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The fact is this years champion hurdle is as clear as mud with the first 9 in the betting holding some kind of chance on various form lines.
Nobody can argue with that Sea Pigeon,but now that it has transpired that Binocular hasn"t been right all season then
Celestial Halo
at 16/1 suddenly becomes a fantastic value bet e/w!
Again though, the Newcastle race was a laugh, and cannot be used for a guide to Cheltenham.
It’s not that tricky though is it?
The race will be decided, as so often, by ground and the way the race is run.
Strong pace and/or soft ground favours Solwhit/Punjabi/Medermit
Pace falls apart and/or goodish ground favours Go Native.Only other horse to factor in is Khyber Kim (also soft ground).
So on the day it should be simples, kind of
Hi Big Bucks you give Solwhit a chance, well Solwhit only beat Punjabi in a photo and Punjabi only beat Celestial Halo in a photo which means on ratings there is very little between them. You give Go Native a chance, yet he would have been beaten in another stride by Starluck at Kempton and would have been beaten easily if Starluck had not made a bad mistake earlier, and as you know Starluck was well beaten by Zaynar.
So can you please explain why you have dismissed Zaynar, Celestial Halo, Punjabi and Starluck?
Hi Big Bucks you give Solwhit a chance, well Solwhit only beat Punjabi in a photo and Punjabi only beat Celestial Halo in a photo which means on ratings there is very little between them. You give Go Native a chance, yet he would have been beaten in another stride by Starluck at Kempton and would have been beaten easily if Starluck had not made a bad mistake earlier, and as you know Starluck was well beaten by Zaynar.
So can you please explain why you have dismissed Zaynar, Celestial Halo, Punjabi and Starluck?
Starluck isn’t good enough. Halo has been disappointing (I backed him last year), Punjabi I’ve said is one of the likeliest winners if he preps well. Zaynar I’ve mentioned as extremely unlikely at the top of this page.
Form lines aren’t going to help you. This is about the pace of the race, tactical pace, and ground conditions allied to correct preparation, hence outlining it the way I have. I’m not GN’s biggest fan but he won the Supreme well given he was out in front a huge distance from home.
I think that Celestial Halo is as good a jumper of a hurdle as I have seen for a long time. Take a look at the rerun of his Triumph hurdle win and when he was beaten by Binocular at Ascot (this course not ideal for him). If Ruby can poach a 5 length lead at the start then I could see him winning the race, the horse will not be stopping at the finish, he was good enough to finish within 3 lengths of the winner in the St Leger.
So Ruby, if your reading this take the race by the scruff of the neck and make it a true test of jumping and stamina. Give the horse a breather on the downhill section approaching the 3rd last and then turn on the juice for the rest of the race.They tried that last year and got beat by a better horse, to my cost!
He’s just not in the same form as last year, Andy Stewart has been pretty honest about it I think.
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A lot of empahasis has been put on the fact Go Native’s wins came of very slow paces. I should know as I was one of those who were quick to point it out.
However hwen you watch him at Kempton the way he absolutely cruised past them was breathtaking. Ok he hasn’t beat Starluck by far but if ever a race was run to suit a horse it was that one. Give Starluck a steady pace to come off and he’s one helluva good horse.
I wouldn’t say the races he was beaten in last season by Hurricane Fly were exactly fast run. He failed at least twice to quicken when he should have but there has been no sign of that in his last two races. That to me must be considered a major plus.
The thing about Go Native is he has already shown he can produce the same turn of foot of a fast/decent pace in last years Supreme. Which without doubt was by far his best performance of the season.
It could very well be that he is much better suited by a fast pace than a slow pace. Add that to Starluck preference for a slow pace and his proximity to Go Native at Kempton probably means ziltch.
I just can’t see what’s going to go with him when the button is pushed. Looks a class horse in an average looking field to me.
