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Just my view, but I believe Celestial Halo will be near enough to the pace to ensure a true gallop (which there almost always is anyway). Blinkers generally have the effect of sharpening a horse up the first time they are worn, and Ruby’s hardly going to let CH throw the race away by pulling too hard in the early stages, is he?
The horse needs the blinds because he isn’t quick enough imo, (much like Zaynar), and it would be pointless throwing away any advantage they gain in riding the horse against his undoubted stamina..Think the main point Mellish was making is the front runners went too fast. It’s o.k. setting a strong 2m pace, but it was more like a 1 1/2m pace last year. Even a "stayer" at the trip finds that difficult. The other prominent runners dropped away. Celestial Halo kept on, but it possibly cost him the race.
Hopefully Ebidiyan will make a good pace. Celestial Halo to be prominent without leading until going for home in earnest at the top of the hill (or earlier if pace is slow). It won’t be in Solwhit, Zaynar or Medermit’s interests (possibly Punjabi too) to have a slow pace. So doubt if it will be that slow.
Value Is EverythingChampion Hurdle
, the full field and my 100% book.
The Contenders:Not convinced of
Go Native
‘s ability to get up the hill. Did win the Supreme last year. Going supremely well rounding the turn, looked home and hosed before having his lead cut back hand over fist. Had Medermit not been hampered at the last, could’ve been a different result. Won the Fighting Fifth, easily quickening clear after funereal gallop. Much better suited by the test of speed than (amongst others) Solwhit in third. Kempton’s Christmas Hurdle is always a speed test. Came there cruising once more, yet struggled to hold on from another speedster Starluck. Whether it is idling or stamina, can’t get away from the fact Go Native is a weak finisher in truly run races. Trainer hasn’t been pleased with watering despite the Newcastle run being on soft; this suggests more stamina worries. Everyone wishes connections well for their possible million pound bonus, but his current price seems to drastically over-estimate his chance. 14% 6/1
Starluck
won his Cheltenham prep on the all-weather at Kempton, proving well-being if nothing else. On the face of it is good value. Improved short-head second to Champion favourite Go Native in Christmas Hurdle (level weights), in front just after the line. Yet is a much bigger price. However, Kempton’s sharp track and test of speed suits him down to the ground. Looked like winning Timeform Radio Hurdle at Haydock, cruising clear before tied up badly as stamina began to take effect. Beaten by Mr Thriller on very soft ground. Also travelled extremely well until the hill, when third in last year’s Triumph. Won at Cheltenham on reappearance, but that was a comparatively slowly run race against inferior rivals, on good-firm ground (speed test). Everything we know about Starluck suggests he won’t get home unless it is a slowly run Champion (unlikely). 5% 20/1
Solwhit
is most consistent, again found plenty under pressure to win the Irish Champion last time. Winner of 5 of his last 6 races, all at Grade 1. Only one to escape him was the Fighting Fifth (3rd) which turned in to a sprint. Suited by a test of stamina at 2m. Beaten most of these at one time or another. Short head victor over an in form Punjabi on May Day. Looked to have a great chance (has the best form) until scoping badly on Monday. It’s going to be a hard job to get him over this and back to full fitness in just 8 days, but now seems more likely to take his chance. Had it not been for the scare I would make him favourite and by some way. Although ability to handle good ground is not proven. 9% 10/1
Binocular
has also been under a cloud with muscle problems being diagnosed. There must be a reason for disappointing runs this term; racing as if something is hurting. Not jumping with usual fluency on any start. Nowhere near best to win at Ascot latest run. Also below form third to Go Native in Christmas hurdle. Short priced third to Punjabi in last year’s Champion after preparation disrupted by snow. Interesting if back to best, but that seems quite a big IF. Announced as a non-runner but has reportedly made great progress since. Jumped well in work under AP earlier in the week and now a probable runner. Now the same price as he was before those problems. 9% 10/1
Punjabi
has not shown his form this term either. Boylesports Hurdle run easily excused when fourth behind Khyber Kim, as never at his best fresh. Stable did not expect him to win at Haydock either. Alan King’s Medermit did get 4 lbs but won by a comfortable four lengths there. Afsoun, who is nowhere near as good as he used to be, only 2 lengths further back getting 8 lbs. Acts on any going. Found an ideal opportunity to get back to winning ways by the BHA at Kempton. Won in a canter but even so, did not need to be anywhere near best. Second, Border Castle coming back from a 21 month absence and third Supernoverre hopelessly outclassed and only beaten 19 lengths. However, it’s true to say Punjabi is at his very best in the spring, quite possible he’ll be back to full fitness to defend his crown. 11.5% 15/2
The one who split Binocular and Punjabi in last year’s Champion was
Celestial Halo
. Made most of the running there. Does need a sound pace at 2 miles, but all the other front runners were soundly beaten and probably went too fast, too soon. Winner and third came from further back. Can be marked up for that and put up possibly the best performance this season when giving 20 lbs and a 10 length beating to Totesport Trophy fourth and easy big Ascot handicap winner Mamlook. Celestial Halo went on to be beaten by Khyber Kim at Cheltenham in the Boylesports International. Lost by 2 ¼ lengths trying to give 4 lbs so still came out the best horse at the weights. However, ran very disappointingly in the Irish Champion, a long way below form in fourth. May be the ground was a little too testing, but it wasn’t that different to the Boylesports. Possibly not over his exertions there and has been inconsistent. Yet goes well fresh and will have had 7 weeks off when lining up this time. Is by Galileo, who’s progeny are often disadvantaged by very soft conditions. Trainer did say in a Cheltenham Preview “Celestial Halo has come in his coat and looks fabulous and hoping for better ground”. Wears blinkers for the first time and reportedly worked brilliantly in them. Not many prominent runners to take him on this year and looks excellent value. 11.5%
15/2
Khyber Kim
is the surprise package this year. Saw his first ever start over hurdles for Nicky Henderson at Newbury, and so taken with it even backed him at three figures for the Champion that same year. Then came disappointments and ran no sort of race in the Supreme behind Captain Cee Bee. Looking either of poor temperament or something hurting, though did achieve a fourth to Pierrot Lunaire at Aintree.
