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Only joking CS, it was just we seem to have different ideas on what to look for in a bet, then come to the same conclusion.
So long as both keep our noses in front
Don’t like betting each way when I believe the race is wide open. In the Champion there’s only one or two no hopers. Prefer to bet two, three or six horses to win. I like backing each way in races where I can see the winner coming from 5 or 6 horses,
Here’s one point on which we differ, if I can see more than three possible winners in a race I’d leave it well alone…before you ask, Donnas Palm, Won In The Dark, Go Native and at a stretch Jumbo Rio, OK thats four but at 40-1 I’ll make an exception
it’s a better value bet that way. e.g. backed both Get Me Out Of Here and Menorah in the Supreme. If I had an each way on Donnas at 40/1, the place would not get back all what I might lose on the rest anyway.
We’ll have to agree to disagree, when I worked for a bookie we were told never to bother referring win money to the supervisor, only EW, that told me something I’ll never forget
What is going to make the running?
With Paul Nicholls saying Celestial Halo is not going to be ridden aggressively, I can’t see much pace.
What is going to make the running?
With Paul Nicholls saying Celestial Halo is not going to be ridden aggressively, I can’t see much pace.
One of the Comer pair?
Ebadiyan would be the obvious one so.
Could we be seeing some of this in the Cheltenham winner’s enclosure!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVW7NCWAX7c
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNEjbNnqw_UEbadiyan would hardly be able to lead them for too long … Celestial Halo is a small horse and seems to jump better when he is clear of other runners.
Kargali and Royal And Regal are no longer declared to run.
I suppose the bookies have slashed the prices of Go Native and Punjabi forther
Ebadiyan would hardly be able to lead them for too long … Celestial Halo is a small horse and seems to jump better when he is clear of other runners.
Celestial Halo was headed by Marodima for a long way in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton. Jumped well, and put up one of the best performances seen all season.
Steve Melliish believes CH may be better given a lead these days.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Well Binocular is back and now runs which I must admit surpreises me. Nicky Henderson stated he wouldn’t run the horse unless he was convinced he was 100% ok.
We saw at Ascot that Go Native has an awesome turn of foot. My hope is that he goes for home at the top of the hill and Binocular can keep tabs on him even if he’s off the bridle to do it….I’m convinced that if Binoclaur’s within a couple of lengths of him he’ll outbattle him up the hill.
One thing they learned from last years race is the hill holds no fears and if anything it might be the very thing that wins him the race.
Can but hope!
"thehorsesmouth" wrote: Wouldn’t rule him out just yet, you never know
I also have a feeling that Binocular will turn up and be close to favouritism on the day!
You heard it here first folks
McManus will plough into Binny!
Ebadiyan would hardly be able to lead them for too long … Celestial Halo is a small horse and seems to jump better when he is clear of other runners.
Celestial Halo was headed by Marodima for a long way in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton. Jumped well, and put up one of the best performances seen all season.
Steve Melliish believes CH may be better given a lead these days.
Hey, sod Steve Mellish I said pretty much the same thing on Dec 13th – posted in the Bula topic :
I still don’t think Nicholls and Walsh have Celestial Halo’s tactics right. They keep making a lot of use of him and all this has come from last year when everyone got it into their heads that they had to take the sting out of Binocular’s finish. I think it cost celestial Halo last years Champion Hurdle as he never got a break in that race and unless they have a re-think they could give him no chance in 2010’s renewal.
The fastest part of a race is the early on rather than the last couple of furlongs (particularly at the festival) and Celestial Halo is always quick enough to go any pace the horse is far from short of speed. Look at him round Wincanton on his seasonal reappearance. Wincanton is a much sharper track than Cheltenham and he went round round there so quickly that Ruby claimed he "seemed to have more speed than last year". Thats because it was more of a speed test. It was good to firmish ground as well.
I’m not saying hold Celestial Halo up out the back but drop him in and give him a chance to really finish his races up the hill instead of trying to hang on, trust his speed a bit more.
Henderson now thinks Binocular will get further and the evidence of his Champion Hurdle run backs that up. It looks to me that people have called this all wrong – Binocular speed vs Celestial Halo stamina – it now looks more the other way round. Yes Binocular beat Celestial Halo at Ascot last year but there was plenty of cut and Celestial Halo was there to be shot at again and yes Binocular beat Celestial Halo at Aintree the year before but Celestial halo has never run well round Aintree anytime he’s tried.