I agree. I have a pretty large ap bet on Solwhit at 5s and 6s but I am now firmly in the Go Native Camp. Will wait for NRNB or on the day now, but provided the ground is no worse than G-S i think GN’s turn of foot will win it for him. Looked very good at Kempton and was far more superior than winning margin suggests
Go Native’s Supreme Hurdle win at last year’s festival was very telling; in as much that the horse needs to be held up (ala Sea Pigeon ) until the last possible moment. Although Go Native was pulling a train turning for home, once hitting the front, his stride was shortening as Merdermitt made rapid headway on him.
Like Solwhit, I like him a lot, and think either could claim the big hurdle prize, although my slight preference is for Go Native – that is, presuming Mr Philip Fenton doesn’t re-route his charge at the eleventh hour, which will radically alter my thinking.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
A lot of emphasis has been put on the fact Go Native’s wins came of very slow paces. I should know as I was one of those who were quick to point it out.
It could very well be that he is much better suited by a fast pace than a slow pace. Add that to Starluck preference for a slow pace and his proximity to Go Native at Kempton probably means ziltch.
I just can’t see what’s going to go with him when the button is pushed. Looks a class horse in an average looking field to me.
Your second statement stands more scrtiny than your first.
I went back through his form recently and discovered that the times he’s been beaten are those where the race has been very slowly run: all 4 were more than 12 seconds outside the standard time. He’s a fantastic traveller for whom they can’t go too fast, the difference being that after a fast run race he’s picking off tired horses- he couldn’t do that against the mare at Down Royal, in the farcically run champion novice at Punchestown last year or against Hurricane Fly at Leopardstown as well as in a maiden hurdle at Galway.
I’ve backed him though my main hope is Solwhit and see him as the biggest danger. If Celestial Halo goes off like a scalded cat he’s got a right chance.He’s a fantastic traveller for whom they can’t go too fast
I couldn’t agree more. The widely-held view that Go Native is best suited by a slow pace is based presumably on his Fighting Fifth win but for me his performance in that race was all the more creditable because it was achieved in circumstances which didn’t suit him. The stronger the pace, the better.
i’m new to the site, but total agree with positive go native comments, proved in 09supreme win that his best form is under fast run race,but fighting fifth win shows he can handle slow run races too. with recent defections and turn ups, surely GN looks value.
I’ve just checked the Racing Post analysis for The Fighting Fifth and, as I’ve pointed out in the past, they agree that Go Native is less handicapped by a slow early pace than Solwhit
QUOTE…………
"Solwhit had run out a ready winner on heavy ground at Punchestown on his seasonal return and already confirmed his versatility for a sound surface when winning at Aintree last term.He had his chance, but was one of the worst affected by the lackof an early pace and should not be fully judged on this display.
He was pushed out in the ante-post betting for the Champion Hurdle, but it wouldn´t be surprising to see him reverse this form in March and he remains one to follow."
I’ve felt all along that Solwhit and Al Elie suffered most that day and despite Solwhit’s win over Muirhead and Hurricane Fly in a similarily run race I’d say he beat a rouge and an out of sorts horse that day.
His only other defeat was also a tactical (3 horse) affair and as I cannot recall a "cat and mouse" Champion Hurdle, I feel confident Solwhit will finish in front of Go Native whether he wins or not I feel will depend on the participation or not of Dunguib and/or Voler La VedetteThe penny will drop sooner or later,that last years Supreme Novice hurdle holds the key to success at this years festival!
The second race of the meeting is the Arkle,once Somersby romps home in that,bothGo Native
and
Medermit
will get lumped on!Go Native will defineately go off favourite,so long as we get the usual ground in March,it will be fresh good ground and the pair of them are the biggest dangers to
Celestial Halo
! I might even have a rev Tricast! "Money talks,money talks,dirty cash i want you dirty cash i want yours Grass!"
keep calm APK! nearly spat my stella out then! any CH tricast has gotta include Solwhit. only a ferry strike will keep outa the frame. i like ur positive thinking, but an irish one-two looks safer bet for Ranse’s dirty cash!
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