Reappeared at Newbury and should have won Gerry Fielden Hurdle, rider lost a stirrup at the last hurdle. Again did not reproduce that form. Even had one start over fences and blinkered (too free) in the County Hurdle.
Ran encouragingly in the Swinton after little over a month off (from another Aintree run). Given too much to do when fifth. Six month break followed before the Greatwood at Cheltenham. By now it seemed being fresh was important. Won well, coming through from the back under 11 stones 9 lbs. Only just over a month later he won the Boylesports, again at Cheltenham from Celestial Halo and Medermit. Admittedly getting 4 lbs from the former, doing nothing wrong again in the finish. So the best fresh argument is a little dented. Can say he’s at least equally effective fresh, this is going to be his first start since December 12th. All three wins on soft, though unlucky second on good-soft and fourth at Aintree on good. Good second at Newmarket on the flat on good-firm. Khyber Kim’s three wins are before January, but local tracks just as likely to be significant. Newbury being close to Nicky Henderson’s Lambourn base and Cheltenham close to Twister’s yard at Naunton Gloucestershire. May be I am looking too closely, he’s improving and seemingly now of equable temperament. 9/1 looks well worth chancing. 14%6/1
Medermit
was a little unlucky in the Supreme last year. Outpaced before staying on, just failing to get up. With winner Go Native stopping, had it not been for being slightly hampered at the last may have just got there. Both have improved since. Encouraging third to Khyber Kim in the Greatwood when stable in poor form. Comes out same as the winner at the weights. Then third to the same horse in the Boylesports. 5 ¼ lengths behind at level weights. 3 lengths behind Celestial Halo (who gave 4 lbs), but 8 in front of an unfit Punjabi. Would’ve done a little better too, but for a mistake 2 out. Showed a surprising amount of pace there and at Haydock (both on soft). May struggle though, back on a sounder surface. Again getting 4 lbs from a below form Punjabi 4 lengths behind, yet won with quite a bit in hand. Problem is Afsoun keeps the form down in third, unless you believe that horse was far better there than any other run this season. Medermit must be respected, is improving and Alan King’s stable is in much better form now. However, it’s difficult to see why he should be shorter than Khyber Kim in the betting. 10%
9/1
It’s difficult to know what to make of
Zaynar
‘s form. Lost unbeaten run, long way below form when length second at 1/14 at Kelso, trying to give 8lbs to Quweto. In trouble some way out and often goes through a flat spot in his races. Did so on penultimate start, not needing to be at his best to beat Cape Tribulation in Relkeel. Seemed to improve when beating Karabak on reappearance, giving him 2 lbs and a 6 length beating. However, Karabak’s stable was in poor form at the time and of those taking Zaynar on, only weak finisher Red Moloney in third probably ran to form. Ridden by Andrew Tinkler there who again takes the ride. Zaynar has not run at 2 miles since winning the Triumph in cheek pieces last year. Remember him working poorly at Kempton prior to that success. Headgear reapplied needs to have the same effect this time around, which is a distinct possibility. Weak in the betting of late which is a little disconcerting, though it may be something with his unfashionable jockey booking. 10.5% 17/2
The Outsiders:
The second string of the Meade stable. Just might stop them getting their Million Pound bonus. Can not understand why
Donnas Palm
is as big a price. 4 ½ lengths second, splitting Solwhit and Sublimity in the Irish Champion. Five year old who should still be improving. Has given 9 lbs and a 3 length beating to Triumph third and Coral Cup favourite Mourad. Possibly best with some give in the ground, but odds-on winner at the Punchestown Festival. Consistent, not out of the first two this season. With doubts about a lot of the favourites, 40/1 is too big to ignore. 4.75%
20/1
Won In the Dark
won two poor Irish conditions races. The form nowhere near good enough to even be placed. Beaten over 20 lengths by Donnas Palm in the Irish Champion. Did finish 4th in the Fighting Fifth to Go Native; but the sprint for home means form is very suspect. 0.25% 400/1
Jumbo Rio
is an admirable racehorse, one of the best juvenile hurdlers in Ireland last year, but does not seemed to have improved much since. Good third in the December Hurdle this term, 4 ½ lengths behind Solwhit getting 3lbs weight for age, possibly flattered. 0.75% 132/1
Ebadiyan
out-battled Muirhead giving him 5 lbs in the Limestone Lad Hurdle, making all. Runner up not at his best. That was at 2m 3f and is bred to stay. Long way below form last time out. Ran out when in front two out in last year’s Triumph. Difficult to see him figuring for his extrovert trainer. 0.125% 800/1
Muirhead
was over 5 lengths fifth to Punjabi in last year’s Champion and 2 ½ lengths second to Solwhit in November. However, since then he’s done his best to rekindle the worst attributes of the stable’s Harchibald. Not won since 2007. 0.2% 500/1
Raise Your Heart
has not run over jumps since 10/1 last in the Greatwood Hurdle in November. Towards rear in three flat races in Meydan Dubai including last time only on March 4th over 10 furlongs. Did win a listed race in Turkey at that trip. Nothing done over hurdles suggests he’s up to this. 0.05% 2000/1
Celestial Halo @ 11/1, Khyber Kim @ 9/1 and Donnas Palm @ 40/1 look value in my 100% book.
