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Annie Power is, at her best, a 2.5 mile hurdler without a race to suit at Cheltenham
Doubt she’s quick enough for two, breeding is unclear for three but it would appear to be the best chance of success
Time to gingerly get off the fence…
I had another look at the Ryanair Hurdle, mainly to focus on the run of Our Conor, but I ended up looking at Hurricane Fly up the run in. What struck me was that he appeared to be badly idling. After shooting clear at his leisure I think he was just dossing in front. Considering Mullins feels there’s plenty of improvement in him, the two in behind have a fair bit of improvement to make to bridge the gap.
I’ve always tried not to think with my heart when it comes to Hurricane Fly and Cheltenham. He’s given me many great days since 2008, including his first Champion Hurdle, but I filed him as a horse to take on at Prestbury Park since his defeat to Rock On Ruby (that went well for me).
I’ve maintained that Hurricane Fly is not at his best at Cheltenham, but I’ve never had a concrete reason for this. I’ve often wondered why: the ground, the travelling, the course? However, he’s won on all sorts of ground in Ireland and he traveled to France as a youngster and won. He’s won doing handstands left handed at Leopardstown and the undulations at Punchestown have never seemed to bother him. So I went and watched his three Champion Hurdles again.
2011
When he won his first Champion Hurdle, he traveled beautifully, something which he didn’t do on his two appearance at Cheltenham since. He was always buzzy as a novice and he still had a tendency to be keen at this stage, and this race was no different. People can crab the form but I think it was a mighty run from Peddlers Cross. I thought Hurricane Fly would draw away from him but in hindsight he used up a lot of energy early in the race which must have effected his finishing burst.
2012
He was beaten in the 2012 Champion Hurdle, his only defeat in Britain or Ireland since finishing third in the Morgiana behind Solwhit in 2009. It was well known that he had a far from straightforward season, but when he won his prep at Leopardstown any fears about his well being seemed allayed. Ruby Walsh still blames himself for the defeat but I don’t think he’d have won even if he had been a bit closer to Rock On Ruby and Overturn. It’s hard to say if Cheltenham was the reason for the defeat, because if anything his next run was worse, scraping home from Zaidpour at Punchestown. If there had been a Go Native or Rock On Ruby in the field that day he may well have been beaten there too. Because of this, it may be a lazy presumption (one I’m guilty of myself) that the course or good ground were the reasons for his Cheltenham defeat that year.
2013
He won again last year but was probably lazier than he’s ever been. He was off it early enough and being pushed along by Ruby Walsh, but he gradually made his ground and as they turned into the straight he was back on the bridle. He looked like he’d run clear but he put two or three lengths between him and the rest an the distance stayed at that more or less to the line. In my opinion he was idling just as he did at Leopardstown at Cristmas.
Willie Mullins has stated many times in the past that they’ve tried to get Hurricane Fly to relax more. This is evident in his running style. In his first Champion he was still the buzzy animal that did everything without being asked a question. In recent years though he needs to be shaken up to wake up. On heavy ground it seems less evident as others flounder around him but on quicker ground he’s made to work a bit harder. He was briefly given a few nudges in the Ryanair Hurdle (I don’t the ground was as bad as some made out, most jockeys said it was yielding)and quick as anything he was upsides Our Conor on the bridle. It was something similar to his run in the Champion last year except far less profound. It was interesting that Mullins has said that this season they’ve changed his training to try get some of the buzz back in to him: in essence he’d become too relaxed.
I’m no longer certain that he doesn’t go well at Cheltenham. It’s very possible that there are valid reasons why he’s been less impressive (visually at any rate) in Champion Hurdles than in some of his Irish races.
He’ll probably need to improve on this effort to win the Champion Hurdle, but I think it’s probable he has improvement in him. I’ve already said I think he should be favorite but now I’m convinced of it. He’s very much the one to beat.
Great write-up THM.
The facts are in the form book that The Fly is a winning machine like no other 2m hurdler of recent times.
I cannot fathom why he is crabbed so often when his rivals have frequently been beaten and he is virtually unbeatable. But this debate has been done to death and some can’t see the wood for the trees.We should make the most of him while we can because sadly, age is not on his side. He looks as good as ever currently so punters should not look a gift horse in the mouth and wise up to the fact that Hurricane Fly is the champion, the rest are mere pretenders.
Come 11 March 100/30 could be looking very big indeed, nevermind 13/2!!
Time to gingerly get off the fence…
I had another look at the Ryanair Hurdle, mainly to focus on the run of Our Conor, but I ended up looking at Hurricane Fly up the run in. What struck me was that he appeared to be badly idling. After shooting clear at his leisure I think he was just dossing in front. Considering Mullins feels there’s plenty of improvement in him, the two in behind have a fair bit of improvement to make to bridge the gap.
I thought it took more out of him than first appeared. Was really filling his lungs after. And i thought AP had a bad day on Jezki.
A race run like that in 2012 and i think TNO beats him.
Time to gingerly get off the fence…
I had another look at the Ryanair Hurdle, mainly to focus on the run of Our Conor, but I ended up looking at Hurricane Fly up the run in. What struck me was that he appeared to be badly idling. After shooting clear at his leisure I think he was just dossing in front. Considering Mullins feels there’s plenty of improvement in him, the two in behind have a fair bit of improvement to make to bridge the gap.
I thought it took more out of him than first appeared. Was really filling his lungs after. And i thought AP had a bad day on Jezki.
A race run like that in 2012 and i think TNO beats him.
