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I’m thinking that half the horses in the race are going into it with their jockeys keeping half an eye on what all the other horses are doing tactics wise and another horse might just come along, run his race and win. And that might be Melodic Rendezvous. Definately backing him ew.
Mullins convincing the owner not to run Un De Sceaux is farcical. Utter joke. In twelve months time it could be on the decline, unfit…
Mullins convincing the owner not to run Un De Sceaux is farcical. Utter joke. In twelve months time it could be on the decline, unfit…
Couldn’t agree more with you Mark, in Nathan’s Starmix Challange Champion Hurdle Top Three, I had him down for second behind The New One. I think he is top notch right now, and not to run him at 6 years old doesn’t make any sense. I can only think it is for reasons not put forward by Mullins. It’s a strange one
Mullins convincing the owner not to run Un De Sceaux is farcical. Utter joke. In twelve months time it could be on the decline, unfit…
Couldn’t agree more with you Mark, in Nathan’s Starmix Challange Champion Hurdle Top Three, I had him down for second behind The New One. I think he is top notch right now, and not to run him at 6 years old doesn’t make any sense. I can only think it is for reasons not put forward by Mullins. It’s a strange one
Hugely disappointed Un de Sceaux and Annie Power aren’t running. Owners must be raging/Willie must be very persuasive
Un De Sceaux not being at Cheltenham doesn’t make sense to me, well it does because he’s never experienced anything like it, so why chuck him straight in for a possible Champion Hurdle spot? Was he just a back up pace setter in case the likes of Captain Cee Bee and Jezki weren’t running??
His last 3 races he’s started at 1/16, 1/12 and 1/14. No 6 year of his quality should have to run in so many mismatched fields. I don’t know why he hasn’t been stepped up in quality, but I’m looking forward to seeing what he can actually do!
I don’t really have a banker for the festival, but
The New One
is as near as it gets.
I really think this horse has the best tactical pace of all the runners. If they don’t fanny around and have him near the pace, he can then kick away and I don’t think anything can catch him.
They need to be positive with this horse.
Who knows if MTOY will get up the hill? If Hurricane Fly wins again, he has to be up there with Istabraq. I’ve never really fallen in love with him (perhaps like many punters), but he is a superstar in his own right.
I’m hoping TNO will at least be 3-1/7-2 come the off…all seems skinny at the top of the market at the mo…
Zip
When people mention exceptional performances I think of the flat and demolition jobs like Frankel’s 2000 Guineas or Harbinger’s King George, and races that made me think ‘how the hell did they do that?’ like Zarkava’s Vermeille or New Approach’s Derby.
When I then think of that in terms of the National Hunt one race always comes to mind: Hurricane Fly’s novice hurdle win at Leopardstown when he beat Go Native. Wow. Just one of many glorious memories I have of this exceptional racehorse.
I’m not having a bet on this year’s Champion Hurdle but it will give me more pleasure than any winner if Hurricane Fly wins. The horse doesn’t seem to get the recognition he deserves and it’s likely in a few years we’ll look back and think jeez he really was something. I’ve never been brought to tears by a horse before but even writing this I can feel myself welling up a bit. Go get’em Hurricane. Whatever happens, thanks for the memories – hopefully there’s a few more to be created yet
Rightly or wrongly, Un De Sceaux won’t be running, but maybe this will be the making of him.
Paul Nicholls said that Kauto Star missing his Arkle year was probably the best thing that happened to the horse. It allowed him to develop without being held back by a hard race. Likewise, Willie Mullins was forced to swerve Cheltenham with a young Hurricane Fly. Both horses went on to show great longevity at the highest level and are now the winningmost Grade 1 horses ever.
There is a definite whiff of favouritism towards the Fly here, but we might be celebrating this in five years if Un De Sceaux takes charge of the division.
All the value seems to have gone for this race. Here’s my 100% book:
Hurricane Fly 3/1 25%
The New One 3/1 25%
My Tent Or Yours 4/1 20%
Our Conor 9/2 18.25%
Jezki 14/1 6.75%
Melodic Rendezvous 25/1 3.75%
Petit Zig 132/1 0.75%
Grumeti 400/1 0.25%
Captain Cee Bee 400/1 0.25%MTOY is available @ 9/2, but that’s not enough of a margin for error and if the ground wasn’t quite as good as they say I’d have MTOY and OC changing places.
