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I have just watched the Supreme Novices from 2009 and i have to say Go Native had the run of the race. I have backed Medermit, and i think if Choc delivers him late to go past Go Native, i cant see the Irish horse having the guts to dig in and get back infront.
I have just watched the Supreme Novices from 2009 and i have to say Go Native had the run of the race. I have backed Medermit, and i think if Choc delivers him late to go past Go Native, i cant see the Irish horse having the guts to dig in and get back infront.
I could see Medermit finishing in front of Go Native but the form of last years Supreme Novice is not as good as last years Triumph. What hurdle form is there from that race to support the first 2, whereas in the Triumph the form has been franked by Walkon,Mourad,Starluck and Reve De Sivola
Personally, I wouldn’t crab the 2009 Supreme Novices form, Go Native came through and won it well and has hardly let his supporters down this year. I think with the ground in his favour he is still the one to beat, although I do admit if he is delivered too early I wouldnt bet on him holding off a Solwhit Rally up the hill!
What’s a rouge CS? Have the Champion Hurdle contenders started wearing makeup?
I like it!!
Subliminal message …..I was thinking Nina should have ridden Muirhead- Total Posts 17716
I have just watched the Supreme Novices from 2009 and i have to say Go Native had the run of the race. I have backed Medermit, and i think if Choc delivers him late to go past Go Native, i cant see the Irish horse having the guts to dig in and get back infront.
I could see Medermit finishing in front of Go Native but the form of last years Supreme Novice is not as good as last years Triumph. What hurdle form is there from that race to support the first 2, whereas in the Triumph the form has been franked by Walkon,Mourad,Starluck and Reve De Sivola
The problem Medermit has is he won’t get near enough Go Native to put the horse under pressure. Both him and Zaynar are too slow in reacting to increases in pace and that will always be your downfall in the Champion Hurdle. The only way they will be involved IMO is if the others stop in front.
Solwhit is a different ball game. He jumps and travels very well in his races and if anything is going to swoop late I would expect it to be him…..It’s not just case of saying lets hold a horse up for a late run, it’s going well enough to be able to deliver a challenge.
I just can’t see them riding Go Native in such a way he’s hanging about to get into a fight/sprint up the hill. Noel Meade surely knows that horses like Clestial Halo, Punjabi, Zaynar and Solwhit would be hard to outbattle up the hill and will try and setttle the issue early and grab an advatage like he did in the Supreme……If he doesn’t and waits until the last he could easily still win but the chances he’ll get outbattled would be fairly high….unless of course he’s hack cantering half way up the run in and doesn’t do a Son of Harchibald
I have just watched the Supreme Novices from 2009 and i have to say Go Native had the run of the race. I have backed Medermit, and i think if Choc delivers him late to go past Go Native, i cant see the Irish horse having the guts to dig in and get back infront.
I could see Medermit finishing in front of Go Native but the form of last years Supreme Novice is not as good as last years Triumph. What hurdle form is there from that race to support the first 2, whereas in the Triumph the form has been franked by Walkon,Mourad,Starluck and Reve De Sivola
Somersby, Copper Bleu and Cousin VInny have all gone over fences with Somersby proving top drawer and Torphichen, Michael Flips and Golan Way who finished 9th, 10th and 11th respectively, a good 15 lengths behind Go Native, all have good handicap/listed form this year which gives the form a solid look.
The Triumph is also run on a different course and over slightly further which would have suited Zaynar being a grinder. Mourad and Reve de Sivola have proven it was a field of stayers bar Starluck.
There are too many quick horses in the field this year and I don’t think Zaynar will be able to go fast enough to be in front turning in, which is where I think he would need to be to stand a chance of winning.
A lot of emphasis being put on Go Native going the short way round, but how many unlucky losers actually get their head in front of their apparent lucky conqueror? Good horses win, unlucky/quirky horses don’t.
Mourad has hardly upheld last year’s Triumph form. The only race he won since was a mickey mouse contest. He was stuffed by Donnas Palm at Fairyhouse who was well beaten behind Solwhit in the Irish Champion Hurdle. He then had everything in his favour at Navan (getting 7lbs from War Of Attrition) and he still couldn’t get his head in front.
I just can’t see them riding Go Native in such a way he’s hanging about to get into a fight/sprint up the hill. Noel Meade surely knows that horses like Clestial Halo, Punjabi, Zaynar and Solwhit would
be hard to outbattle up the hill and will try and setttle the issue early and grab an advatage like he did in the Supreme
……If he doesn’t and waits until the last he could easily still win but the chances he’ll get outbattled would be fairly high….unless of course he’s hack cantering half way up the run in and doesn’t do a Son of Harchibald
I hope they do, because Go Native found absolutely nada when in front in last years’ Supreme, was just ambling up the hill, high head carriage, etc… Considering Medermit was hampered at the last, he didnt half get after Go Native up the hill.
