Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › Champion Hurdle 2010
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March 15, 2010 at 09:49 #282414
Ginger
Love it when you start telling people what ‘form’ means, when you obviously haven’t a clue yourself.Well here I go again Reet.
It’s pointless measuring one horse against another unless one takes into account the circumstances on the day and the previous form of the protagonists.
Exactly. You measure a horse’s form over hurdles at 2 miles, up against his other form over hurdles at 2 miles. As I said we don’t need to judge the horse against the win at 2m3f (or indeed his flat form) we know how good he is in those "circumstances" because he’s run at 2m over hurdles enough times to judge him on that. His Elite run up against the Totesport Trophy is a fair comparisson, don’t you think?
Mamlook had indeed finished placed in the Cesarewitch, as he had the previous season, when also placed in the Ascot Stakes. All 3 flat races over further, and stiffer tracks, than the Elite, which ought to give you some clue about the horse’s nature.
Am not saying Mamlook is as good at 2m as he is at 2m3f. Just judge him on the 2m hurdle form. Staying flat horses can often run very well at only 2 miles over hurdles Reet. Royal Gait "won" an Ascot Gold Cup and then won a Champion Hurdle. Sea Pigeon won an Ebor etc.
Also, having finished closer in the previous year’s Cesarewitch, he then proceeded to be beaten 28l in the 2m Greatwood, just 4 weeks later. He has also only won one race since his novice hurdle days – over 2.5m, on soft ground at Ascot.
I remind you Reet, you said Mamlook was "half-fit", his Ces second suggests otherwise. Mamlook needs a fast run race at 2 miles (granted) which this was, look at the time! His win at Ascot was 2m3f incidentally. You seem to think a win is automatically better form than a placed run, it is not.
Horses invariably stay further over hurdles than they do on the flat, and both Celestial Halo and Mamlook are proven stayers in the latter sphere.
Both Mamlook and Celestial Halo may be equally as good, if not better over further, does not mean they are not capable of high class / top class form at 2 miles if they have proven themselves to be so.
Whiteoak never ran on the flat, but her only win since her novice days was over 3m1f.
That 3m1f race was very slowly run, (slow by over 27 seconds on good-soft) hardly gives a base for stamina comparrison. She won the Cheltenham Mare’s hurdle (as a novice) at around 2m 5f. Yet arguably put up an even better performance at Wincanton over 2 miles in the Kingwell. Second to Ashkazar. A run that persuaded connections to run in the Champion.
3 stayers contesting a 2m race around a sharpish track, it’s inevitable that one should win, unsurprisingly the one closest to the pace.
To use your word Reet, bunkem!
Celestial Halo’s whole hurdle record shows him to be a grinder over 2m, having not shown a burst of speed over the distance since his novice days. If a hen lays an egg in a pigsty, it might be wrong to assume a swine will hatch.
WTF do you think he’ll be wearing blinkers?The blinkers should help. I agree Celestial Halo is a "grinder", there are those with a better turn of foot in a sprint. But this is no sprint (unless they go very slow). Celestial Halo is a grinder capable of maintaining a very good pace and top class form at 2 miles over hurdles.
Value Is EverythingMarch 15, 2010 at 09:52 #282417Guys
What’s your views on the fast ground horses – is everything falling right for Go Native?
Just saw the Beeb weather forecast and it’s a mild, sunny day today and tomorrow. Cheltenham will probably water today, but we know how quick the course dries.
By tom afternoon and for Wednesday it could quite easily be good with only the odd good to soft patch i reckon.March 15, 2010 at 10:25 #282423Do you think the ground will dry out enough for the fast ground horses to hold a huge advantage?
We had a fairly severe winter so it may take a hell of a lot for the ground to be deemed proper good ground.
March 15, 2010 at 10:31 #282425Do you think the ground will dry out enough for the fast ground horses to hold a huge advantage?
We had a fairly severe winter so it may take a hell of a lot for the ground to be deemed proper good ground.
