- This topic has 880 replies, 116 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 8 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I still like Zaynar, and the other pick (albeit for a BF place) is Khyber Kim.
A bad race does not mean a bad horse, IMHO (and, yes, as a Kauto fan, I apply that to Denman, too!)
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
- Total Posts 17716
If Go Native doesn’t win the Champion Hurdle now I’ll eat my hat……dson’t have a hat mind you.
I would imagine Nicky had Zaynar about 85-90% fit for that and obviously the winner is no slouch. If I had backed Zaynar for the Champion Hurdle I wouldn’t be overly worried about getting beat but would be worried about the way he jumped. If he jumps like that in the Champion Hurdle he won’t be sighted.
Thing about horses when they are not fully fit is they can jiump like pigs so there’s no guarantee he’ll jump poorly at Cheltenham.
Thing is we lost Hurricane Fly, Punjabi hasn’t been fot all season and may not get the run he desperatly needs on Saturday, Celestial Halo seems a shadow of himself and Binocular is on the sick list.
That leaves Solwhit who may well find the race too quick for him at CH pace, if the ground is fast, and Go Native who looks to now have the race at his mercy…..Damned if I am backing him AP though been enough shocks lately.
The average sp of the Champion hurdle over the past 3 years is 16/1 and over 20 years is over 10/1, so I would be hoping the average continues with either Celestial Halo or Zaynar
By essence an avearge is the mean of prices above, and below your 10/1. Therefor the trend would continue with any price.
No doubting the fact that it’s an intriguing renewal this year,lots of ifs and buts.
I said this last week and nothing I’ve seen since has changed my mind.
Khyber Kim is going to win the Champion Hurdle.
His form is as solid as a rock,he’s improving nicely and will go to the big race fresh and ready to do himself justice.
He promised a great deal earlier in his career,had a blip for whatever reason,didn’t take to chasing but showed he was still more than capable with a few very promising runs at the back end of last year.
He is now showing why they’ve always thought so highly of him.
He wins it coming late,and going away.
And still available at a very decent price.Not sure how his form is high class exactly. Only reason it’s thought of as so is because Medermit won a trappy terrible trial at Haydock. Afsoun had a chance 2 out ffs. The runner-up ran in Ireland and was destroyed.
- Total Posts 17716
Surely now Philip Fentom has got to run Dunguib?
Go Native’s owner will be firing out Ave Maria’s every 5 minute’s hoping Dunguib doesn’t change, a million pound bonus is a lot of sheckles.
Even Willie Mullins should have a go with Mikael if he doesn’t get a run into him over fences……the way it’s working out this is not the best Champion Hurdle by a long way.
Fist you have changed your opinion in the race as you couldnt see past Binny,and you felt Go Native wasnt good enough,Im still with the Native but im fearing Kyber kim
I think Go Native will win easily. He’ll travel better than anything else, will jump as well as anything else and after the last he’ll destroy them with a turn of foot that nothing else has. Should be 2/1 / 9/4 favourite, god knows how he isn’t.
I think Go Native will win easily. He’ll travel better than anything else, will jump as well as anything else and after the last he’ll destroy them with a turn of foot that nothing else has. Should be 2/1 / 9/4 favourite, god knows how he isn’t.
Medermit was a neck behind him at Cheltenham last season, and that was with Medermit being blocked off in running after the last flight.
He will be there or there abouts, which is why he is my only bet for Cheltenham so far, never usually bet AP but this looks a great bet.
It’s fair to say that most years it’s pretty much a given that the Champion Hurdle will be a true run race but I’m really struggling to see where the pace is likely to come from this year. Must be a slight concern for those on Celestial Halo, Punjabi, Solwhit, Zaynar etc.
I think Go Native will win easily. He’ll travel better than anything else, will jump as well as anything else and after the last he’ll destroy them with a turn of foot that nothing else has. Should be 2/1 / 9/4 favourite, god knows how he isn’t.
Medermit was a neck behind him at Cheltenham last season, and that was with Medermit being blocked off in running after the last flight.
He will be there or there abouts, which is why he is my only bet for Cheltenham so far, never usually bet AP but this looks a great bet.
Yep, and Khyber Kim has comfortably beaten Medermit twice at Cheltnham this year. It’s all a bit of a muddle really
thehorsesmouth
18 Feb 2010, 13:27Postby thehorsesmouth on 18 Feb 2010, 13:27
Chelt,I’m as big a fan of Voler as anyone, and I mean anyone, but I very much doubt she’s 13 lengths better than Go Native. Imo she’s as good if not better, but not 13 lengths better.
That’s how I read it untill I watched the replay again and used Luska Lad as a benchmark, now I’m not so sure
VLV was also getting (I think) 9lbs when they met.
I really don’t know what to make of Go Native. The way he was despatched by Hurricane Fly last season, just makes me sceptical about the amount of improvement he may have made this season. I also am quite confident that he won’t find as much off the bridle as expected – he didn’t the twice against HF, or against VLV(admittedly, he wasn’t beaten-up behind the mare), and given his sometime tendency to stop when in front (Supreme Novices and Christmas Hurdle), I have to be against him in the Champion Hurdle.
Having just watched VLV v. GN again I’m more imressed than on the day, Voler got just as an easy ride as Go Native got, check half way up the run in, Barry’s obviously not realised how far she’s pulled away from the field and he’s just about to give her a crack to keep her up to her work when he looks twice under his whip arm and then gets the pipe and slippers out and starts pulling up well before the post. I looked a very long 13 lengths to me, agreed she got 9lbs but she’ll get 7lbs mares allowance if she ran in the CH and most other Grade 1s.
Which brings me to For Bill, Voler and For Bill are two exceptional mares, indeed two of the best hurdlers in Ireland, surely they’ll have a big advantage getting a 7lbs allowance whatever their taget? Sounds too much to me, I’m sure it used to be 4lbs way back.I’m prepared to forgive Solwhit the Newcastle run etc,…….cut………
He has the least question marks against him, imo.NOBODY can argue with that, surely?
I think Go Native will win easily. He’ll travel better than anything else, will jump as well as anything else and after the last he’ll destroy them with a turn of foot that nothing else has. Should be 2/1 / 9/4 favourite, god knows how he isn’t.
Medermit was a neck behind him at Cheltenham last season, and that was with Medermit being blocked off in running after the last flight.
He will be there or there abouts, which is why he is my only bet for Cheltenham so far, never usually bet AP but this looks a great bet.
Yep, and Khyber Kim has comfortably beaten Medermit twice at Cheltnham this year. It’s all a bit of a muddle really
Exactly,Duke.
Khyber beats Medermit every time.
So if you fancy Medermit to go close you can expect the Naunton nag to be even closer.
Ignore this one at your peril.
It’s going to win.Yep, and Khyber Kim has comfortably beaten Medermit twice at Cheltnham this year. It’s all a bit of a muddle really
Yes, you are correct.
Medermit was giving KK 3lbs in the Greatwood i think, and they were off level weights in the BULA.
Will be interesting to see.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.