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Ive always thought there is a lot of strength in depth in this division for a few years and I think there are a lot of horses, who, with evrything right could run to about 170 in this division. However IMO there is no outstanding horse guaranteed to put the rest to the sword.
This is why I still belive Dunguib will show up on the day and this whole thread will need to be re-written
Therefore I will be looking for value in the race.
IMO Solwhit is only at his very best on Bottomless ground and on anything better than soft he is very much beatable.
He looked pretty good on decent ground at Aintree last year
At his current price I wouldnt touch him.
Go Native is IMO a horse who wants better ground and in last years Supreme he got a perfect ride to come from the back in what looked to be a complete slog for those at the front. However IMO he didnt finish strongly enough in that race to suugest to me that he can cope with some of the competetition at this level if it is again a slog. Therefore where I would probably make him the favorite on what he’s done this season I wouldnt fancy touching him at any single figure prices.
Zaynar is clearly a decent horse and I can see him being in the first three here but his price is too short to be a decent e/w prospect IMO.
Medermit is a very honest and likeable horse but I dont think he wants better ground and I think Solwhit would beat him on softer ground and quite a few could beat him on gd-sft ground. At single figure prices I think he could make the frame but isnt one I’d care to back.
Khyber Kim is top class on his day, but his day probably involves there being a bit of cut and he does tend to be a bit of a rogue most of the time. I would want 25s or better to consider a bet on him.
Punjabi IMO can be ran out of a 2mile hurdle on gd-sft or worse but on better ground I think he’d be the best bet in opposition to Go Native.
Celestial Halo is my favorite horse in the division and he is always fine tuned for a best performance at the festival where his record is 1 and 2. Should put in a solid performance (ideally on gd-sft) and IMo he has to be a bet at 16-1. IMO if Nicholls ran a trailblazing pacemaker for celestial halo he’d be the most likely winner, but even without one he still has a great chance.
Starluck IMO is better suited to tracks like Kempton as can be run out of a 2mile hurdle a bit too easily. On Good ground which is probably his best I still think he’s poor value.
On Good Ground Sublimity IMO is capable of a decent performance but I would imagine that on good ground Celestial Halo would already be at the front and Im not confident at 20-1 that sublimity would catch Punjabi and Go Native in the chase but wouldnt write him off either.
At 100-1 a piece I think Muirhead and Won In The Dark are both capable of running a decent race on gd-sft.
Muirhead is tuurning into a real rogue, I agree Won In The Dark is probably the best value in the race, as I’ve been saying since his recent win
Muirhead on ground which IMO was quicker than he wanted finished 5th in the race last year, and two of the 4 that finished ahead of him arent there this year (his price on the exchanges is somewhat worrying but if he turned up I’d have an e/w chance on him). Won In the Dark is a horse who tavels very nicely on gd-sft or slightly better and I think Celestial Halo’s running style suits him very well and 100s it wouldnt shock me if he put in a decnt performance on his best terms.
At the minute it Celestial Halo at 16s and Won In The Dark at 100s, but thats very much in the hope that its gd-sft.
Get ready for an Irish 1-2-3-4
Its worth noting CS, that Aintree was heavily overwatered last year. The ground should have been decent if that hadnt happened, and I remember it well as it was one of the great annoyances of last season for me as the racing post went with a going description of good on the first day which it clearly was not and then they later changed the going descriptions to gd-sft which was probably optimistic.
Regarding Solwhit, where it’s hard to say exactly what the ground was at aintree, on all other form Solwhit appears to be a mud lover and where others may choose to believe he is not, I’ll bet that he is. We’ll probably know better in a couple of weeks.
the solwhit aintree race was over further so the going is less important, on gd over two miles he lacks the pace
Its worth noting CS, that Aintree was heavily overwatered last year.
Also worth noting in that case, Bulwark, that Solwhit has has winning form at 14f and 16f on Good-to-Yeilding – which is more or less what we can expect for the Tuesaday at Cheltenham, given the winter we have had and Claisse’s express desire to ensure that the meeting starts on no quicker than Good-to-Soft ground.