I think it may well be time for Nicholls and Walsh to have a tactical rethink!
Mellish is just a copy cat.
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Ian
Would that be the same Celesetial Halo that was 2nd in a Melrose, ran in the St Leger, was beaten pointless at 5/2 on when held up behind Sentry Duty, that has led or raced prominently in any number of high class performances since (including 3 wins), and that the stable was seriously contemplating as a World Hurdle candidate earlier this season?
I think not. Imo the only reason the horse runs here is that owner/stable haven’t another worthwhile 2m candidate and already have the Stayer’s sewn up with Big Bucks. The blinkers look merely a desperate tactic to try and salvage something from the above situation, before they accept the inevitable- Total Posts 17716
My feelings on Celestial Halo are that he’s one of those horses who has a short life span at the top and once gone give the impression they will never be the same again. Then one day when you least expect it they bounce back.
My own feelings with him is that he had two very hard races in the Triumph and Champion Hurdle and it’s knocked the fight out of him and it could be along time before he recovers.
Every comment I have read or heard suggests there is no confidence behind him and I’ll be surprised if he runs any sort of race in the Champion Hurdle this time.
If I am wrong and he is 100% on the day I wouldn’t change the tactics that seen him just beaten in a photo last year. Obviously they worked or he wouldn’t have gone so close.
Mellish talks about how he never got a break in last years race. What he is suggesting they do so different I have no idea…….Ruby wants a lead in the race he’s already said so but where’s it going to come from? There’s no Hardy Eustace or Osana in this years race.
Celestial Halo was always going well within himself last year in the first 3 dropping him back a pace or two could mean the pace is somewhat slower this year if nothing decent makes it…There simply is anything in the race that will want to go on…if that is the case then the one horse who we know has bags of acceleration is Go Native along with Punjabi, Binocular and possibly Won in The Dark.
I honestly think the only way Celestial Halo can win is to run them into the ground and to do that he’ll have to go to the front as early as the 3rd hurdle.
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Wouldn’t rule him out just yet, you never know
I also have a feeling that Binocular will turn up and be close to favouritism on the day!
You heard it here first folks
McManus will plough into Binny!
Would take more than JP backing him to make him anywhere near fav on the day if Solwhit runs.
If I hadn’t backed him AP the most I would do is back him ew.
He’s never been right all season and no matter how pleased Tony was on Friday with him the element of doubt is still there.
I want the horse to win but I also want my own oil field and I doubt if I’ll get it:lol:
Mind you to think if Solwhit doesn’t run Medermit will be 2nd fav is beyond belief..I give that horse no chance, none, ziltch, zero
Solwhit runs!
And not only does he run, but in my opinion he wins !
He is as battle hardened as anything out there, and he definetely has enough toe. He just never seems to hit a flat spot, and has beat everything since Punchestown in a good paced race. Even to this day, as one of the favourites, i still think he is under estimated by quite a lot of people. Father Byrnes will forgive all of you non believers after the race.
Ian
Would that be the same Celesetial Halo that was 2nd in a Melrose, ran in the St Leger, was beaten pointless at 5/2 on when held up behind Sentry Duty, that has led or raced prominently in any number of high class performances since (including 3 wins), and that the stable was seriously contemplating as a World Hurdle candidate earlier this season?
I think not. Imo the only reason the horse runs here is that owner/stable haven’t another worthwhile 2m candidate and already have the Stayer’s sewn up with Big Bucks. The blinkers look merely a desperate tactic to try and salvage something from the above situation, before they accept the inevitableReet you may be right I’m certainly not claiming that I’ve called this correctly its just an opinion I have gained from studying the horse and its races. I still have the same opinion but should Celestial run a stinker under new tactics on Tuesday I’ll hold my hands up and admit I got it wrong. If you don’t form an opinion and take a stance in this game you’ve no chance of making a success of it.
Fist may well be right Celestial may have had enough of the battle, time will tell. I think the better the ground the better Celestial Halo’s chance given a non agressive ride.
Fist makes another point regarding the pace of the race. I don’t think it will be as strongly run as last year as there is no obvious trail blazer in the field. Despite needing a gallop neither Solwhit nor Zaynar are horses that are used to making the running and I doubt very much that either of them will on Tuesday.
If there is only an even gallop its hard to see past Go Native. However there is no such thing as a certainty especially at the festival.
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