conor will be better on good ground. I don’t think you can use any flat form when determiming his chances of winning the Champion Hurdle, as it is his hurdling ability that makes him stand out. Remember he is only a 4-y-o, can you remember a 4-y-o that hurdled this good? With just slight improvement, he will win the Champion Hurdle and the 5-y-o statistic, does not apply to this horse, as he is streets ahead of any hurdler of his age.
I think Futurism’s point about the ground is a fair one. Timeform rated the going ‘soft’. The horse is unproven on good ground although his action suggests a sound surface won’t trouble him – I suspect he will be even better on it, but that remains to be seen.
Even if easy ground turns out to be his preference, he’s pretty much guaranteed to get that in the CH, with Cheltenham’s stated policy of ground no faster than good to soft on day one.
He’s a very short price all right, especially for a 4-y-o, and it’s often folly to judge a horse on such a visually impressive performance (I resisted the post-race big quotes for the CH on that basis).
But I’ve looked at his races a few times now and one thing that might have accounted for at least some of his improvement at Cheltenham was the hill.
He travelled supremely well, highlighting another massive benefit for him – his demeanour. Few horses who travel with such menace, especially juveniles, do so without racing keenly (My Tent or Yours would be a fair example and he is two years older than OC).
Our Conor seems most tractable, at least under Bryan Cooper. Although impressive in his previous races, what stood out, for me, last week was that when he met the rising ground, he began drawing away with his jockey still sitting still. Once he was 5 or 6 clear, young Cooper had a look through his legs then tapped the horse down the shoulder – literally tapped him with little more than a wrist flick – and OC moved up a couple of gears.
Landing over the last Cooper crouched and pushed with hands and heels and Our Conor cruised even farther clear. On reflection it was probably more visually impressive than Golden Cygnet’s romp in The Supreme 35 years ago, albeit GC would have beaten better horses.
By dint of winning the Triumph Our Conor chalked up another key attribute for future festival winners, he himself became a festival winner. I’m not a stats student, but I’d be surprised if there were a stronger or more profitable stat to follow in jumping than backing past festival winners to go in again.
He’s hugely exciting. I’m sorry Cooper has lost the ride. Pocket-wise, I hope The New One beats him and wins the Champion, (like The New One, OC is a very athletic mover for a jumper) But as a jumps fan, I’d love to see Our Conor become the hurdling Frankel.
I wouldn’t be too concerned about the ground. isn’t he by jeremy, who won a jersey stakes at royal ascot?
Actually one of the things that strikes me with our connor, is that because he has such a high-cruising speed he’ll always be very well suited by a very fast pace, so festival races should be right in his ballpark.
whether he’ll be as impressive off a slow pace, remains to be seen. Personally I think he’ll disappoint at some stage prior to next year’s champion, in a race run off a slow gallop, and his price will drift out.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.