I just can’t see them riding Go Native in such a way he’s hanging about to get into a fight/sprint up the hill. Noel Meade surely knows that horses like Clestial Halo, Punjabi, Zaynar and Solwhit would be hard to outbattle up the hill and will try and setttle the issue early and grab an advatage like he did in the Supreme……If he doesn’t and waits until the last he could easily still win but the chances he’ll get outbattled would be fairly high….unless of course he’s hack cantering half way up the run in and doesn’t do a Son of Harchibald
If Paul Carberry hits the front on Go Native before the last I’ll streak naked up the hill behind them
I just can’t see them riding Go Native in such a way he’s hanging about to get into a fight/sprint up the hill. Noel Meade surely knows that horses like Clestial Halo, Punjabi, Zaynar and Solwhit would be hard to outbattle up the hill and will try and setttle the issue early and grab an advatage like he did in the Supreme……If he doesn’t and waits until the last he could easily still win but the chances he’ll get outbattled would be fairly high….unless of course he’s hack cantering half way up the run in and doesn’t do a Son of Harchibald
If Paul Carberry hits the front on Go Native before the last I’ll streak naked up the hill behind them
For the love of god Paul take your time!
I still think Khyber Kim has every chance. The faster they go, the more it will suit him. Granted he will want a bit of cut, but providing there is and they go a good clip (which surely they will do), then I think he will take the all the beating.
Fist
If Paul Carberry hits the front on Go Native before the last I’ll streak naked up the hill behind them
Imperial Call
For the love of god Paul take your time!lol
I think Carberry will ride Go Native very similar to the way Harchibald was ridden when he just failed to beat Hardy Eustace.
Go Native has a short burst and I don’t see anything in the field coping with that. He idles but he’s not as much of a wimp as Harchibald and he stays better I don’t see a problem with him getting up the hill.
Ive always thought there is a lot of strength in depth in this division for a few years and I think there are a lot of horses, who, with evrything right could run to about 170 in this division. However IMO there is no outstanding horse guaranteed to put the rest to the sword.
Therefore I will be looking for value in the race.
IMO Solwhit is only at his very best on Bottomless ground and on anything better than soft he is very much beatable. At his current price I wouldnt touch him.
Go Native is IMO a horse who wants better ground and in last years Supreme he got a perfect ride to come from the back in what looked to be a complete slog for those at the front. However IMO he didnt finish strongly enough in that race to suugest to me that he can cope with some of the competetition at this level if it is again a slog. Therefore where I would probably make him the favorite on what he’s done this season I wouldnt fancy touching him at any single figure prices.
Zaynar is clearly a decent horse and I can see him being in the first three here but his price is too short to be a decent e/w prospect IMO.
Medermit is a very honest and likeable horse but I dont think he wants better ground and I think Solwhit would beat him on softer ground and quite a few could beat him on gd-sft ground. At single figure prices I think he could make the frame but isnt one I’d care to back.
Khyber Kim is top class on his day, but his day probably involves there being a bit of cut and he does tend to be a bit of a rogue most of the time. I would want 25s or better to consider a bet on him.
Punjabi IMO can be ran out of a 2mile hurdle on gd-sft or worse but on better ground I think he’d be the best bet in opposition to Go Native.
Celestial Halo is my favorite horse in the division and he is always fine tuned for a best performance at the festival where his record is 1 and 2. Should put in a solid performance (ideally on gd-sft) and IMo he has to be a bet at 16-1. IMO if Nicholls ran a trailblazing pacemaker for celestial halo he’d be the most likely winner, but even without one he still has a great chance.
Starluck IMO is better suited to tracks like Kempton as can be run out of a 2mile hurdle a bit too easily. On Good ground which is probably his best I still think he’s poor value.
On Good Ground Sublimity IMO is capable of a decent performance but I would imagine that on good ground Celestial Halo would already be at the front and Im not confident at 20-1 that sublimity would catch Punjabi and Go Native in the chase but wouldnt write him off either.
At 100-1 a piece I think Muirhead and Won In The Dark are both capable of running a decent race on gd-sft. Muirhead on ground which IMO was quicker than he wanted finished 5th in the race last year, and two of the 4 that finished ahead of him arent there this year (his price on the exchanges is somewhat worrying but if he turned up I’d have an e/w chance on him). Won In the Dark is a horse who tavels very nicely on gd-sft or slightly better and I think Celestial Halo’s running style suits him very well and 100s it wouldnt shock me if he put in a decnt performance on his best terms.
At the minute it Celestial Halo at 16s and Won In The Dark at 100s, but thats very much in the hope that its gd-sft.
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