Agreed Ben. But Cheltenham have watered on and off for a week now, so it couldn’t have been that soft. We’ve had little rain here (i live in Bristol, not too far from Cheltenham) for a few weeks now.
It’s a beautiful day here – clear blue skies, sunny, temps forecast to get to 13celsius by 1/2 o’clock. Same for tom. Cheltenham forecast much the same. Quick drying course.
It’s also worth remembering that horses haven’t run on decent ground almost all winter when racing, so expect a few ‘surprises’. Thursday/Friday looks different – rain forecast – A Cheltenham Festival of 2 halves, so to speak!March 15, 2010 at 10:43 #282431Last season’s top novices seem to have done very well this term, especially against last year’s CL contenders. But as much as I respect Go Native and Medermit and while I think Starluck will be better suited to this course than the new, I still can’t get the image of Khyber Kim’s 2 easy wins out of my mind. I think he goes best fresh and can’t see him out of the first 3.
March 15, 2010 at 10:45 #282433Very true Wilts.
Cheers for the weather update.
A festival of 2 halves (ground anyway) just adds to the intrigue….
March 15, 2010 at 16:40 #282511As I live in Cheltenham, I can add to Wilts comments that we have had very little rain – there was some at the end of last week but it hadn’t made much difference to the fields around here, they’ve dried out an awful lot.
I don’t think we’ve had as wet a winter here as some might think – if I was pushed I’d say last year the run up to the Festival was wetter.
Today there was some cloud around in the morning but it was dry, around 12C and it’s a beautiful sunny late afternoon now.
March 15, 2010 at 17:42 #282534Come on Go Native you can do it
March 15, 2010 at 20:33 #282585AnonymousInactive- Total Posts 17716
Ginger
Love it when you start telling people what ‘form’ means, when you obviously haven’t a clue yourself.Well here I go again Reet.
It’s pointless measuring one horse against another unless one takes into account the circumstances on the day and the previous form of the protagonists.
Exactly. You measure a horse’s form over hurdles at 2 miles, up against his other form over hurdles at 2 miles. As I said we don’t need to judge the horse against the win at 2m3f (or indeed his flat form) we know how good he is in those "circumstances" because he’s run at 2m over hurdles enough times to judge him on that. His Elite run up against the Totesport Trophy is a fair comparisson, don’t you think?
Mamlook had indeed finished placed in the Cesarewitch, as he had the previous season, when also placed in the Ascot Stakes. All 3 flat races over further, and stiffer tracks, than the Elite, which ought to give you some clue about the horse’s nature.
Am not saying Mamlook is as good at 2m as he is at 2m3f. Just judge him on the 2m hurdle form. Staying flat horses can often run very well at only 2 miles over hurdles Reet. Royal Gait "won" an Ascot Gold Cup and then won a Champion Hurdle. Sea Pigeon won an Ebor etc.
Also, having finished closer in the previous year’s Cesarewitch, he then proceeded to be beaten 28l in the 2m Greatwood, just 4 weeks later. He has also only won one race since his novice hurdle days – over 2.5m, on soft ground at Ascot.
I remind you Reet, you said Mamlook was "half-fit", his Ces second suggests otherwise. Mamlook needs a fast run race at 2 miles (granted) which this was, look at the time! His win at Ascot was 2m3f incidentally. You seem to think a win is automatically better form than a placed run, it is not.
Horses invariably stay further over hurdles than they do on the flat, and both Celestial Halo and Mamlook are proven stayers in the latter sphere.
Both Mamlook and Celestial Halo may be equally as good, if not better over further, does not mean they are not capable of high class / top class form at 2 miles if they have proven themselves to be so.
Whiteoak never ran on the flat, but her only win since her novice days was over 3m1f.
That 3m1f race was very slowly run, (slow by over 27 seconds on good-soft) hardly gives a base for stamina comparrison. She won the Cheltenham Mare’s hurdle (as a novice) at around 2m 5f. Yet arguably put up an even better performance at Wincanton over 2 miles in the Kingwell. Second to Ashkazar. A run that persuaded connections to run in the Champion.