Value Is EverythingWould Go Natives stable run a horse against him that could stop them winning £1000,000? Either they think that Go Native hasn’t a chance of winning and Donnas Palm has or they think that Donnas Palm is just likely to get a bit of place money. Wouldn’t like to explain to connections and stable staff why the second string had beaten their first string if I was the trainer. [Although I suppose Paul Nicholls has that dilemma all the time, and could advise].It’ll be fascinating to see how both horses run. I hadn’t actually realised they were from the same stable.
Surelyit’s down to the owners moe. Donna’s Palm is plenty good enough to run in this and when you can have a horse capable of going close in a Champion Hurdle then why not run?
I realise that, and I’ll probably have an ew on Donnas Palm [my sort of price] but not a situation I’d like to be in; who’d be a trainer? If the situation does arise I shall be there padoockside to listen to the post race analysis!
Solwhit barely beat Punjabi (shd) on Solwhits preferred ground, on Good ground I think Punjabi will have far too much for Solwhit.
I know it’s easy to say without giving particulars but I’ve been reliably informed by someone within the Henderson stable that Binocular is 100% ready to run and there are no doubts whatsoever about him.
Would Go Natives stable run a horse against him that could stop them winning £1000,000? Either they think that Go Native hasn’t a chance of winning and Donnas Palm has or they think that Donnas Palm is just likely to get a bit of place money.
The stable always rated Donna’s Palm more highly rated than Go Native before his (DP)four race loss of form in the second half of last year…see earlier message with fuller explaination/proof etc
Wouldn’t like to explain to connections and stable staff why the second string had beaten their first string if I was the trainer. [Although I suppose Paul Nicholls has that dilemma all the time, and could advise].It’ll be fascinating to see how both horses run. I hadn’t actually realised they were from the same stable.
I realise that, and I’ll probably have an ew on Donnas Palm [my sort of price] but not a situation I’d like to be in; who’d be a trainer? If the situation does arise I shall be there padoockside to listen to the post race analysis!
Looks less likely to happen now anyway. Taken a walk out to over 100/1 on the exchanges, was 45/1 just a couple of days ago.
Value Is EverythingZaynar has drifted recently too, is this solely to do with Andrew Tinkler replacing AP? Or is he may be not going so well as usual at home?
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Worked like a pig on Friday Ginger
I get the feeling all the Henderson hurdlers will run stinkers on Tuesday because he’s so pre-occupied with his novice chasers. The guy cannot multi-task.
No Ebadiyan, Donnas Palm or Muirhead in Champion.
12 go to post.
Value Is EverythingWith Ebadiyan coming out and if Celestial Halo is not going to lead, where’s the pace coming from? Won In The Dark? there is less chance of this turning in to a strongly run race. I’ve reduced Zaynar’s chance because of that and increased Go Native (still make him very poor value) and Starluck.
Has Alan King suffered another drop in form?
Even if they think Solwhit is o.k. what have they to compare? The yard seem out of form anyway. Shame as I’d make him favourite if things were different. Twister has not had a winner since the racing Post Chase, but quite a few placed.Nicholls, Henderson, Flemming, O’Grady and Meade all seem in good form.
My revised 100% book.
Go Native 5/1,Khyber Kim 6/1
,
Celestial Halo 7/1
, Punjabi 15/2, Binocular 10/1, Zaynar 10/1, Medermit 10/1, Solwhit 10/1, Starluck 16/1, Jumbo Rio 125/1, Won In The Dark 150/1, Raise Your Heart 2000/1.
Khyber Kim available at 8/1, Celestial Halo 11/1.
Value Is Everything
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