Value Is EverythingRightly or wrongly, Un De Sceaux won’t be running, but maybe this will be the making of him.
Paul Nicholls said that Kauto Star missing his Arkle year was probably the best thing that happened to the horse. It allowed him to develop without being held back by a hard race. Likewise, Willie Mullins was forced to swerve Cheltenham with a young Hurricane Fly. Both horses went on to show great longevity at the highest level and are now the winningmost Grade 1 horses ever.
There is a definite whiff of favouritism towards the Fly here, but we might be celebrating this in five years if Un De Sceaux takes charge of the division.
Not sure what you mean by take charge? He will be seven next year and that is relatively old to be making a Champion Hurdle debut – and that assumes he is fit and well which is a big if. The reason we know so little about the actual merit of the horse is due entirely to the pathetic campaign masterminded by Mullins. He had ample opportunity to find out how good the horse was had he so wished. Far better that everyone found out how good he was now rather than waiting another year. If he thrashed Hurricane Fly just live with it, you quite possibly have a great champion. What’s the worse thing that could have happened, he is pulled up? At least then a decision could be made as to whether to continue hurdling or switch to chasing. Mullins has just wasted a season in pot-hunting.
I think you’re totally right, Stilvi – it has been pathetic and not at all sporting to see Un De Sceaux campaigned this way.
All I mean is that this nonsense might make the horse better and last longer
IF
he is a top level performer, which hopefully we will get to see at some point.
Didn’t Willie Mullins say the other day that the reason his other good hurdlers wouldn’t run in the CH is because they can’t win? That seems to suggest that he thinks the Fly is a good deal better than them, doesn’t it?
Well, I’ve changed my mind about twenty times today alone on this race. I never imagined I would come to this conclusion.
I think
My Tent Or Yours
is clearly the fastest horse in the race. He tanks along on any pace itching to go a little faster, with even The New One at full stretch looking like half speed for him. I am prepared to admit I was wrong about MTOY. I thought he was dog who didn’t have the heart for a finish, but could it be that he just didn’t stay?
A year on from that iffy defeat to Champagne Fever, he looks to have matured: physically, mentally or whatever it was he needed. My Tent Or Yours is bred for a mile really (out of an Ela-Mana-Mou mare, by Desert Prince). He had to race on the softest ground of the entire festival on the opening day last year, probably explaining why his keen running style took its toll up the hill. Another positive from that run is that Nicky Henderson’s horses often improve from defeat in the Supreme, with apparent non-stayer Binocular going on to be a staying-on third and powerful winner in the big event. The ill-fated Darlan may have trod a similar path too.
His win over The New One at Christmas really was something new. For the first time, MTOY found more off the bridle. Sure, The New One losing momentum at the final flight helped, but MTOY had plenty of time to down tools if he wanted to. This year’s allegedly good-to-soft ground will help him get home and old Captain Cee Bee’s front-running will help him to settle. It’s a mind-bending race that could come down to split-second decisions, but I think he has a good shot.
My Tent Or Yours for me.
Final piece of value on the eve of the race: EW Jezki at 7s without The New One – Betvictor
Good luck all
Joe
Final piece of value on the eve of the race: EW Jezki at 7s without The New One – Betvictor
Good luck all
Joe
I’d have thought 10/1 with is better than 7/1 without Joe.
Victor is betting to a much larger overround on the betting without market – despite one less runner.
Value Is EverythingIf he is indeed a soft/heavy ground horse as many suspect, then I’m going to look pretty stupid. But my suspicion is that stamina is his forte.
Good luck
Five of Melodic Rendezvous’ six wins over jumps have come on heavy going. It seems too much of a coincidence that he made no impression (when a lay for me and second favourite) on good ground in the Fighting Fifth behind My Tent Or Yours. Some stamina will be required in the Champion, but with question marks regarding the pace in the race, speed will be the more important asset on the prevailing ground.
I was all over The New One for this from early last season but I’ve now seen him lose three races I thought he might have won and the resolution issue has to be on one’s mind. It is hard to see why he is the same price as a double champion with a CV as long as his tadger.
Gun to the temple and the name My Tent Or Yours emerges from the quivering lips.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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