I don’t quite get all the fuss being made over Jezki being "hemmed in" by Danny Mullins. Yes, that is what happened, however, Jezki didn’t appear to be stopped in his tracks as such, merely McCoy had to pull him out wide whilst maintaining forwards momentum. There’s no doubt it cost him a little ground, but IMO nowhere near as much as is being made excuses for him and to give something else for the HF knockers to cling onto.
Had made a couple of errors prior to that and with only five runners it’s criminal to be short of room at a crucial stage.
I’m reminded of poor Darlan at Doncaster. I now there was a fierce headwind and AP wanted Darlan to be covered up but he was pushed into the last from behind other horses and it seemed to confuse and unsettle the horse into the fall. An accident and i am in no way blaming AP for the horse’s death but in such races i think it’s better to be in a clear position
Over Christmas i watched Ruby go for a gap on Urano that was never there and the horse slipped up when having every chance. No such mistake at the weekend when it hosed up.Geraghty is unbeaten on Jezki and likely to be without a definite ride for Henderson.
Good point about Geraghty. He looked a hell of a horse under him in the Royal Bond and last April at Punches.
Hurricane Fly has encountered a truly run race 3 times in his career (twice on the flat and once over hurdles) he has lost all 3.
Im sure this hasn’t escaped the others and the fact the NTD is thinking about a pacemaker suggests he believes its the best way to get him beat.
However its not as easy as just blasting off as Countrywide Flame showed last year when he went off far too fast and ended up running on fumes at the end.
If they can ensure a truly run race then I’m convinced that Hurricane Fly will be encountering his least favourable race conditions and will get beat, if they don’t go fast enough he will win again as he has done so often.
Hurricane Fly has encountered a truly run race 3 times in his career (twice on the flat and once over hurdles) he has lost all 3.
Im sure this hasn’t escaped the others and the fact the NTD is thinking about a pacemaker suggests he believes its the best way to get him beat.
However its not as easy as just blasting off as Countrywide Flame showed last year when he went off far too fast and ended up running on fumes at the end.
If they can ensure a truly run race then I’m convinced that Hurricane Fly will be encountering his least favourable race conditions and will get beat, if they don’t go fast enough he will win again as he has done so often.
What would you call last seasons Champ Hurdle if not truly run?
My take is that they went off far too fast (countrywide flame lit up by first time head gear) and they had no chance of sustaining the pace and it collapsed, I would point to the top speed of Hurricane fly which was 135 which is the lowest that a winner has needed to record to win the race in the last10 years (135,167,149,163,153,157,145,173,152,155)
I would consider and I think I’m not alone in this that the TS needs to be within 7lbs of the RPR (i.e. Rock on Ruby recorded an official rating of 170 and TS of 167 and RPR of 171, when beating the fly)
Its one thing quickening off a modest or slow pace but totally different doing off a truly run race. As mentioned Hurricane fly has encountered this 3 times and lost all 3 but setting the race up this way is not easy, as it proved when Overturn tried to do it for his stablemate Peddlers and didn’t go quick enough and then when Countrywide flame tried to do it last year (coz there was no recognised pace maker) and went to fast and no one on the pace could sustain it, leaving it for Hurricane fly to outstay them really (remember Ruby was very early to work on him trying to keep pace).
Hope this helps although it doesn’t make the result of the next Champion Hurdle any clearer!!!!My take is that they went off far too fast (countrywide flame lit up by first time head gear) and they had no chance of sustaining the pace and it collapsed, I would point to the top speed of Hurricane fly which was 135 which is the lowest that a winner has needed to record to win the race in the last10 years (135,167,149,163,153,157,145,173,152,155)
I would consider and I think I’m not alone in this that the TS needs to be within 7lbs of the RPR (i.e. Rock on Ruby recorded an official rating of 170 and TS of 167 and RPR of 171, when beating the fly)
Its one thing quickening off a modest or slow pace but totally different doing off a truly run race. As mentioned Hurricane fly has encountered this 3 times and lost all 3 but setting the race up this way is not easy, as it proved when Overturn tried to do it for his stablemate Peddlers and didn’t go quick enough and then when Countrywide flame tried to do it last year (coz there was no recognised pace maker) and went to fast and no one on the pace could sustain it, leaving it for Hurricane fly to outstay them really (remember Ruby was very early to work on him trying to keep pace).
Hope this helps although it doesn’t make the result of the next Champion Hurdle any clearer!!!!Fair point, but I recall Rock On Ruby sporting the headgear and blitzing off. As you say, no easy thing to set the race up and unless there is a genuinely good enough horse from the NTD yard to sustain the pace long enough, the pace will either be muddling or TNO will be a sitting duck if having to do the hard yards like at Kempton as there doesn’t appear to be anything else in the field that would tow them along.
Yeah agree. Ironically it might be the Mullins trained Un Des Seaux that could set the race up as a truly run race, which I believe will make things a whole lot more difficult for Hurricane Fly. He has made all in his last 2 runs and a repeat of these tactics will make for a fantastic renewal of the race.
I just can’t see that NTD has anything good enough to do the job, you could argue Mad Moose on some of his flat form but it would be an absolute no starter (no pun intended!!). Maybe Im missing a horse but nothing seems to be an obvious candidate for the job. You’d still need a touch of class to do it properly.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/9112163/ricci-tough-call-over-annie-power
Rich Ricci with some interesting points on Annie Power.
Un De Sceaux impressive again but probably expected. However, i sense some surprise in Mullins during the subsequent interview.
The point Mullins made about Carberry trying to go with UDS and being smashed and struggling to get home whilst Ruby was restraining UDS – i think he now knows he’s got something to think about.That is some horse.
It is going to be some Champion Hurdle if they all turn up. Ruby post-race on Un De Sceaux: "If he was to turn up, I don’t think The New One will need a pacemaker".
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