If Solwhit gets beaten, it will be because he wasn’t good enough – it won’t be because the ground was against him. He is sufficiently proven on the type of ground we can expect, and it’s a myth that he needs it bottomless to show his best form, imho.
I’m convinced that if Solwhit is beaten then it’s because Dunguib or Voler La Vedette have shown up and spoilt everyone’s party
If Paul Carberry hits the front on Go Native before the last I’ll streak naked up the hill behind them
No reason why he wouldn"t,he did last year and held on gamely!
I"ll make sure i"ve eaten my shrimp cocktail before the race!If Solwhit gets beaten, it will be because he wasn’t good enough
He"ll be thereabouts running on at one pace,Go Native for one will have way too much speed for him!
Is it possible for Dunguib to win the Supreme and then just hang around for the Champion as well? He’d have at least an hour’s break to wipe the small bits of sweat from himself, before going again…that should be enough!
Is it possible for Dunguib to win the Supreme and then just hang around for the Champion as well? He’d have at least an hour’s break to wipe the small bits of sweat from himself, before going again…that should be enough!
Is that you Ainsley?
No but I do make my own cup o’ soups
You must be putting something other than Crutons in your Soup if you think Dunguib could do that!
Zaynar: Official Rating 168 8/1
Celestial Halo: Official Rating 168 16/1
Solwhit: Official Rating 167 4/1
Khyber Kim: Official Rating 165 19/2
Medermit: Official Rating 164 9/1
Go Native: Official Rating 164 9/2
Punjabi: Official Rating 164 11/1
Starluck: Official Rating 161 16/1On official ratings there is 7 pounds between the top 8 in the betting.
I eliminate Kyber Kim because this horse has no winning form in the spring, he has only won in Autumn/Winter.
I eliminate Go Native because he only has a short burst of speed and something is bound to go past him on the run in.
I eliminate Punjabi because I still think Barry Geraghty will desert him in favour of Zaynar.
I eliminate Medermit because he could not win a handicap off 10-12, he has no winning form in the spring, also when in receipt of 4 pounds he finished 3 lengths behind Celestial Halo in December and despite this he is 7 points shorter in the betting….I don’t get it?
I eliminate Starluck because I feel his only chance to win will be on really fast ground and he is unlikely to get it.
This leaves Solwhit, Zaynar and Celestial Halo.
If the ground is soft I think it will be between Solwhit and Zaynar.
If the ground is fast I think it will between Zaynar and Celestial Halo
If the ground is good to soft I don’t know
If the ground is good to soft I don’t know
After all that, you dont know!
You were getting warm at 16/1 Celestial Halo!The overpriced horse in the race! I eliminate Go Native because he only has a short burst of speed and something is bound to go past him on the run in.
Dual Champion Hurdler Sea Pigeon had the same problem. I don’t know if you’ve heard of him.
Its worth noting CS, that Aintree was heavily overwatered last year.
Also worth noting in that case, Bulwark, that Solwhit has has winning form at 14f and 16f on Good-to-Yeilding – which is more or less what we can expect for the Tuesaday at Cheltenham, given the winter we have had and Claisse’s express desire to ensure that the meeting starts on no quicker than Good-to-Soft ground.
If Solwhit gets beaten, it will be because he wasn’t good enough – it won’t be because the ground was against him. He is sufficiently proven on the type of ground we can expect, and it’s a myth that he needs it bottomless to show his best form, imho.
I respect your opinion grassy, and if I remember correctly you were one of the first (if not the first) on here to mark solwhit out as a top class horse some time ago. But that’s just the way I personally see the horse and if he is beaten at cheltenham by anything I will take him to reverse the form on softer conditions in the future, no matter who it is beats him, as IMO he is the best around on bottomless ground, but IMO he hasnt in any way proven to be the best around with less cut underfoot yet. At 4-1ish in a very competitive field he just isnt a bet for me unless it comes up very soft. Thats just my opinion though, and much like everyone I have been wrong once or twice in life (but only once or twice…lol). Good luck for anyone who fancies him but he just iust for me on a better surface.
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