3 stayers contesting a 2m race around a sharpish track, it’s inevitable that one should win, unsurprisingly the one closest to the pace.
To use your word Reet, bunkem!
Celestial Halo’s whole hurdle record shows him to be a grinder over 2m, having not shown a burst of speed over the distance since his novice days. If a hen lays an egg in a pigsty, it might be wrong to assume a swine will hatch.
WTF do you think he’ll be wearing blinkers?The blinkers should help. I agree Celestial Halo is a "grinder", there are those with a better turn of foot in a sprint. But this is no sprint (unless they go very slow). Celestial Halo is a grinder capable of maintaining a very good pace and top class form at 2 miles over hurdles.
Aye, OK Ginger; have it your way.
Paul Nicholls put a new engine in the horse before the Elite, one that enabled CH to accelerate over 2m as he never had before – but he wasn’t happy with it, so he’s had it taken out since.March 15, 2010 at 22:24 #282634Go Native will travel like the best horse, and as long as Carberry times the delivery correctly, WBX will be paying out. There’s not much pace in the race and for my money the only danger is Khyber Kim.
March 15, 2010 at 23:07 #282647just a moment of epiphany(excuse the speling)maybe,and this is just a maybe.horses aren’t machines and don’t always run the same way.if it was that easy we’d all be rich.and perhaps trainers don’t always know straight away what a horses best distance is,and maybe we just spend to much time trying to decypher form lines and listening to stable rumours.so ..no more thinking,he can’t jump but he’d kick them flat and still win….**** ,just realised i’m on the wrong post…wtf c’mon dunguib
March 15, 2010 at 23:23 #282653It’s still
Zaynar
all the way, for me, and has been from day one. The appointment of Andrew Tinkler and the drying ground wont be an inconvenience to anyone, I’m sure. I think he’ll drift enough to gobble up some 10’s or bigger by the off; may even do it e/w.
March 15, 2010 at 23:35 #282658I think the likely slower than normal pace will be against ZAYNAR. He would have been better coming off a strong pace and I just cant see where that is going to come from tomorrow.
March 15, 2010 at 23:46 #282664punjabi
celestial halovicrory is beetween these two
cant have go native his form isnt that strong he struggled to beat starluck biggest lay of the meeting for meMarch 15, 2010 at 23:58 #282666You can give just about each of these an ew shout. A solid renewal of the race.
So many strong travellers, it wouldn’t surprise me if you could throw a blanket over them turning in.
Posted a few comments in this thread already, so I won’t repeat myself…
Punjabi
will not let his crown go without a fight and is still the only leading contender without a question to answer. Comes here in good heart and, as a great man once said "To be the man, you gotta beat the man".
With the easier course, drying ground and no apparent pace in the race (some pace is guaranteed – it’s the Champion Hurdle!),
Starluck
could go well at a decent price.
March 16, 2010 at 04:57 #282694I think the likely slower than normal pace will be against ZAYNAR. He would have been better coming off a strong pace and I just cant see where that is going to come from tomorrow.
I understand that, but seeing as the horse more than likely gets further than anything else in the race, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Tinkler is under strict orders to kick on early if there’s no pace. Could well rum them into the ground if the horse responds to such tactics.
March 16, 2010 at 06:11 #282700AnonymousInactive- Total Posts 17716
People insist there won’t be any pace, and it will favour speed horses such as Go Native, but races at the Festival are rarely run like that. Go through the results for the last 10 years and you might find a handful of races not run at a true pace, (none of them Champion Hurdles, incidentally).
In any race with half-a-dozen or more classy horses all trying to win (11 in the CH,imo) even if they don’t go too quickly for the first half-mile, these good horses will be vying against each other for most of the race, and every good jump or small burst of speed by one of the leaders puts more pressure on the field as a whole. Championship pace isn’t a myth, it holds true for nearly every race at the Festival, similarly at Royal Ascot, and most of the bigger and well-contested races races throughout the year.
I wouldn’t bet anything in these races in expectation of a modest pace, it just is not going to happen.My idea of the winner – Solwhit, with Punjabi a big danger.
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